log in or register to remove this ad

 

D&D and the rising pandemic

It's dangerous to say "It's not very deadly", because that's what maskless people have been saying for months. I can't count how many times in my senior year when Covid-19 was in the US, people at my school were yelling "IT'S JUST THE FLU!" or "THE FLU HAS KILLED MORE!" even though they ignore how recent Covid-19 was at the time.

@Hussar, I agree, Covid is less deadly than Ebola, but is much more dangerous. Covid spreads more easily, can spread asymptomatically/presymptomatically (IDK which is correct), and kills differing parts of the population that people are willing to give up as a sacrifice to the economy.
 

log in or register to remove this ad

ad_hoc

Hero
It's dangerous to say "It's not very deadly", because that's what maskless people have been saying for months. I can't count how many times in my senior year when Covid-19 was in the US, people at my school were yelling "IT'S JUST THE FLU!" or "THE FLU HAS KILLED MORE!" even though they ignore how recent Covid-19 was at the time.

@Hussar, I agree, Covid is less deadly than Ebola, but is much more dangerous. Covid spreads more easily, can spread asymptomatically/presymptomatically (IDK which is correct), and kills differing parts of the population that people are willing to give up as a sacrifice to the economy.
From what I have read it can spread through both asymptomatic and presymptomatic people but the spread from presymptomatic people is much more likely.

It doesn't really matter though as what really counts is that anyone could be spreading it without knowing it of course.
 


Zardnaar

Legend
Governments looking at making people pay for quarantine. People have been leaving on Holiday and the government spends about $5500 USD per person.

EU has added us to the list of safe countries allowed to enter.

They're using the hotels as qurantine facilities. 3 meals a day including steak, lamb all the good stuff.

However one wag pointed out that you can fly return to Australia for a day trip and get a two week holiday for free all expenses paid. If you can work from home or just want time off it's cheaper than paying rent and living expenses.

Since all Covid is currently imported some people still want to go on holiday now. Then you get a free two weeks at nice hotels.

They're only using the big chains as well that tourists used to use. They're not exactly throwing you into Bob and Kates backyard rent by the hour hotel. You're not confined to your room either.

Kinda good news economy wise.


Expected 9% unemployment, economy running at 95% pre Covid.

Very low side of the doom and gloom forecasts. Early days though but better than expected.
 
Last edited:

Janx

Hero
So, you have to be very, very careful about what you think of when you say "lethal disease".

In West Africa, over from 2014 to 2016, there were more than 28,600 cases and 11,325 deaths. If you caught it, your survival was pretty much a coin flip.

However, in the US alone, from January through June, covid-19 has killed 127,000 . In a quarter of the time, Covid-19 has killed over ten times as many people, and it is nowhere near burned out yet. By the measure of how many killed per unit time, covid-19 has been FORTY TIMES worse than that ebola outbreak.

Ebola is more lethal per case, so much so that it is self-limiting. Covid-19 will kill more people in your population more quickly, precisely because it isn't as lethal in each case.
There was this video game, pandemic or something. About making a virus and mutating it to try to wipe out all the humans on the planet.

What Umbran says here is exactly spot on with the winning strategy. A virus that is too lethal, too early burns itself out before it can spread. You want something with a long incubation, so the carriers can spread it. Then (in the game) mutate to a more lethal version and wipe everybody out.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Covids not really deadly enough so it's easy to be "eh whatever" about it.

Not saying it's right or wrong it just is.

Even in hard hit areas like Italy you've got something like a 99.7%+ chance of not dying. IDK what the latest toll is but 60 million people live in Italy. In some countries with low death rates crossing the road is more dangerous.

Something like WW2 killed around 3.5% of the world's population, in some countries almost 1 in 3. Bit more if an impact.

It's never scared me as such in terms of getting sick and I'm in high risk group due to asthma and inhalers lower your immune system. I am more worried about the state of the world. Indirectly Covid will kill more than getting sick.

It's not the black death. Downsides of a history degree you can always find worst examples.

You can't lock down for more than a few months. People either get complacent if it goes well or "screw this whatever" if it doesn't.

What people should do and what people will do are two different things.
 

I have been playing online almost exclusively now for several years. For me it is simply more convenient for scheduling, but also helpful because of health issues I have. I will say, the first month or so of online play, it didn't feel like real gaming with people there. But that feeling did go away with time. The only way it can become an issue again is if people allow themselves to become distracted with the internet or something while they play (but I have also seen people distracted with their iPhones during play at a live table so it is a problem in both cases, just easier for people to slip into in an online game because people don't see them checking their emails as easily). I would definitely encourage it. It does have its draw backs. I find if you require a table top map to play, and have to use online tools to replicate that, it will slow things down. I prefer theater of the mind, and for theater of the mind, you can run it just like a regular session. One big advantage is you are not limited by your geography. You can find a group for pretty much any game, in any style of play that suits you. You can also try out styles you might not have an opportunity to see locally.
 

There was this video game, pandemic or something. About making a virus and mutating it to try to wipe out all the humans on the planet.
Plague Inc.
I've played it. It was fun. It will forever be broken for me.
What Umbran says here is exactly spot on with the winning strategy. A virus that is too lethal, too early burns itself out before it can spread. You want something with a long incubation, so the carriers can spread it. Then (in the game) mutate to a more lethal version and wipe everybody out.
And people predicted this virus, too. Bill Gates, and other scientists:
 


Black Death was a bacteria, and would be fairly easy for us to treat in modern days with our anti-biotics and hygiene.
I did podcast on this, may be of interest: THE BLACK DEATH (AND OTHER PLAGUE OUTBREAKS)

I think comparing things like this is difficult. In terms of impact, the black death was definitely worse. Obviously though we are much better at managing bacteria today (perhaps in 1,000 years we will be just as good at managing viruses). But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain. Being a virus it is going to be different from the black death. I think best to err on the side of taking a new pandemic like covid seriously. I've known two people who died from it so far. I don't pretend to know the best policy in terms of what we should be doing as a society, however.
 

I did podcast on this, may be of interest: THE BLACK DEATH (AND OTHER PLAGUE OUTBREAKS)

I think comparing things like this is difficult. In terms of impact, the black death was definitely worse. Obviously though we are much better at managing bacteria today (perhaps in 1,000 years we will be just as good at managing viruses). But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain. Being a virus it is going to be different from the black death. I think best to err on the side of taking a new pandemic like covid seriously. I've known two people who died from it so far. I don't pretend to know the best policy in terms of what we should be doing as a society, however.
That's my point. They're not really comparable. People say that it's not super deadly, and therefore we shouldn't care that much about it. These aren't similar things. Sure, they're deadly diseases that were given to us by other animals, but the similarities end there. Just because it's not as deadly as Black Death or Ebola doesn't mean that we shouldn't care about it.

I don't know anyone who has died so far, which is incredibly lucky of me, as my county now has more than 7,000 confirmed cases. I'm sorry that you know people who have died from this.
 


Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
I think you are underestimating the possible impact of this virus when all is said and done.
70-85 million people died in WWII. It was 3 to 3.5% of the world population, but the population was much smaller.

Those millions died over the course of 7 years. If we play conservative, that's ten million a year. So far, covid-19 has killed half a million in roughly half a year. So, if you think it is going to be like WWII... well, it would need to be ten times worse than what we have seen to date.
 

Istbor

Dances with Gnolls
70-85 million people died in WWII. It was 3 to 3.5% of the world population, but the population was much smaller.

Those millions died over the course of 7 years. If we play conservative, that's ten million a year. So far, covid-19 has killed half a million in roughly half a year. So, if you think it is going to be like WWII... well, it would need to be ten times worse than what we have seen to date.
I am not trying to account for an annual rack-up of WWII. Only that the potential is there to see a similar total when all is said and done. Maybe that takes 7 years, maybe it takes more. I certainly hope we can provide an effective way to fight it.

However constantly calling back to past events and saying "It's meh", is not a productive way to address a current crisis, in my opinion.
 

Eltab

Hero
But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain.
One of the things that makes me want to climb the walls is that nobody has collected the already-existing research on small-c coronaviruses and done a TV Special (or similar) on what we DO know about how they behave, spread, the typical course of an infection, what kills the viruses after they get in you, what conditions / environments they do or do not like while awaiting another victim, how quickly / slowly they perish in common circumstances (like "on plastic at room temperature"), medicines and treatment regimens that have been tried, measures to make your body more resistant beforehand and be a tough target, how to boost your immune system if you think you've got it, and so on.

It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."
 

One of the things that makes me want to climb the walls is that nobody has collected the already-existing research on small-c coronaviruses and done a TV Special (or similar) on what we DO know about how they behave, spread, the typical course of an infection, what kills the viruses after they get in you, what conditions / environments they do or do not like while awaiting another victim, how quickly / slowly they perish in common circumstances (like "on plastic at room temperature"), medicines and treatment regimens that have been tried, measures to make your body more resistant beforehand and be a tough target, how to boost your immune system if you think you've got it, and so on.

It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."
This is a topic where I've just been deferring to my doctor for reliable advice. My approach is to do what the doc says and to stay in shape, keep my lungs strong in case I do get sick, and make sure I am getting all the nutrients, sunlight, etc that I need (but not going overboard).
 

Zardnaar

Legend
I am not trying to account for an annual rack-up of WWII. Only that the potential is there to see a similar total when all is said and done. Maybe that takes 7 years, maybe it takes more. I certainly hope we can provide an effective way to fight it.

However constantly calling back to past events and saying "It's meh", is not a productive way to address a current crisis, in my opinion.
It's not so much that but humans have an ability to keep going even when there's risk.

Social distancing seems to be collapsing around the world even in countries that did well.

Basically you can't live in a state if constant fear without the threat being immediate and with terrible consequences.

That doesn't really happen that much and the odds of dying need to be higher than 0.01%.

1% of the American population is 3.2 million. 0.1% is 320 000. Current death toll is 120k iirc probably higher by now.

Some people are idiots, others are just got to get on with it.

Humans live on active volcanoes.

Ideally everyone gets 60000 calories and bunkers down for a month. Not really viable in most places.
 

tomBitonti

Explorer
There was this video game, pandemic or something. About making a virus and mutating it to try to wipe out all the humans on the planet.

What Umbran says here is exactly spot on with the winning strategy. A virus that is too lethal, too early burns itself out before it can spread. You want something with a long incubation, so the carriers can spread it. Then (in the game) mutate to a more lethal version and wipe everybody out.
Plague, Inc, (Ndemic Creations) on IOS, is probably what you are thinking of: You craft a pathogen and mutate it as the game progress to adjust factors such as hardiness, symptoms (which affect transmission rates), and resistances.

There is also Pandemic the board game (published by Z-Man Games) but that is a cooperative game where you travel across the globe to suppress, cure, and eradicate several spreading diseases.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti
 



Mythological Figures & Maleficent Monsters

Advertisement2

Advertisement4

Top