D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

Side effect of last year's Covid lockdowns. It also eliminated all the other seasonal viruses that do the rounds.

So this year getting hit that much harder.

New Zealand children falling ill in high numbers due to Covid ‘immunity debt’

Doctors say children haven’t been exposed to range of bugs due to lockdowns, distancing and sanitiser and their immune systems are suffering

www.theguardian.com

 

[Umbran]

With very significant numbers of vaccinated people coming down with the Delta variant...

Let us be clear about something - you say 90K cases. 21K were partially vaxxed, and 7K were fully vaxxed.

That comes to a vaccine that was about 75% protective when partial, and 93% effective when fully vaccinated. Back of the envelope, that's right about where we'd expect.

 

[Cadence]

Let us be clear about something - you say 90K cases. 21K were partially vaxxed, and 7K were fully vaxxed.

That comes to a vaccine that was about 75% protective when partial, and 93% effective when fully vaccinated. Back of the envelope, that's right about where we'd expect.

That's about what I'd expect for the non-variants, so that seems good news.

 

[DollarD]

Let us be clear about something - you say 90K cases. 21K were partially vaxxed, and 7K were fully vaxxed.

That comes to a vaccine that was about 75% protective when partial, and 93% effective when fully vaccinated. Back of the envelope, that's right about where we'd expect.

That works out to 62K unvaccinated people infected. If you then compare to the vaccinated numbers, you get 66% protective when partially vaccinated, and 88% when fully vaccinated.

Still good numbers for the vaccines. I'm still 4 weeks out to my second dose, and the Delta variant is running wild in our communities here. The healthcare system here is overwhelmed now, and we're seeing almost a doubling of our natural mortality rate in Namibia.

 

[Umbran]

That works out to 62K unvaccinated people infected.

Eh, you would want to check the actual data, rather than remembered numbers to do that, as some will report in a way that can double-count the fully-vaccinated.

 

[Mirtek]

A super bug could arise anywhere at any time. Even if we reach heard immunity and beyond, it could still arise in any of those few who could not get vaccinated or whose vaccination failed at the critical moment.

That's no ground to keep the current restrictions forever.

At one point C19 will be just one more common illnesses that kills a couple 100 to low thousand people each year. Mostly unvaccinated but also quite a few vaccinated as well.

People want to visit sport events, concerts, clubs, carnivals, etc. And not at only 25% capacity while having to stay 1.5m apart and wearing masks.

The % of supporters is falling steadily in Germany. If the government had allowed the arenas to be filled to full capacity for the european championship, it would have sold out no problem.

Pressure is rising and politicans are giving in all iver the country.

Even brothels are already allowed to re-open since July (yeah, I am sure the contact tracing there will go really well), and that's really a move I find too much too soon. Although to be fair it was also seen as legally difficult to deny their reopening unless a lot other stuff would have to keep closed too (fair treatment and stuff)

 

[Ryujin]

Eh, you would want to check the actual data, rather than remembered numbers to do that, as some will report in a way that can double-count the fully-vaccinated.

I had to explain that to someone recently. Something like 75% with first vaccination and 42% with both, thinking that meant everyone was pretty much vaccinated already. "You realize that totals over 100% if taken that way, right?"

 

[Thomas Shey]

A super bug could arise anywhere at any time. Even if we reach heard immunity and beyond, it could still arise in any of those few who could not get vaccinated or whose vaccination failed at the critical moment.

That's no ground to keep the current restrictions forever.

You can get hit by a car when interacting with the street anytime, but that doesn't make no difference between using a crosswalk and looking both ways and walking across the middle with your eyes close. The fact a lot of people have lost the thread on this doesn't make ignoring the consequences of the unvaccinated any less stupid.

 

[Umbran]

A super bug could arise anywhere at any time. Even if we reach heard immunity and beyond, it could still arise in any of those few who could not get vaccinated or whose vaccination failed at the critical moment.

That's no ground to keep the current restrictions forever.

We were speaking of England a moment ago, so... your attitude above is ignoring a very basic matter - rising case numbers.
In May, England was down to under 2000 new cases a day. Now, they are back up to 25,000 new cases a day. A tenfold increase in cases in eight weeks IS a reason to have restrictions in place.

At one point C19 will be just one more common illnesses that kills a couple 100 to low thousand people each year. Mostly unvaccinated but also quite a few vaccinated as well.

"Eventually, all will be well, so chuck it all to the wind, and let folks die now," doesn't seem a solid position.

People want to visit sport events, concerts, clubs, carnivals, etc. And not at only 25% capacity while having to stay 1.5m apart and wearing masks.

People are really, really bad at understanding risk. People cannot visit sporting events, concerts, and clubs if they are dead.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

So I can make a general report.

Having been fully vaccinated for a while (I received both the Pfizers in April), I was out and about recently, hence my three-week sabbatical.

A few thoughts-

1. It must be so obnoxious to people in other countries, knowing that in the US we have all of this vaccine that people won't take, while they don't have any. I can't even.

2. I attended a concert. It ... was ... awesome. But here's the thing- it was 5,000 people, Enclosed space. No social distancing. A lot of drinking. No masks. And a LOT OF SINGING AT FULL VOLUME. I know what the vaccination rates. I know ... I KNOW ... that there were people, probably a lot of people, in that crowd that weren't vaccinated.

I can't imagine that this is going to continue going well. I hope I'm wrong.