D&D and the rising pandemic

[FrogReaver]

Ah, gotcha. I see where you're coming from now.
It is a telling statistic; that's why I wanted to understand it. Thanks for the clarification!

My issue with that comparison is that it's like comparing a marathon runner to a sprinter only over a short time frame. That's one way to use statistics to paint a picture that's lacking a lot of context.

I expect our efforts in the U.S. to keep this from being as deadly as cancer here over the course of the year.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

I expect our efforts in the U.S. to keep this from being as deadly as cancer here over the course of the year.

By years end, I really hope so. It will, unfortunately, beat the daily average rate for awhile, though. Hopefully it'll get under control before the totals rack up, though!

 

[CleverNickName]

I hope you are right, but I'm not as optimistic. Social distancing is only as effective as the least-willing participant.

Two weeks ago, certain news outlets, talk radio hosts, and elected officials were doing everything they could to downplay the severity of this pandemic. They called it a hoax, they called it media hype, they called it silly; they openly mocked anyone who tried to warn or prepare. To hear them talk, Covid-19 was another country's problem, it was a ploy to steal our freedom, it was a scheme to undermine our president, it was a bunch of gullible people overreacting. It was literally anything they could think of except a crisis.

Now all of those same people are acting surprised, or changing their story, or making excuses, or hiding...they are now trying any trick they can think of to avoid admitting they were wrong. As if hearing "I told you so" was the worst thing that could ever happen to them. So people continue to mistrust their leaders--the ones they elected in the first place--and make them the enemy. Just today, people back home are tweeting about "the government can't take away our constitutional right to assemble" and posting pictures of their church services and picnics last weekend.

So keep your eyes on the Southeastern quadrant of the United States. In two weeks' time, they are the ones who are going to be "completely surprised" by this "sudden catastrophe" that "nobody could have predicted."

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

My issue with that comparison is that it's like comparing a marathon runner to a sprinter only over a short time frame. That's one way to use statistics to paint a picture that's lacking a lot of context.

I expect our efforts in the U.S. to keep this from being as deadly as cancer here over the course of the year.

Yes, I expect/hope you're right. That's why I asked for clarification.

Still, it is an enlightening number. I mean, looking back historically from the future, there will have been a full season or two during 2020 when Covid-19 was consistently the #1 killer of people on a day-to-day basis in the US and other nations. And by that little back-of-the-envelope calculation, to find it could even surpass car accidents and rise to be the #3 killer in America in cumulative terms by mid-year here in the US.

As it is, it looks like (using those outdated 2017 numbers) it could ultimately clock at year's end around #6, potentially beating out "normal" things like diabetes, flu+pneumonia, kidney disease, suicide. And that assumes current efforts go reasonably well.

No matter how it's sliced, this thing is certainly serious-- far beyond the "just a flu" that certain folks are still claiming.

 

[NotAYakk]

Our numbers aren't doubling every day. It's been 50-80 for the last week.

They've increased testing, 1 death, 1 in ICU they released 5.

So yes the numbers are going up but it's a lot slower.

They closed access to China Feb 2 iirc, closed the border 2 weeks ago, self isolation 10-11 days ago, lockdown 8 days ago.

2 cases of community transmission, 2 days later lockdown.

NZ? On the main sequence, with only a small deviation that isn't strong evidence yet.

The 'main sequence' -- the thick line on Covid Trends -- includes doubling every 2-10 days.

Last week? 500 confirmed cases. Overall? 800. That means most of your cases where found in the last week. Which is a sign of exponential growth.

It does mean you are better at buying time than other countries. But if you double every week, after 3 months (13 weeks) you are at 6,400,000 cases - 2^13 times as many cases as 800. (and yes, the extrapolation will fail before then, as herd immunity starts kicking in the R0 falls as more and more of the people you would infect are already sick, dead or immune).

To extinguish it, you need to up your game. Because doubling every week delays the flood, it doesn't stop it.

The reason why delaying is worth it is that public health measures that do extinguish it take time to set up. You need millions of test kits and people able to use them, tech to do contact tracing at scale, and you need to start extinguishing it instead of slowing it.

SK had a bigger epidemic and did it. Get on it, or you are just delaying Italy (or worse, NYC) a few months.

Note that contact tracing doesn't have to be perfect. Your goal is to get R0 under 1. It normally has an R0 of around 2.5 and a cycle time of around 4 days (doubling every 3 days). Effective isolation slows this down to an R0 of 1.4 or so, so doubling every 8 days or so.

If your contract tracing lets you head off 1/2 of people infected before they in turn infect others, R0 falls to 0.7. And 0.7 means it is exponentially shinking.

If you have 10,000 infected, they infect 7000 over 4 days, they infect 5000 over 4 days, they infect 3500 over 4 days, they infect 2500 over 4 days, they infect 1700, they infect 1200, they infect 800, they infect 600, they infect 400, they infect 300, they infect 200, they infect, 140, they infect 100...

You still get another 20000 infected, but the epidemic extinguishes itself. And if you keep up the effort, your contract tracing starts getting better; your resources, originally stretched thin, start being able to choke it off faster.

TL;DR: nobody who hasn't done industrial-scale contract tracing and mass testing has beat this thing back. Seattle, NZ, almost everywhere except SK, China, Sinagpore and Taiwan -- you are buying time, but this isn't what victory looks like.

 

[Zardnaar]

NZ? On the main sequence, with only a small deviation that isn't strong evidence yet.

The 'main sequence' -- the thick line on Covid Trends -- includes doubling every 2-10 days.

Last week? 500 confirmed cases. Overall? 800. That means most of your cases where found in the last week. Which is a sign of exponential growth.

It does mean you are better at buying time than other countries. But if you double every week, after 3 months (13 weeks) you are at 6,400,000 cases - 2^13 times as many cases as 800. (and yes, the extrapolation will fail before then, as herd immunity starts kicking in the R0 falls as more and more of the people you would infect are already sick, dead or immune).

To extinguish it, you need to up your game. Because doubling every week delays the flood, it doesn't stop it.

The reason why delaying is worth it is that public health measures that do extinguish it take time to set up. You need millions of test kits and people able to use them, tech to do contact tracing at scale, and you need to start extinguishing it instead of slowing it.

SK had a bigger epidemic and did it. Get on it, or you are just delaying Italy (or worse, NYC) a few months.

Note that contact tracing doesn't have to be perfect. Your goal is to get R0 under 1. It normally has an R0 of around 2.5 and a cycle time of around 4 days (doubling every 3 days). Effective isolation slows this down to an R0 of 1.4 or so, so doubling every 8 days or so.

If your contract tracing lets you head off 1/2 of people infected before they in turn infect others, R0 falls to 0.7. And 0.7 means it is exponentially shinking.

If you have 10,000 infected, they infect 7000 over 4 days, they infect 5000 over 4 days, they infect 3500 over 4 days, they infect 2500 over 4 days, they infect 1700, they infect 1200, they infect 800, they infect 600, they infect 400, they infect 300, they infect 200, they infect, 140, they infect 100...

You still get another 20000 infected, but the epidemic extinguishes itself. And if you keep up the effort, your contract tracing starts getting better; your resources, originally stretched thin, start being able to choke it off faster.

TL;DR: nobody who hasn't done industrial-scale contract tracing and mass testing has beat this thing back. Seattle, NZ, almost everywhere except SK, China, Sinagpore and Taiwan -- you are buying time, but this isn't what victory looks like.

I know but that's why we've been in full lockdown last week+.

We're expecting the numbers to keep climbing, we know people are gonna die.

We're not to worried about testing more the death toll. We know people have been missed.

Can't do much about it. We can try to limit the amount of people in ICU.

Governments been fairly straight up about things.

 

[FrogReaver]

What doesn't make sense to me is how it isn't being super spread at grocery stores in the U.S. Or is it? I've see way to many people packing themselves into walmarts to buy supplies.

 

[Zardnaar]

What doesn't make sense to me is how it isn't being super spread at grocery stores in the U.S. Or is it? I've see way to many people packing themselves into walmarts to buy supplies.

It's spreading that way.

We're avoiding the crowds here, most shops are shut including NZ versions of Amazon.

No take aways.

A few things can be ordered, supermarkets are open but with limited numbers allowed in and enforced social distancing in lines.


The big box stores like Walmart are closed. Online shopping closed. Takeaways closed.

 

[FrogReaver]

It's spreading that way.

We're avoiding the crowds here, most shops are shut including NZ versions of Amazon.

No take aways.

A few things can be ordered, supermarkets are open but with limited numbers allowed in and enforced social distancing in lines.


The big box stores like Walmart are closed. Online shopping closed. Takeaways closed.

You in better shape than the U.S. on that front. We have restaurants able to do curbside/delivery. Walmart opened (though it doubles as a grocery store here which is why.) Doctors offices open. Pharmacies open. Banks open. Typically drive thru only where applicable.

I joke that the list of essential businesses allowed to stay open is nearly everyone.

 

[Zardnaar]

You in better shape than the U.S. on that front. We have restaurants able to do curbside/delivery. Walmart opened (though it doubles as a grocery store here which is why.) Doctors offices open. Pharmacies open. Banks open. Typically drive thru only where applicable.

Pharmacies are open, they count as essential. Medical centers are phone in only,non essential surgeries cancelled, all restaurants gone along with bars.

They nuked the tourism sector and the airlines.

In theory tradies are only supposed to be doing essential work. There's been some violations.

Hardware stores are only open for trades not the general public.