D&D and the rising pandemic

[NotAYakk]

I'm aware - I went to school in upstate NY, about 30 miles from the Canadian border.



So, I have to turn your warning about aggregate data back at you. While Ottowa may be comparable in population to Boston Proper, the wastewater plants don't just serve Boston proper - they serve the Greater Boston Area, which has population about five times larger than Ottowa. The Deer Island Treatment Plant data you have there is for the second largest sewage treatment plant in the USA!

Sure, but I'm comparing the sizes of the spikes.

Boston plant had spikes at previous waves. Those waves where as large, or larger, than Ottawa's. The Omicron Boston wave was 5x or more larger than previous waves in the wastewater.

Ottawa's Omicron wave ... is the size of the previous wave. No bigger as yet. Ottawa previous waves where smaller (per capita) than Boston's in every measure I can find.

So either (a) Ottawa magically avoided a large Omicron wave unlike every other spot in the world I've looked at, or (b) Ottawa's Omicron wave isn't on its way down yet.

 

[Umbran]

So either (a) Ottawa magically avoided a large Omicron wave unlike every other spot in the world I've looked at, or (b) Ottawa's Omicron wave isn't on its way down yet.

Or, (c) the wastewater signal isn't quite as direct or reliable an indicator as you might like.

Spoiler: Data analysis discussion that might bore some folks

Let us look at this graph:

The orange peak in the middle of the graph is April 8. The green peak in the middle is about April 17th, with about 313 cases per day at that time. We might take from this that there's a delay of a bit more than a week between wastewater signal and cases.

But... what about that trough just before the peak? That's a sharp, drop off from a high on March 10, to a super-low on March 22, before you see that huge spike on April 8th. But, look at the case rate - if the wastewater is a clear indicator, we should see a massive drop in new cases at the end of March, and that's nowhere to be seen. Cases are continuing to rise over that period. Indeed, there's even a tiny bump up in cases about a week after that trough.

A critical data analysis eye then reads that entire March-April trough and spike in the wastewater signal as hinkey (yes, that's a technical term). It is almost like there was a something that preferentially held virus laden water in a reservoir for a while, and then released it later. There are issues in data analysis or detectors that can also give rise to such. I can't tell what's happening, but since the cases do not mirror that drop and spike, we should question the validity and/or meaning of it.

So, for example, we could imagine that it wasn't a real thing, and did not happen, and that wastewater signal should have been more or less constant from about March 10th to April 20th - around 0.00075 normalized viral copies.

Now, we look at more recent time. Your ability to measure cases fell off a cliff in the beginning of the year, the cases are consistent with the wastewater signal until then.

So, if we "correct" that April spike, in April we have a wastewater signal of 0.00075, and a peak of 313 cases per day. Then, in late December we have a wastewater signal of about 0.0015, and cases up around 800. Twice the wastewater signal, twice the cases. Seems legit.

So, overall, I question that April spike more than I question whether you guys have actually had a recent surge in cases.

 

[Umbran]

Ottawa's Omicron wave ... is the size of the previous wave. No bigger as yet.

So, as noted above, that's not true - at the end of December, before your ability to measure cases failed, you were running two and a half times as many cases as you were in the previous wave.

Ottawa previous waves where smaller (per capita) than Boston's in every measure I can find.

Yep. But, your vaccination rate seems to be about 10% higher than ours. Note that disease behavior does not necessarily scale linearly with population - the larger the urban population the worse it is apt to do, per capita.

 

[NotAYakk]

Or, (c) the wastewater signal isn't quite as direct or reliable an indicator as you might like.

Spoiler: Data analysis discussion that might bore some folks

Let us look at this graph:

View attachment 150698
The orange peak in the middle of the graph is April 8. The green peak in the middle is about April 17th, with about 313 cases per day at that time. We might take from this that there's a delay of a bit more than a week between wastewater signal and cases.

But... what about that trough just before the peak? That's a sharp, drop off from a high on March 10, to a super-low on March 22, before you see that huge spike on April 8th. But, look at the case rate - if the wastewater is a clear indicator, we should see a massive drop in new cases at the end of March, and that's nowhere to be seen. Cases are continuing to rise over that period. Indeed, there's even a tiny bump up in cases about a week after that trough.

A critical data analysis eye then reads that entire March-April trough and spike in the wastewater signal as hinkey (yes, that's a technical term). It is almost like there was a something that preferentially held virus laden water in a reservoir for a while, and then released it later. There are issues in data analysis or detectors that can also give rise to such. I can't tell what's happening, but since the cases do not mirror that drop and spike, we should question the validity and/or meaning of it.

So, for example, we could imagine that it wasn't a real thing, and did not happen, and that wastewater signal should have been more or less constant from about March 10th to April 20th - around 0.00075 normalized viral copies.

Now, we look at more recent time. Your ability to measure cases fell off a cliff in the beginning of the year, the cases are consistent with the wastewater signal until then.

So, if we "correct" that April spike, in April we have a wastewater signal of 0.00075, and a peak of 313 cases per day. Then, in late December we have a wastewater signal of about 0.0015, and cases up around 800. Twice the wastewater signal, twice the cases. Seems legit.

So, overall, I question that April spike more than I question whether you guys have actually had a recent surge in cases.

So that trough was a huge melt that caused a signal error, as stormwater and sewage mixed.

There was a bunch of stuff on it at the time (points where coloured etc).

Testing failed before the new year. By mid dec, they rationed testing. I believe the problem was we had multiplied testing capacity by doing batch testing (test batches; if any positive, test indivudual. Low positivity means far fewer individual tests need be done.) which isn't efficient as positivity climbs, so capacity of testing plummitted as need grew.

 

[Umbran]

So that trough was a huge melt that caused a signal error, as stormwater and sewage mixed.

There was a bunch of stuff on it at the time (points where coloured etc).

Yeah, that backs me up - the wastewater signals from that period of March and April shouldn't be used for comparison to now.

Testing failed before the new year. By mid dec, they rationed testing.

So, then, the stats I looked at for the end of December are probably LOW. So, we should take it that you were running OVER 2.5 times the cases you were in April.

Absolutely nothing here is saying that somehow the surge is waiting in your future.

 

[Hussar]

Let's not look a gift horse in the mouth though. Seeing that spike drop like that is a good thing. Isn't it?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Omicron BA 2- a new variant- has been detected in several countries, including the USA. At this point, data suggests it isn’t any more dangerous than the original Omicron variant, but amazingly, may be even more transmissible. Considering that Omicron’s R0 was already second only to measles, that’s startling.

Omicron BA.2 Variant May Be Extra Transmissible

'Only having a transmissibility advantage at this stage of the game isn't a total showstopper'

www.medpagetoday.com

 

[NotAYakk]

Omicron BA 2- a new variant- has been detected in several countries, including the USA. At this point, data suggests it isn’t any more dangerous than the original Omicron variant, but amazingly, may be even more transmissible. Considering that Omicron’s R0 was already second only to measles, that’s startling.

Omicron BA.2 Variant May Be Extra Transmissible

'Only having a transmissibility advantage at this stage of the game isn't a total showstopper'

www.medpagetoday.com

The founder effect can be real.

You only notice variants that show up in decent numbers. Given a pile of variants which spread equally except by chance, some will show up by chance more than others, and those are the ones you'll notice, even though they are no better at spreading than their competition.

 

[Mirtek]

UK and Denmark are going to drop all meassures despite still having high infection rates.

UK seemingly missing the opportunity to call it "Freedom Day 2.0", a shame

 

[FitzTheRuke]

Honestly this is the first time it "feels" like a pandemic to me - aside from reading the daily stats online, for the longest time, I didn't personally know anyone who had covid (at least not for sure, I was terribly sick in the early days, but I couldn't get tested). (Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying I didn't take it seriously before - far from it - I just didn't experience it personally).

But NOW, I am sick with it, one of my employees has it, my best friend's mother has it, some of my gamers have gone through it or are actively going through it, etc.

Seems like a bad time to drop restrictions.