Thomas Shey
Legend
Some material I've seen says that's fairly characteristic of Omicron once it starts to roll back. Because its so infectious, it tends to roll though exposed populace fast, and then starts to die off.
D&D and the rising pandemic
- Thread starter GreyLord
- Start date
Some material I've seen says that's fairly characteristic of Omicron once it starts to roll back. Because its so infectious, it tends to roll though exposed populace fast, and then starts to die off.
Sure, but that's based on, like, two other populations, so it wasn't something we could really count on. The drop off could have been due to something about that place, that didn't generalize.
Note that the death peak lags the infection peak. The faster Omicron infection peak means they overlap less.
Infections peaked on Dec 17:
South Africa: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile
South Africa: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?
ourworldindata.org
Deaths peaked on Dec 26:
Baseline deaths are 10k/week. Delta peaks at 11k/week deaths excess; omicron at 3k/week deaths excess.
The 3k/week is from a population already almost entirely infected by Delta and/or vaccinated. But the width of the spike is also shorter; I'd eyeball the total excess deaths in the Omicron spike at very roughly 10x smaller than their last Delta-driven wave.
Omicron is "less serious", but 10x less than Delta in a previously immune population isn't night and day.
I'm a bit concerned our anti-Covid measures here are just slowing the spike instead of stopping it.
There is the start of some evidence that the spike is going down in the wastewater and test positivity numbers, but it also lined up with some extreme weather and a testing shortage.
I just sent my double-vaxxed and N95 wearing elementary age kid back to in person school. So it worries me.
Baron Opal II
Hero
That's still a good thing, however.
There are, roughly, four levels of hospital care:
Observation- You had a simple procedure or something's a little wonky and we want to keep an eye on you for up to 23 hours.
Medical / Surgical- You're sick enough to need hospital care (general pneumonia) or had a non-Thoracic surgery (hip replacement, gallbladder removal, &c.)
Step-Down- You're pretty sick where you need more attention and more intense therapies, but we're not worried you're about to die. Non-major traumas from MVA or GSW are often here, as are those who have recovered enough that they no longer need Critical Care.
Critical Care- ICU and equivalent care. You need mechanical assistance to survive (ventilators, ECMO, CVVH, &c.), have major trauma, thoracic surgeries, virulent disease, &c. We need to keep a close eye on you if you're here.
Right now, at the hospital where I work, people who should be in Critical Care are getting housed in Step Down or Med/Surg beds just because we don't have room for them anywhere else. There's a big learning curve going on for nurses and staff who haven't needed to take care of people this sick. Fortunately for me, I've worked at all levels of care, so I can help mentor the staff where I am. But slowing down the inflow of patients at any time gives us more time to send healthy people home or to non-hospital care. It does make things last longer, however. We're about 30% over capacity currently.
Since Omicron is less severe, they need less intense care, so this may be what we need to get sufficient herd immunity to last for the summer, take a breath, and start spreading new therapies to prevent another surge in the fall.
Oh yes, I get the advantage. It is a good thing.
But, it also means the dc19/dt is actually positive, so the risk levels are personally higher that the current indicators imply than if dc19/dt was negative.
I am hoping mass vaccination and prior waves have given us a microscopic omicron wave.
It seems unlikely.
But, it also means the dc19/dt is actually positive, so the risk levels are personally higher that the current indicators imply than if dc19/dt was negative.
I am hoping mass vaccination and prior waves have given us a microscopic omicron wave.
It seems unlikely.
Thomas Shey
Legend
Note that the death peak lags the infection peak. The faster Omicron infection peak means they overlap less.
Infections peaked on Dec 17:
South Africa: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile
South Africa: What has been the impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)?
Deaths peaked on Dec 26:
Baseline deaths are 10k/week. Delta peaks at 11k/week deaths excess; omicron at 3k/week deaths excess.
The 3k/week is from a population already almost entirely infected by Delta and/or vaccinated. But the width of the spike is also shorter; I'd eyeball the total excess deaths in the Omicron spike at very roughly 10x smaller than their last Delta-driven wave.
Omicron is "less serious", but 10x less than Delta in a previously immune population isn't night and day.
Well, the population wasn't immune, just resistant; and the issue with Omicron is that it is significantly less lethal on an infection-by-infection basis--but since its more infectious, the overall number of deaths doesn't necessarily go down all that much (and in parts of the U.S. where vaccination is low, may well have gone up because of that).
If I may ask, where are you? Your profile says Ontario. It certainly hasn't been microscopic in Ontario.
The testing stats are not reliable in Ontario right now, because they where restricted to only be for healthcare workers and particularly vulnerable people. Also, Ontario aggregate data mostly measures Toronto, which isn't where I live, because Toronto has a lot of people in it. Ontario is big; driving over the southern "populated" part of it is an almost 24 hour drive (the North contains areas you simply cannot drive to, and the "southern populated" road crosses some very low population density parts, like 0.1 people per km^2)
My "tiny" belief is based off looking at city based wastewater data, and comparing it to Boston's data:
Wastewater Covid-19 Tracking | MWRA
www.mwra.com
In Boston, the omicron wave was ridiculously huge compared to previous waves. The same kind of data for my city doesn't show this, the wastewater data barely exceeded the last wave, while Boston's data got about 5x higher than delta waves. And it wasn't because the previous Boston waves where small; they where larger (deaths, infections, etc) than the local waves where per capita.
My fear is that we are at 1/5th of my city's peak, not past it. My hope is it peaked days ago.
I'm aware - I went to school in upstate NY, about 30 miles from the Canadian border.
My "tiny" belief is based off looking at city based wastewater data, and comparing it to Boston's data:
Wastewater Covid-19 Tracking | MWRA
So, I have to turn your warning about aggregate data back at you. While Ottowa may be comparable in population to Boston Proper, the wastewater plants don't just serve Boston proper - they serve the Greater Boston Area, which has population about five times larger than Ottowa. The Deer Island Treatment Plant data you have there is for the second largest sewage treatment plant in the USA!
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