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D&D and the rising pandemic

Hussar

Legend
And, the thing is, comparatively speaking, covid isn't a terribly lethal disease. Wait, wait, stop typing, I'm not saying it's GOOD. But, it's not exactly ebola is it? The overwhelming majority of people who catch Covid, do recover. Something like what, about 97, 98%? And, most of the deaths are among older people, where covid looks like pneumonia. I mean, not to be glib, but, when an 87 year old patient dies of a lung infection, it's not like they're sending in forensic teams to determine cause of death.

What I'm saying is, that yeah, it's entirely possible this disease has been hanging out in the wings. It wasn't until it really hit, in Wuhan, China, that people finally took notice of it.
 

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ad_hoc

Hero
It looks like Americans are going to learn about exponential growth.

Florida:

Thursday: 5004
Friday: 8942
Saturday: 9585
Sunday (Today): 10 682

That is alarmingly fast.
 


Theo R Cwithin

I cast "Baconstorm!"
It’s possible that COVID-19 has been hiding among the death statistics of supposed flu victims, certain organ failure and stroke victims...not to mention all those who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms that could be passed off as a “seasonal crud”.
But even if it was "hiding" at some low level before, there's been a clear year-on-year death excess in 2020, iirc. So there must have been some significant change with respect to the virus' lethality or contagiousness or something.

Man... this epidemiology stuff is hard!
 
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Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
And, the thing is, comparatively speaking, covid isn't a terribly lethal disease. Wait, wait, stop typing, I'm not saying it's GOOD. But, it's not exactly ebola is it? The overwhelming majority of people who catch Covid, do recover. Something like what, about 97, 98%? And, most of the deaths are among older people, where covid looks like pneumonia. I mean, not to be glib, but, when an 87 year old patient dies of a lung infection, it's not like they're sending in forensic teams to determine cause of death.

What I'm saying is, that yeah, it's entirely possible this disease has been hanging out in the wings. It wasn't until it really hit, in Wuhan, China, that people finally took notice of it.
Yeah, too many “hoaxers” are focused on the lethality of Covid-19, and that doesn’t seem to be its thing. It only kios something like 1-5% of those it infects.

Problem is, it looks like it’s a crippler. It wrecks a sizable number of its victims to the point of needing months to recover...assuming the damage isn’t permanent.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
But even if it was "hiding" at some low level before, there's been a clear year-on-year death excess in 2020, iirc. So there must have been some significant change with respect to the virus' lethality or contagiousness or something.

Man... this epidemiology stuff is hard!
My GUESS is either there was some recent mutation that gave it some extra horsepower or we’d been lucky up until 2019 and it hadn’t hit a big pocket of truly vulnerable people.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
And, the thing is, comparatively speaking, covid isn't a terribly lethal disease. Wait, wait, stop typing, I'm not saying it's GOOD. But, it's not exactly ebola is it?
So, you have to be very, very careful about what you think of when you say "lethal disease".

In West Africa, over from 2014 to 2016, there were more than 28,600 cases and 11,325 deaths. If you caught it, your survival was pretty much a coin flip.

However, in the US alone, from January through June, covid-19 has killed 127,000 . In a quarter of the time, Covid-19 has killed over ten times as many people, and it is nowhere near burned out yet. By the measure of how many killed per unit time, covid-19 has been FORTY TIMES worse than that ebola outbreak.

Ebola is more lethal per case, so much so that it is self-limiting. Covid-19 will kill more people in your population more quickly, precisely because it isn't as lethal in each case.
 
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Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
I think Hussar was thinking of case lethality, as most do.

It’s counterintuitive to think of a pathogen with a survival rate of 95%+ as being “dangerous”. It isn’t in the colloquial sense, and that feeds the whole “it’s just the flu” narrative.

I forget who did the research, but one of the reasons why military units around the world are using smaller, less intrinsically lethal rounds than in the early days of firearms is that if you kill a soldier, you remove 1 enemy from the battlefield. But if you WOUND a soldier, you remove him and all of the soldiers trying to get him to safety.

Covid is like that. It wounds and maims without killing, thereby allowing it to deal more damage to society than those other diseases we instinctively fear.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Here in Texas, we’re getting more examples of how to/how not to lead in a pandemic.

I attend a Catholic Church with a congregation bigger than most so-called megachurches. We break up services over 2 days to serve them all, instead of having huge numbers praying together. And we just officially canceled choir practice and service participation until December at the very least. This was done because numerous choir practice sessions across the USA have been linked to large outbreaks. We didn’t want to add to that.

Meanwhile, VP Mike Pence visited Robert Jeffress’ First Baptist Church today. While Pence was masked- a rarity- FBC’s full 100+ member choir performed standing shoulder to shoulder and maskless.
 

CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
You can't really fault Americans for not understanding things like probability, statistics, and exponents. We have been actively dismantling our public education system for generations. :-/
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
You can't really fault Americans for not understanding things like probability, statistics, and exponents. We have been actively dismantling our public education system for generations. :-/
As Walt Kelly said via his character, Pogo, “ We have met the enemy, and he is us.”
 

Zardnaar

Legend
You can't really fault Americans for not understanding things like probability, statistics, and exponents. We have been actively dismantling our public education system for generations. :-/
It's not just America but even in other countries there's a severe lack of life skills in school.

We had a course called transition which did cover things post school employment but it was only for one hour a week.

Things like compound interest were covered in math class but who really pays attention to math class and they don't relate it back to the real world.

We've had a new schools initiative. I had to deliver equipment to the class room.

Yeah olde individual desks were gone and they had big tables instead with lots of things like bean bags. Open plan type rooms. Not sure if it's better than ye olde desk plus cane and strap enforcement.



As long as your parents aren't plonkers you can probably skip the first 5 years of school.
It's essentially playtime and babysitting and that was 30 years ago here.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Things like compound interest were covered in math class but who really pays attention to math class and they don't relate it back to the real world.
That’s one thing that needs to be taught in the context of MONEY.

One of the things that was part of my MBA program was a tour of the Dallas Cowboys training facility. Our tour guide only had 2 bosses- Jones and the head coach. Man had an MBA himself...and one of his jobs was to walk rookies (and anyone else who needed it) through the day-to-day realities of living as a PRO athlete. For many, this included tutorials in basic banking, because most of the rookieslived in cash and favors, and had never had a bank account.

As he recounted, in HIS first year in the organization, he got a call from one of the rookies to help him get some money. It seemed America’s Cash Express would not let him cash his game check, and he was broke.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
That’s one thing that needs to be taught in the context of MONEY.

One of the things that was part of my MBA program was a tour of the Dallas Cowboys training facility. Our tour guide only had 2 bosses- Jones and the head coach. Man had an MBA himself...and one of his jobs was to walk rookies (and anyone else who needed it) through the day-to-day realities of living as a PRO athlete. For many, this included tutorials in basic banking, because most of the rookieslived in cash and favors, and had never had a bank account.

As he recounted, in HIS first year in the organization, he got a call from one of the rookies to help him get some money. It seemed America’s Cash Express would not let him cash his game check, and he was broke.
Yep some if that needs to be in high school IMHO.

In middle school and early high school you got the life skills type classes but in the last 3 years you could pick the subjects.

If you were a guy you got cooking and sewing classes. The girls got woodworking and metalwork. That went out the window at highschool.

They're moving away from pass/fail type grades and more the participation type reports which makes it harder to know how good your kids doing.

The elite schools have the kids do international standard type tests.

They're doing better these days at some things but worse at the basics.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
I took a LOT of classes in public (and private) schools that are nearly extinct in parts of the USA these days- health, social studies, shop, music, art, electronics, home economics... Hell, my PE classes were more varied than some of the stuff my younger cousins went through.

Fortunately, I’ve seen signs that’s a trendbeing reversed.
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
I took a LOT of classes in public (and private) schools that are nearly extinct in parts of the USA these days- health, social studies, shop, music, art, electronics, home economics... Hell, my PE classes were more varied than some of the stuff my younger cousins went through.

Fortunately, I’ve seen signs that’s a trendbeing reversed.
Definitely never saw any of these. In my country, the most we could have would be one workshop during middle school. Stuff like typing, clothes making, baking, electrician or mechanical training. While in many places you can choose, most of the time it ends up being segregated by gender and you don't get a choice at all. The school I went to had six options, but most tended to have just two choices, typing for girls and drawing for boys and there was no way around that.

I think they have health education and introduction to laws in the highschools under the national University, but I went to one under the national Technical College so just pure sciences and some literature for me -I didn't even have to take PE-. I have no idea how different the other highschools -the many trade highschools and the independent ones- are. And well, I graduated highschool about 15 or so years ago, so things could have changed a lot.
 


Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
I understand the point, but worldwide half a million people are dead. So, really, this woulds and maims in addition to killing.

Which is why I push back on the, "this isn't lethal like Ebola," narrative.
It isn’t lethal like EBola. It’s a different kind of lethal.

Ebola is a barbarian- you see it coming- and odds are good you will- you run.

Covid-19 is a ninja- most of the time you never see it until it’s too late.

And as we’re seeing, a good number of Covid deaths are freaking preventable with simple public health care measures.

Someone on another board I frequent tried to say that- with its low death rate- Covid was a dud. I pointed out to him we’re still trying to figure out how many ways it harms people...and how badly. The respiratory disease has now revealed a half dozen potentially lethal tricks, and that’s not even accounting for the potential long-term stuff we won’t know about for a decade or more.
 
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Hussar

Legend
I understand the point, but worldwide half a million people are dead. So, really, this woulds and maims in addition to killing.

Which is why I push back on the, "this isn't lethal like Ebola," narrative.
Sorry, yeah, I know what you mean @Umbran, and I agree 100%. I phrased my post badly.
 


Mythological Figures & Maleficent Monsters

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