D&D and the rising pandemic

[FrogReaver]

U.S population 327 million

Current Cases 104,126

We are 13 doubling periods till the entire U.S. population would be infected.

Current doubling period appears to be 2-3 days in the U.S.

Doubling period will slow as more and more become infected and/or if more draconian stay at home measures are taken. Unsure how to model this.

Bottom line - we aren't many weeks away till a significant % of our population has the virus.

 

[NotAYakk]

I'll check back in two weeks and see if this was all just hype.

Time travel back two weeks and see if it would be all hype then.

On Mar 14 there where 75k cases outside china. Today there are more than 100k cases in the USA.

It sure seems plausible that in 2 weeks, death counts in the USA will be similar to death counts worldwide, outside of china, today, plus 33%ish.

As a ballpark number. So 27k-3k, plus 33% is a plausible 32,000 dead in the USA. Now this is just a plausible one; my point is going from 75k diagnosed cases to 25k dead in 2 weeks is typical.

 

[CleverNickName]

As a ballpark number. So 27k-3k, plus 33% is a plausible 32,000 dead in the USA. Now this is just a plausible one; my point is going from 75k diagnosed cases to 25k dead in 2 weeks is typical.

I know, I was being facetious.

 

[Sadras]

My list of countries to watch include Mexico and Brazil.

I'd put South Africa on that list too. We have seen a huge increase in infections in just a few days - despite early measures taken by the president we did not have the necessary testing kits. A sizeable part of our population is uneducated, has poor housing facilities and is lacking in many basic amenities due to our past. Now couple that with ignorance and you have a recipe for disaster.

We don't have nearly the financial stability that Italy or Spain have so we are bleeped.
A voice note from the head of the Virology at one of the hospitals here who have been in constant communication with Italy and Switzerland said we are likely to see our peak by end April beginning May with the full force hitting up to August.

She also said that once people will require ventilators (i.e. develop respertory symptoms) they wont be able to be taken off as it creates irreversible lung damage which means they cannot be taken off them - they technically need lung transplants to recover. So they will be refusing people over the age of 65 as it just won't be worth it. There's just not enough ventilators.
The really ill some 15% will not be able to be catered to - which will rise the mortality rate particularly if this spreads to the entire population.

Italy has had around 50 doctors die and over 6,000 medical staff infected.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'd put South Africa on that list too. We have seen a huge increase in infections in just a few days - despite early measures taken by the president but we did not have the necessary testing kits. A sizeable part of our population is uneducated, has poor housing facilities and is lacking in many basic amenities due to our past. Now couple that with ignorance and you have a recipe for disaster.

We don't have nearly the financial stability that Italy or Spain have so we are bleeped.
A voice note from the head of the Virology at one of the hospitals here who have been in constant communication with Italy and Switzerland said we are likely to see our peak by end April beginning May with the full force hitting up to August.

She also said that once people will require ventilators (i.e. develop respirotary symptoms) they wont be able to be taken off as it creates irreversible lung damage* which means they cannot be taken off them - they technically need lung transplants to recover. So they will be refusing people over the age of 65 as it just won't be worth it. There's just not enough ventilators.
The really ill some 15% will not be able to be catered to - which will rise the mortality rate particularly if this spreads to the entire population.

Italy has had around 50 doctors die and over 6,000 medical staff infected.

EDIT
* Italian doctors have confirmed with her they do not get a patient on a ventilator off a ventilator because they have experienced patients get a massive systemic ARDS response and it institutes an immediate pulmonary fibrosis which means irreversible lung damage. A lot of this information was not released by China but only saw the light of day once it hit Europe. She also mentioned that the thinking within the medical community is this virus likely originated in China earlier than November-December 2019.

Reality is kicking in here. We're in bubble's. Each bubble is supposed to self isolate which isn't always possible.

My wife works for a freight company that counts as essential. Good news us we can get stuff the general population can't.

Hand sanitizer. Downside is she is still exposed and one if her workmates his wife works in the hospital.

We're not 100% sure about job security.

Still we're lucky compared to a lot.

 

[Umbran]

Apparently, the US is going to fail so utterly in dealing with the crisis that they will surpass the entire world in deaths by several times.

As of March 26th, the average of expert opinions (from a weekly survey of infectious disease researchers from institutions around the United States) was that covid-19 would cause almost a quarter of a million deaths in the USA in 2020. And, by the same measure, hospitalizations are apt to peak in May. This is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

There is a large uncertainty on these estimates, of course. But most of that uncertainty is about how high the number will go, not how low it will be.

Experts Say The Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But The Trajectory Is Still Unclear

Graphics by Anna Wiederkehr The extent of the COVID-19 crisis is no more certain this week than it was last. This is our second week following a weekly survey o…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Hopefully, whatever lessons we learn from this pandemic in the next couple years will not be forgotten by 2070.

 

[FrogReaver]

Cat in Belgium first known to test positive for coronavirus: report

Someone the other day was saying pets couldn't get/spread it. Looks like that may not necessarily be the case.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

I am Spanish and I live in a region where the epidemic is slower, but I worry really because we have got the worst goverment for this health crisis. Sometimes there are supects they really want to terminate. My level of English isn't enough good to explain all the details, but there are going official reports against the president Pedro Sanchez for criminal negligence. This guy is going to the trials to be judged.

I am very worried, but also furious.

 

[Umbran]

Someone the other day was saying pets couldn't get/spread it. Looks like that may not necessarily be the case.

"Someone" was me.

640,000 cases in humans worldwide. ONE cat. ONE dog. And the dog was not shedding virus at levels in which they could reasonably infect a human being.

So, I think my prior statement still stands.