D&D and the rising pandemic

[Dannyalcatraz]

The governor of Georgia- home state of the CDC- just found out in the last 24hrs that Covid-19 could be spread by asymptomatic carriers.

‘We Didn’t Know That Until the Last 24 Hours’: Georgia Gov. Says He Just Found Out People without Symptoms Can Spread Coronavirus

While announcing a statewide shelter-in-place order on Wednesday, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, a Republican, said that he had just been informed that asymptomatic individuals could spread the coronavirus.The illness "is now transmitting before people see signs….Those individuals could have been...

www.yahoo.com

Is it any wonder why our battle against the virus is going the way it is?

See also:

Engineer accused of crashing train said he was 'suspicious' of nearby coronavirus relief ship, authorities say

A train engineer faces federal charges after he allegedly admitted to intentionally derailing a train Tuesday near the USNS Mercy, a ship sent to Los Angeles to ease the burden of hospitals treating coronavirus patients, according to the Department of Justice.

www.cnn.com

And:

 

[Azzy]

So, can reckless endangerment and criminal negligence be invoked here?

 

[Ogre Mage]

The NYT has a graphical map and story entitled "Where America Didn't Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread":

Stay-at-home orders have nearly halted travel for most Americans, but people in Florida, the Southeast and other places that waited to enact such orders have continued to travel widely, potentially exposing more people as the coronavirus outbreak accelerates, according to an analysis of cellphone location data by The New York Times.

Where America Didn't Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread

 

[Zardnaar]

The governor of Georgia- home state of the CDC- just found out in the last 24hrs that Covid-19 could be spread by asymptomatic carriers.

‘We Didn’t Know That Until the Last 24 Hours’: Georgia Gov. Says He Just Found Out People without Symptoms Can Spread Coronavirus

While announcing a statewide shelter-in-place order on Wednesday, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, a Republican, said that he had just been informed that asymptomatic individuals could spread the coronavirus.The illness "is now transmitting before people see signs….Those individuals could have been...

www.yahoo.com

Is it any wonder why our battle against the virus is going the way it is?

See also:

Engineer accused of crashing train said he was 'suspicious' of nearby coronavirus relief ship, authorities say

A train engineer faces federal charges after he allegedly admitted to intentionally derailing a train Tuesday near the USNS Mercy, a ship sent to Los Angeles to ease the burden of hospitals treating coronavirus patients, according to the Department of Justice.

www.cnn.com

And:

Darwin awards perhaps.

Warned my American friends two weeks ago tomorrow.

At the time Italy had 3000 dead. One week later it was 10k.

 

[Umbran]

We like to think of ourselves as a rational, intelligent species. But, well....

 

[Zardnaar]

We like to think of ourselves as a rational, intelligent species. But, well....

You must be an optimist.

My view tends to be we're self aware sentient monkeys with cell phones and nukes.

Some of our cousins fell down the stairs and hit their heads a few times on the way down.

Monkeys might be smarter come to think of it.

Cops here are clearing beaches and can throw transgressors in the can. There's a hotline to dob in the morons.

Civil liberty types are complaining, essentially we are a police state atm. They can drag your ass off and throw you into enforced quarantine.

Some law from 1956.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

So, can reckless endangerment and criminal negligence be invoked here?

Depends on the local laws and the locals who enforce them.

 

[Umbran]

Meanwhile, one manufacturer of gaming materials finds something useful they can do with their shut-down shop:

Wyrmwood Gaming and COVID-19

So, Wyrmwood, makers of dice towers, boxes, gaming tables, and the like, has had to mostly close their shop due to the epidemic. They keep a skeleton crew around to do some shippign, of things made at their crafter's homes. And then they realized they could make something health care workers...

www.enworld.org

 

[NotAYakk]

Time travel back two weeks and see if it would be all hype then.

On Mar 14 there where 75k cases outside china. Today there are more than 100k cases in the USA.

It sure seems plausible that in 2 weeks, death counts in the USA will be similar to death counts worldwide, outside of china, today, plus 33%ish.

As a ballpark number. So 27k-3k, plus 33% is a plausible 32,000 dead in the USA. Now this is just a plausible one; my point is going from 75k diagnosed cases to 25k dead in 2 weeks is typical.

How is that prediction coming? Mar 28 (5 days ago), I said 2 weeks to 25k-33k deaths in USA is plausible.

USA on Apr 1 had 5200 total deaths (Apr 2 not done yet). On Mar 28 they had 2220. That is 4 days, and 2.34x deaths, or 23.7% per day.

1.237^14 is 19.64x

2220 * 19.64 is 43,600.

So the USA is ahead of schedule.

Note that the USA now has 240,000 cases diagnosed. When the world had 240,000 cases diagnosed (Mar 19), 10 days later (Mar 29) they had 723,000 diagnosed, and 34,000 dead. So we are on track there too.

Going from 240,000 diagnosed to 1 million has taken 14 days. So on or about April 16, the USA could have 1 million Covid-19 cases diagnosed.

Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA. In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease. So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it. Now they aren't.

USA population growth is about 0.7% per year, or about 5753 per day (last year). USA has 1049 deaths/day on Apr 1. At 23.7% growth rate, the USA is 8 days away from population decline.

On or about April 9th, 2020, US population starts declining due to Covid-19 (unless the death curve moves; 8 days isn't very long, and NYC's severe isolation didn't start early enough to prevent it from continuing to grow).

In late April/early May, the same may happen to the entire world.

 

[Zardnaar]

How is that prediction coming? Mar 28 (5 days ago), I said 2 weeks to 25k-33k deaths in USA is plausible.

USA on Apr 1 had 5200 total deaths (Apr 2 not done yet). On Mar 28 they had 2220. That is 4 days, and 2.34x deaths, or 23.7% per day.

1.237^14 is 19.64x

2220 * 19.64 is 43,600.

So the USA is ahead of schedule.

Note that the USA now has 240,000 cases diagnosed. When the world had 240,000 cases diagnosed (Mar 19), 10 days later (Mar 29) they had 723,000 diagnosed, and 34,000 dead. So we are on track there too.

Going from 240,000 diagnosed to 1 million has taken 14 days. So on or about April 16, the USA could have 1 million Covid-19 cases diagnosed.

Currently, Covid-19 is the #3 cause of death in the USA. In a few days it will pass Cancer and Heart Disease. So for everyone who said "we shouldn't be worried, car accidents are more dangerous", well, you fixed it. Now they aren't.

USA population growth is about 0.7% per year, or about 5753 per day (last year). USA has 1049 deaths/day on Apr 1. At 23.7% growth rate, the USA is 8 days away from population decline.

On or about April 9th, 2020, US population starts declining due to Covid-19 (unless the death curve moves; 8 days isn't very long, and NYC's severe isolation didn't start early enough to prevent it from continuing to grow).

In late April/early May, the same may happen to the entire world.

Early March I thought it would get thousands but less than those shot to death.

12 days ago give or take warned my friend 9/11 type numbers every 1-3 days but right through the country.

Think I got accused of panic spreading here when it hit 300 odd a day.

I wasn't expecting Italy levels of bungling, turns out Italy may have done better.