D&D and the rising pandemic

[CleverNickName]

I'll check back in two weeks and see if this was all just hype.

I wrote that on March 27th. The total number of people in the United States who had died from this pandemic at that time was 1,695...400 of whom died on the 27th alone.

As of today, 5,808 people in America have died from this pandemic so far, with 1,049 of those deaths happening just yesterday (Source). The number of casualties more than tripled in six days. It will likely triple again in another 6 days.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

(FWIW, I’m liking the tracking of stats, not the actual story the stats are telling.)

 

[FrogReaver]

This article concerned me about U.S. testing.

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry

Basically says tests could be yielding significant false negatives. Thoughts?

 

[FrogReaver]

My current projection is that we will have about 20,000 U.S. deaths by 4/9 (a week from today).

We currently sit at 5,865

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

 

[Zardnaar]

This article concerned me about U.S. testing.

Questions About Accuracy of Coronavirus Tests Sow Worry

Basically says tests could be yielding significant false negatives. Thoughts?

Once it gets to a certain point tests don't matter.

Count body bags.

 

[FrogReaver]

Once it gets to a certain point tests don't matter.

Count body bags.

Yep. I think New York States test count is already at capacity. They don't budge for 2-3 days and then they add a few thousand more and don't budge.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA. In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease. So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it. Now they aren't.

Hmm... is this right? How are you figuring this?
To ballpark, I looked up 2017 numbers: Number 1 killer was heart disease, at 647k for that year. I'm just assuming that this year's numbers are close-ish to that year's, and crudely guesstimating that through March should be about a quarter of that number. That yields something in the neighborhood of 160k. Same reasoning for cancer (Number 2 killer) yields ~150k in Q1; and for car accidents, ~42k.
Current COVID-19 deaths (~5900 at this writing) are nowhere near any of those. What am I missing?

Now with that said, what I can see is that by end of June, COVID-19 could be 90k-95k, if IHME's middle-of-the-road projections prove correct. That may well exceed car accidents, expected to be in roughly 80k-90k using 2017's numbers. (Actually, I wonder if car accidents will drop significantly this year, since fewer people are driving fewer miles thanks to the pandemic?)

 

[FrogReaver]

Hmm... is this right? How are you figuring this?
To ballpark, I looked up 2017 numbers: Number 1 killer was heart disease, at 647k for that year. I'm just assuming that this year's numbers are close-ish to that year's, and crudely guesstimating that through March should be about a quarter of that number. That yields something in the neighborhood of 160k. Same reasoning for cancer (Number 2 killer) yields ~150k in Q1; and for car accidents, ~42k.
Current COVID-19 deaths (~5900 at this writing) are nowhere near any of those. What am I missing?

Now with that said, what I can see is that by end of June, COVID-19 could be 90k-95k, if IHME's middle-of-the-road projections prove correct. That may well exceed car accidents, expected to be in roughly 80k-90k using 2017's numbers. (Actually, I wonder if car accidents will drop significantly this year, since fewer people are driving fewer miles thanks to the pandemic?)

Speaking of it's probably good to go update my mileage estimate with my insurance company. Silver Lining!

 

[Umbran]

Basically says tests could be yielding significant false negatives. Thoughts?

Could be. But, lots of things could be.