D&D and the rising pandemic

[Dannyalcatraz]

I know SoS has bowed out, but:

1) Texas is already limiting inbound travel from Louisiana and other states...of private citizens. Commercial travel is not interdicted. As a major commercial hub, if things go wrong here, those involved will become a serious vector.

2) the same issue applies to the military personnel. In addition, a large outbreak here could substantially impact the country’s overall military readiness.

 

[Zardnaar]

Business as usual realistically is probably October.

Assuming Covid burns out.

I can't see our lockdown ending in two weeks. They went into lockdown after they found 2 cases of community spread.

They might lower the alert level to 3 or allow semi essential businesses to open.

Businesses as normal will be 2 weeks after cases per day are 0 and no unidentified cases are hitting ICU. They might to to alert level 2 at that point.

Realistically we're coming up to the end of week 3, 3-5 weeks left to go but I would suspect 3 months so sometime in June.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Talking about Texas, if Houston does not get hit hard, the way New Orleans is going and NYC already has, I would be shocked. A good chunk of the population there has the same poor health situations, which is one reason why this virus is being more fatal for minorities getting it.

Along those lines, I think the reverse of that is why Iceland's numbers are showing as much as 50% of those infected being asymptomatic versus the smaller 25% a lot of doctors are claiming in general, that being a general lack of minority population there, plus lack of poor health conditions.

 

[Zardnaar]

Talking about Texas, if Houston does not get hit hard, the way New Orleans is going and NYC already has, I would be shocked. A good chunk of the population there has the same poor health situations, which is one reason why this virus is being more fatal for minorities getting it.

Along those lines, I think the reverse of that is why Iceland's numbers are showing as much as 50% of those infected being asymptomatic versus the smaller 25% a lot of doctors are claiming in general, that being a general lack of minority population there, plus lack of poor health conditions.

Friends in Houston. They experienced that last hurricane. They're sane but even they have 3 guns and dogs due to looters. They went into self isolation a few days before I did. We're singing in the streets, they fortified the house.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

@Zardnaar If this virus does end up being worse in the colder months and milder in the warmer months, isn't New Zealand going to be getting worse, rather than better, seeing as how you are a couple months away from Winter starting? Or does NZ not get the kind of winters the US and EU get?

 

[Zardnaar]

@Zardnaar If this virus does end up being worse in the colder months and milder in the warmer months, isn't New Zealand going to be getting worse, rather than better, seeing as how you are a couple months away from Winter starting? Or does NZ not get the kind of winters the US and EU get?

Milder generally. I'm in the deep South and it's warmer than say the UK. 1-3 days if snow per year. I'm on the coast though, interior and Alpine areas can get cold.

I regard that theory as full of crap. Moscow is cold atm getting wrecked, Spain, Italy, Iran are warm.

On mitigating factor might be the ozone layer over Australia/NZ. We get more UV light.

Heat seems to have no real effect. Anyone pushing that lines an idiot.

I'm looking at deaths per million, testing criteria varies and obviously it's going to miss people.

Big transport hubs and tourism areas seem hardest hit.

If I had to guess New Orleans and Florida are batter up next. I told my friend 22 days ago USA was gonna be 9/11 levels every day for a month. It's not that far off.

My personal best guess was Vietnam War level of casualties in a month or so vs 10 years. Almost halfway there.

If it gets into Florida's aged community expect Italy and UK levels of badness.

I'm leaning towards when not if.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Heat seems to have no real effect. Anyone pushing that lines an idiot.

Yeah, the only way I have heard high heat maybe having an effect on the virus is if it is combination with high humidity. So a state like Florida could be better off than a state like Arizona. Wet heat versus dry heat.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Yeah, the only way I have heard high heat maybe having an effect on the virus is if it is combination with high humidity. So a state like Florida could be better off than a state like Arizona. Wet heat versus dry heat.

It could also be one of those things you see in lab conditions, but not in the uncontrolled real world. The reasons the virus falters in a hot & humid lab experiment might be mitigated or negated by other environmental factors.

Which is why the MDs keep saying “wait and see.”

 

[Zardnaar]

Yeah, the only way I have heard high heat maybe having an effect on the virus is if it is combination with high humidity. So a state like Florida could be better off than a state like Arizona. Wet heat versus dry heat.

I wouldn't put money on it.

Summer will slow the rate for the simple reason it's already killed the most vulnerable and enough of the population will be in hiding regardless of what the governors say.

Italys been in lockdown about a month it's starting to slow now. US has around two weeks left minimum in the hardest hit areas and it will ramp up in those states generally in the old Confederacy.

Chicago doesn't seem to be having much fun either.

 

[Zardnaar]

Friend shared this with me.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems

ourworldindata.org

USA is behind the curve atm.