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D&D and the rising pandemic

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."
Well, there's a bunch of coronaviruses out there. Most of them don't cause dangerous pandemics. Ergo, the behavior of "typical" coronaviruses probably shouldn't be used as a gauge. Distribute "typical" behavior widely, and you may get people making assumptions that don't hold, and we increase the problem.
 

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ad_hoc

Hero
Epidemiologist and professor at the University of Toronto recommends the US/Canada border be closed for another 12 months.

He also believes that it is 'likely' that the disease will sweep through the US until enough people have been infected to achieve herd immunity. In other words, that it is likely too late for containment measures.

I think if some states can protect themselves from travel like Canada will be trying to do with the essential travel over the border, they might be able to contain it.

 



Zardnaar

Legend
In the news yesterday we're not going with reciprocate.

EU will let us visit but we're not letting them in.

Rarotonga wants us there, the trans Tasman bubble idea has fallen apart with cases in Australia spiking (they reopened to soon).

Freight can still go obviously, social distancing easy in that regard as long as people follow the rules. Gonna have bored boat crews though so expect something to go wrong.
 

ad_hoc

Hero
It's going to have to be closed for more than 12 months, probably. America is filled with Anti-Maskers, Anti-Vaxxers, and people who don't care about beating the virus.
Yeah, I think that was just an easy way of saying far into the future.

Right now the border agreement needs to be renewed every 30 days and the government won't comment on their intentions until each date.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
I'm going to whine a bit....

Dagnabbit! Where I am, we did it right. We kept folks home, we apparently didn't open too early. Even protests and rallies didn't cause a spike. We are getting ahead of this thing.

But now, it is all going to go down the frelling drain because of these ... idiots. All that effort that worked is going to get thrown away. Cheeses me off so darn much...
 

I'm going to whine a bit....

Dagnabbit! Where I am, we did it right. We kept folks home, we apparently didn't open too early. Even protests and rallies didn't cause a spike. We are getting ahead of this thing.

But now, it is all going to go down the frelling drain because of these ... idiots. All that effort that worked is going to get thrown away. Cheeses me off so darn much...
Hey, nothing wrong with whining when idiots start killing people.

My town/county never did the right thing. We shut down too late, too little, and didn't enforce it enough.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
They banned funerals here for a bit but you could apply for exemptions. Tangi's are also important to the Maori for cultural reasons.

But people did obey the rules. Voluntarily isolation was tried for a few days before lockdown didn't work.


Health minister just resigned today due to the cock ups. He's my local MP. Maybe the Air Marshall can do better job. Think I'll split vote for the Greens and retire him. 80 000 tests last two weeks no community spread.

50 odd people who were missed in the testing also refusing to be testing while others are refusing to be contacted.

Border controls working for now, wouldn't be surprised if they get breached.
 
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Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
I didn't disbelieve it just not familiar with that paper/source.

Usually use Washington Post/CNN or LA Times/New York something or other. For USians.
Ah, sorry! Yeah, the NY Post is more to the tabloid side of things. Not so much “DEVIL BABY BORN WITH HORNS!” as sensationalizing the normal and cherry-picking the somewhat outre.
 


NotAYakk

Legend
Back up to 20 cases.


Catching it at the border.

But....

Under extreme stress.


So far it's working. Wouldn't be surprised if something goes wrong.
So this is the kind of thing habitual masks can help with.

If it drops spread by 50%, Rf goes from 2.6 to 1.3. The virus life cycle stays ~4 days. Before it doubled every 3 days (lg(2)/lg(2.6)*4). Afterwards, 11 days (lg(2)/lg(1.3)*4).

That huge gap buys time for contact tracing.

Add in "no choirs" etc and you might even get Rf under 1 *before contact tracing kicks in.

But even if it was "hiding" at some low level before, there's been a clear year-on-year death excess in 2020, iirc. So there must have been some significant change with respect to the virus' lethality or contagiousness or something.

Man... this epidemiology stuff is hard!
It is possible that a single strain mutated.

But covid-19 as we see it was not circulating much before December. The virus spreads too fast and kills too many people, and gene change tracking has a single source prior to the huge explosion over the world.

We have floors on how lethal it is, because there are areas of the world where 1% of the population died in a period of weeks as the epidemic flooded over them.
I attend a Catholic Church with a congregation bigger than most so-called megachurches. We break up services over 2 days to serve them all, instead of having huge numbers praying together. And we just officially canceled choir practice and service participation until December at the very least. This was done because numerous choir practice sessions across the USA have been linked to large outbreaks. We didn’t want to add to that.
Your church should be online.

You JUST CANCELLED CHOIR? OMFG, no wonder your state is screwed.

Choirs are mega-spreading events, and up here they have been gone since March. We currently have single digit positive tests on about 1000 tests/day, and we aren't even talking about opening up Choirs. Church services are indoor gatherings; current rules permit 10 people in a gathering, ideally outdoors, with social distancing.

You are killing 100,000s of fellow Texans with your current behavior.

The goal around here is to eliminate Covid-19 so we can go from condition Orange to Yellow and reach stage-3 of reopening. (The city is Orange on a Green-Yellow-Orange-Red scale for health care resources, and we are on reopening stage 2. On this scale, you appear to be on the "fuck it" reopening stage, and inferno health care status)
Meanwhile, VP Mike Pence visited Robert Jeffress’ First Baptist Church today. While Pence was masked- a rarity- FBC’s full 100+ member choir performed standing shoulder to shoulder and maskless.
Yes, his plan is to kill a few million Americans. Maybe 1, maybe 2, maybe 3.

His behavior is going to do it slightly faster than yours is, but both of your behaviors are on the road to end up with millions dead.

Surrender is always an option, and your federal and state government is aiming for it. At best, they are making noises about how they give a shit, while not giving a shit, because giving a shit requires doing something.
Things like compound interest were covered in math class but who really pays attention to math class and they don't relate it back to the real world.
I want to write up the game that teaches compound interest via a "conquest" or "economic expansion" system.

Ramping up the time scale makes compound interest far more obvious, especially if you are facing AI competition that does use it.

Even in hard hit areas like Italy you've got something like a 99.7%+ chance of not dying. IDK what the latest toll is but 60 million people live in Italy. In some countries with low death rates crossing the road is more dangerous.
There are cities in Italy where over 1% of the population died during the epidemic.

Most of Italy shut down and managed to contain it, so this didn't happen everywhere.
 



Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Your church should be online.

You JUST CANCELLED CHOIR? OMFG, no wonder your state is screwed.

Choirs are mega-spreading events, and up here they have been gone since March. We currently have single digit positive tests on about 1000 tests/day, and we aren't even talking about opening up Choirs. Church services are indoor gatherings; current rules permit 10 people in a gathering, ideally outdoors, with social distancing.

You are killing 100,000s of fellow Texans with your current behavior.
Hold up!

You misunderstood (my admittedly unclear initial post) slightly: precisely because we were aware that choirs could be megaspreading events, our church choir had been cancelled- along with all in-person masses and other services- since the initial lockdown order. The cancellation notice that was just sent out marked a decision to cancel choir essentially until 2021, barring marked improvement in the pandemic situation.

As for services themselves, daily mass (at 25% capacity permitted) started when the Gov said it was allowed, and Sunday services (at 25% capacity permitted) started just this past weekend. No clue as to HOW they're implementing the capacity rules or social distancing during service because I haven’t attended either- our church initiated online mass within a week of the initiation of lockdown, and continues to offer them.

...as do countless other Catholic Churches around the world. The diocese of Dallas has recently started broadcasting a Sunday service on a local TV station. Me? I’ve been watching one out of Toronto since the 3rd week of the lockdown, having previously watched a local one (from elsewhere in the diocese) and a really nice one out of Australia.
 
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