D&D and the rising pandemic

[ad_hoc]

Former Florida Data Official Rebekah Jones on State Manipulating COVID-19 Data

Florida’s COVID-19 cases continue to surge, making it one of the new hotspots in the country. In testimony to Congress this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci said…

www.wlrn.org

ICU:

"Their change in language and reporting doesn’t affect how many beds are available. And to say someone who is in an intensive care unit and doesn’t require intensive care and could essentially be kicked out of an ICU bed, if someone needed it, that kind of situation only happens if the immediate care beds are full. There would be nowhere to kick that person out to. And it’s a really irresponsible way to look at patient level care,” said Jones on Sundial."

Sounds like they are counting ICU beds as 'empty' if they decide that the person doesn't actually need to be in the bed. Hospitals here don't work like that. If a person doesn't need an ICU bed, they don't get one. If they have one, it is because they need it.

On reporting of cases:

"So over the last week or so, several hundred to potentially over a thousand cases have actually been deleted from the DOH data. So now on the home page of my dashboard, I put a special marker for counties where from one day to the next, they actually lost cases. So I make sure that that information is known. It is, unfortunately, the only means that we have of getting confirmed positive information about residents in Florida. We have to work with that. We have to understand its limitations and its nuances. And I've worked really hard to kind of explain those on the dashboard."

Here is Jones' dashboard:

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

According to her there are 117 480 positive cases while the official number is at 109 014.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

I hope that she's not correct, but I think it's not unlikely she is telling the truth.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Local news interviewed her and the Florida DOH. In response to her accusations of data manipulation, the DOH pointed out she relied on unofficial sources for some of her data.

...and for those who remember past pandemic shenanigans, the DOH is probably referring to her use of death reports directly from the regional coroners, which the DOH stopped using in late April.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

The death rates and case rates are definitely higher than what we know, but whether officials are lying about it is not something we can really know at this point.

 

[GreyLord]

The general consensus from what I've seen is that the lady is truthful and that Florida has been hiding the truth in an effort of it's governor to downplay how serious it's become in Florida. Basically, it's hardcore republicans/conservatives on trying to hide the numbers to convince people to go outside and party and attract tourism vs. independents, liberals, and everyone else who are concerned about lives and living. It is infuriating.

I feel those who are pushing to retain and keep everything open or reopen everything are actually working against their own best interest and instead of being able to really have people trust going out (or be more like Europe and have faith it's actually decreased in cases), they've created a great deal of distrust which will enlongate the economic difficulties for many.

That's as much as I'll say on it, because it is a HIGHLY political item in my book.

In brighter news, my Edge of Empire Star Wars campaign is moving along nicely.

 

[Zardnaar]

Played session 2 of new campaign. 2 cases in South Island again via imports.

All in quarantine so far but creeping closer. No Covid locally for 2+ months.

 

[Umbran]

Hospitals here don't work like that. If a person doesn't need an ICU bed, they don't get one. If they have one, it is because they need it.

You seem to be missing how situations change with time. Imagine a hospital in a highly actve covid area...

Person legitimately needs and goes into the ICU.
Over the next seven days, the other beds in the hospital fill with non-ICU patients.
Person who started in the ICU gets somewhat better. They no longer need the ICU, but there's nowhere else to put them. The hospital is full!
What are you going to do, put them out on the sidewalk?

Yes, we are talking about situations where the hospital works at or above capacity. No, this is not normal.

 

[ad_hoc]

You seem to be missing how situations change with time. Imagine a hospital in a highly actve covid area...

Person legitimately needs and goes into the ICU.
Over the next seven days, the other beds in the hospital fill with non-ICU patients.
Person who started in the ICU gets somewhat better. They no longer need the ICU, but there's nowhere else to put them. The hospital is full!
What are you going to do, put them out on the sidewalk?

Yes, we are talking about situations where the hospital works at or above capacity. No, this is not normal.

That is not what Jones is arguing though.

Jones is not saying that patients who get better are able to come out of ICU. Jones alleges that they are designating some patients falsely as not actually needing to be in ICU (while not actually keeping track of non-ICU beds either).

I'm not making the argument.

Jones is well aware of basic things like this I'm sure. To imply otherwise is an insult to her.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Jones is not saying that patients who get better are able to come out of ICU. Jones alleges that they are designating some patients falsely as not actually needing to be in ICU (while not actually keeping track of non-ICU beds either).

I'm not making the argument.

Jones is well aware of basic things like this I'm sure.

Yep.

IOW, according to Jones, Florida is manipulating the data so that it shows the state has more available space in its ICUs than it actually does, in order to serve the narrative of the numbers trending properly to continue reopening the state. Extremely, malevolently cynical, if true.

FWIW, according to our local news, Texas is fast approaching capacity for its ICUs (at least in the major cities) as well. We have days, maybe a week or two.

 

[ad_hoc]

Trump is ending federal funding for testing.

They really don't want to have public data about this.

The unfortunate thing is that testing isn't just there for people like me who like to look at numbers. It is essential for informing about outbreaks and conducting contact tracing to stop those outbreaks from spreading.

Though some think that it may be too late for even contact tracing (that is, the amount of contact tracing that is needed is far too great than what could be provided) in some areas as community spread widens.

Trump—After ‘Slow The Testing Down’ Remark—Will End Federal Funding For Testing Sites

Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have repeatedly claimed, falsely, that testing accounts for surges of coronavirus cases.

www.forbes.com

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

Trump is ending federal funding for testing.

They really don't want to have public data about this.

The unfortunate thing is that testing isn't just there for people like me who like to look at numbers. It is essential for informing about outbreaks and conducting contact tracing to stop those outbreaks from spreading.

Though some think that it may be too late for even contact tracing (that is, the amount of contact tracing that is needed is far too great than what could be provided) in some areas as community spread widens.

Trump—After ‘Slow The Testing Down’ Remark—Will End Federal Funding For Testing Sites

Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have repeatedly claimed, falsely, that testing accounts for surges of coronavirus cases.

www.forbes.com

I hate this. I don't care how you feel about Trump. This was a stupid, selfish move. It's not political, it's purely human decency.

 

[NotAYakk]

The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.

First you break the country into cells. In each cell you maintain social distancing. And you restrict travel between.

Most importantly, you ban large and indoor gatherings.

Next, in urban areas, do wastewater testing. When there is an RNA spike ramp up restrictions.

Start testing everyone with a sniffle as well. Pay the company for 24 hour sick leave for sniffles if the employee gets a C19 test.

Add contact tracing apps. Ping everyone who was near someone positive.

Measure Re as well as you can, constantly, and work out what measures have the best bang for buck.

Eradicate it in some cells. They become green zones; lighter restrictions, but thicker restrictions coming from yellow zones.

You'll kill it off in a few months. Manual contact tracing is just the final phase when you have mostly choked it off.

Of course, any politician who needs mass ralleys to make money will object.

 

[Nagol]

The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.

First you break the country into cells. In each cell you maintain social distancing. And you restrict travel between.

Most importantly, you ban large and indoor gatherings.

Next, in urban areas, do wastewater testing. When there is an RNA spike ramp up restrictions.

Start testing everyone with a sniffle as well. Pay the company for 24 hour sick leave for sniffles if the employee gets a C19 test.

Add contact tracing apps. Ping everyone who was near someone positive.

Measure Re as well as you can, constantly, and work out what measures have the best bang for buck.

Eradicate it in some cells. They become green zones; lighter restrictions, but thicker restrictions coming from yellow zones.

You'll kill it off in a few months. Manual contact tracing is just the final phase when you have mostly choked it off.

Of course, any politician who needs mass ralleys to make money will object.

A decent skeleton of a plan for areas that are in any way self-sufficient. That's... pretty much nowhere in modern states. Trying cell isolation whilst still importing food, medicine, and other supplies will fail. Now, the failures may be sparse enough you can control the additional outbreaks.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.

It could've been defeated if only we didn't have such a thriving disinformation business here in America.

 

[NotAYakk]

A decent skeleton of a plan for areas that are in any way self-sufficient. That's... pretty much nowhere in modern states. Trying cell isolation whilst still importing food, medicine, and other supplies will fail. Now, the failures may be sparse enough you can control the additional outbreaks.

You don't need to interact face to face to transport food, or most supplirs.

Canada is right next to the USA with ridiculously interrtwined supply chains. Shutting down non-essential travel let Canada drop its infection rate independently from the USA.

Covud 19 mostly transmits from talking and breathing. Not from "being in the area".

The point of cells is to permit local success to happen, and focus interventions where the problem is worse. You'll get some transmission, so you'll want to keep Re in a clean cell under 1; introduced cases self extinguish instead of explode, but in yellow/red cells you plummit Re down to 0.5 or lower.

 

[ad_hoc]

The epidemic in the USA could ve defeated.

I just don't think that is true because of the culture.

This is a crisis where everyone needs to work together.

Hopefully some areas will be okay. Ironically, New York State may actually come out of this in relatively good shape.

 

[Umbran]

Hopefully some areas will be okay. Ironically, New York State may actually come out of this in relatively good shape.

At this point, most of the northeast could probably be okay if they cooperated on it. MA is doing fine - at this point, we'll be okay if we control major events coming from outside the state.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

At this point, I'm very pessimistic about the outcome of the pandemic in the US. There are still many, many people in my county that refuse to follow social distancing rules, mask wearing rules, and they still deny the existence of the disease and/or the severity.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

It’s worse than that: there are now forged/faked documents floating around that people are using to fraudulently claim they need to be exempted from wearing masks due to illness or medical conditions. I’ve been telling my friends & family who work in retail and food service that if they are shown such a document, they need to call the police.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

Oh, and there's that weird conspiracy theory that masks somehow activate Coronavirus. Anyone heard that one yet?