D&D and the rising pandemic


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I absolutely care about people's lives. And since this obviously isn't working, we should be looking for a different solution than wearing the damned mask.
See, the reason it isn't working is because of people like you who ignore the rules, for whatever reason, and then pretend that it's the mask mandate that's failing. I wonder how many people you potentially murdered when you had Covid-19 and were asymptomatic before your symptoms presented. How does it feel knowing that you murdered potentially dozens of people? I'm honestly curious.

I live in a country where we have tops, 2500 cases a day. That's it. The entire country of 125 MILLION, is pretty much Covid free because people actually listened to the doctors, stayed home, wore their masks and, oh look, life is largely back to normal, and we've had less total dead than you have in a day.

It's utterly mind boggling that people would blame the masks and the mandates and not themselves.

I understand this is a topic that lends itself to volatility and emotional reactions, but lets try to keep it from being personal.
 
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Researchers have found that a particular kind of blood test already used to test efficacy of other vaccines may also be used to test the efficacy of C19 vaccines. This could mean a cheaper, faster way to test the other C19 vaccines in development, giving us a broader and deeper arsenal in fighting this pandemic.

 
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In this case, we can add...

"I drive while drunk. Nobody tells me not to."


Overall, the US has had 14.6 million cases, and 281,000 deaths (the reported number went up since my previous post earlier tonight!).

That's an overall mortality rate more like 2%. Yes, that's including the period earlier this year when hospitals were getting swamped. But, guess what? They're getting swamped again. Advances in treatment will fail when cases overwhelm the healthcare system.
About 1% of actually infected. 2% of diagnosed would mean you missed about half of those infected, it doesn't disprove it.

But you actually miss more than 75% of those infected. About half of the US infections have been in the last 2 months, and most of those in the last few weeks. The dead just aren't dead yet.

The 1% value is useful when you ask "why don't we just let everyone get sick".

Now this varies with demographics of the region. USA is going to have a lower deathnrate than Italy; it has a younger population.

Reports I've seen recently for the US give the virus a reproductive number around 4 when folks ignore safety precautions like masks and social distancing.

If someone gets it, they will probably survive. But if we treat them like a statistically average case they'll give it to four people. If they're likewise ignoring safety, each of them will give it to 4 more (adding 16, bringing the total to 20). Those 16 will each infect four more (adding 64, to a total of 84). One of those people dies. The 64 each infect 4 (adding 256, bringing the total to 340 infected.) At this point, with that 2% mortality rate, six people are probably dead.
Except most people infected get infected late in the outbreak, with fewer people left to be infected, and if they managed to avoid infection the outbreak would probably infect the people they would have infected a few minutes, hours or days later.

Early prevention in an outbreak cut short by vaccination change the math hugely. Then shaving infections off the chain saves many lives.

Similarly, one plague spreader in an area of responsible people has their effects blunted by the work of other people.

Max marginal deaths (per plague spreader) then happens in a population that is half assing plague spreading, as each spreader accellerates the plague just enough to harvest the most dead people before vaccination.
 
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I am not anti-mask, I simply do not wear one. The experts that I have consulted, including a doctor, say there is no need anyway. For this virus, though other viruses might come up where it would be both necessary and effective.
What matters is where you get your information. And most people here are not looking in good places.
Do not use this site to spread false and dangerous health information. If you do so again, you will be asked to leave.
 

Our cases for today.

0.

RNZ the source is kinda like the BBC.

Some people miss lockdown. Whole country was more or less on same page, more time with family.
Yup when people actually follow appropriate rules and that includes speed limits, stop signs, not being intoxicated while driving we get fewer deaths, seems like a pattern
 

Researchers have found that a particular kind of blood test already used to test efficacy of other vaccines may also be used to test the efficacy of C19 vaccines. This could mean a cheaper, faster way to test the other C19 vaccines in development, giving us a broader and deeper arsenal in fighting this pandemic.

Which eould mean testing safety is sufficient, speeding up other vaccines. (safety is still lots of work, but effectiveness requires finding areas with an active outbreak and waiting for a statistical difference between the two groups. Hard, and harder when you need to compare it to "best practices" without harming your test subjects...)
 



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