D&D and the rising pandemic

So you're coming up with a reasoning for one case yet are discounting a multitude of possible reasonings for the USA situation.

We just don't have the information. It is impossible to look at a chart of confirmed cases vs deaths and find conclusions.

There are so many variables. I am not an expert and don't have the data. I doubt you are either.

Just admit you don't know.

Yeah, some people are concentrated in large cities, which could be compared with small countries, and other people are spread out more.

So people here wanting to make something of the US numbers should really look at it state by state, with special consideration for the metro areas.

For example, the latest numbers for my state of Virginia is 219 positive test results and 3 deaths, or 1.35% death rate so far. And most of our numbers are concentrated up by DC, which is not a surprise. But without looking up the numbers, I am sure some parts of the US are far worse, like that mess in the Seattle-area nursing homes, where the health care workers took the virus from place to place as they were doing their jobs.

@FrogReaver I think you said you are on the VA-TN border? There are now two cases in Lee county, which is where the VA part of Bristol is located.
 

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Sacrosanct

Legend
Also, keep in mind that with closed borders, the US will face a massive shortage of migrant farm workers. Which means food shortages and spoilage. Ideally one might think many Americans out of work could be working in the fields to replace them, but I doubt that will happen.

So be prepared if you can. Freeze produce that can be, and do your best to grow gardens yourself. Thankfully with the internet, there are countless videos out there that can show you the basics if you’ve never gardened before. And great ideas for small spaces in things like apartments. We did this during WWII, we can do it again.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Also, keep in mind that with closed borders, the US will face a massive shortage of migrant farm workers. Which means food shortages and spoilage. Ideally one might think many Americans out of work could be working in the fields to replace them, but I doubt that will happen.

So be prepared if you can. Freeze produce that can be, and do your best to grow gardens yourself. Thankfully with the internet, there are countless videos out there that can show you the basics if you’ve never gardened before. And great ideas for small spaces in things like apartments. We did this during WWII, we can do it again.

Food production will be the only jobs available.

Wages will be garbage along with prices.

Brothers lost his job he's a pilot thankfully he has no mortage. Sister's husband job is essential and is local government. Wife's job is essential area but they have to many staff so not sure what's gonna happen there.
 

ad_hoc

(they/them)
According to this site the US just saw an increase of 15 000 confirmed cases from yesterday to today bringing their total to 39 000. Placing them 3rd in the world behind China and Italy.

Things might get very bad very fast.


It also shows the amount of recovered cases.

Italy has the most deaths at 5500 but also have 7000 resolved cases.

The USA has 400 deaths but only 178 resolved cases. So the USA death count is low but most of the cases are new.
 

MoonSong

Rules-lawyering drama queen but not a munchkin
Also, keep in mind that with closed borders, the US will face a massive shortage of migrant farm workers. Which means food shortages and spoilage. Ideally one might think many Americans out of work could be working in the fields to replace them, but I doubt that will happen.
Yeah, it won't happen, but not for the reasons you think. While it is low-skilled on paper, laborers are anything but. They have a very specialized skill set that takes years to perfect. Someone who didn't grow up doing it under the guide of an experienced laborer will not be able to endure it for long (even if on top fitness level) and won't be as productive.

For farmers, hiring someone from the street to do the job borders on charity.
 

Sacrosanct

Legend
Yeah, it won't happen, but not for the reasons you think. While it is low-skilled on paper, laborers are anything but. They have a very specialized skill set that takes years to perfect. Someone who didn't grow up doing it under the guide of an experienced laborer will not be able to endure it for long (even if on top fitness level) and won't be as productive.

For farmers, hiring someone from the street to do the job borders on charity.

Igrew up working on a farm, and in the berry fields. So I know exactly what you’re talking about.
 

FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
According to this site the US just saw an increase of 15 000 confirmed cases from yesterday to today bringing their total to 39 000. Placing them 3rd in the world behind China and Italy.

Things might get very bad very fast.


It also shows the amount of recovered cases.

Italy has the most deaths at 5500 but also have 7000 resolved cases.

The USA has 400 deaths but only 178 resolved cases. So the USA death count is low but most of the cases are new.

that’s the site I’ve been using for numbers
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Igrew up working on a farm, and in the berry fields. So I know exactly what you’re talking about.

Been there done that. Might have to do it again.

Brothers a pilot, grew up on a farm, I worked on one when I was younger.

He laughed when I said he might finish up on one as he has lost his job already.

Wife's in freight behind the scenes there's been a collapse in that already. Her company is the largest in the country and a lot of ex customers have returned. The smaller companies are screwed.

Not sure her job is safe but looking at welfare possibilities. Already checked the sites.

Comic book stores and gamestores probably gone. Old one was closing soon anyway, new one was opening up but I suspect we'll be in lockdown by April 4. Apparently the landlord is being a hard ass with the lease, I would hardball back just refuse to pay its not like the courts will be open.
 
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seebs

Adventurer
That's not really how exponential growth works. 14k for us is presumably the same as 14k for them (some variation for social distancing and such)

Exponential growth starts with some number, and our starting number is probably larger than theirs, because we have more people to begin with, so more of our citizens returning from elsewhere probably had the virus. Similarly, our upper bound is significantly larger; we can double our number of cases 2-3 times more than a lot of other countries can.

Think about a hypothetical country with 100,000 people. For them, 14k is 14% of their population. That is going to happen about the same point in their curve that 14% of the population would take in our curve, because we've got many more people in many more different cities, etcetera.

So, basically: Don't think "starting from 1, how long does it take to get to 14k". Think "starting from 1-in-a-million, how long does it take to get to 14k". So for Italy, that'd be 60 to 14k, and for the US, it'd be 330 to 14k, which is to say, we're earlier in the curve.

Now maybe 14k of them means their hospitals are already overloaded while ours are not. I don't think that's the case for the European countries though.

How many people at once do you think can be taken care of by hospitals for a given population size, usually?

Italy tends to about 3ish hospital beds per 1k population, the US to a bit lower. But of course, some of those are already in use; estimates look like rough order of about half a free bed per 1k population, but they only have about half as many ICU slots per capita as we do. So in theory Italy as a whole might have, say, about 30k hospital beds available, for 60M population, while we have similar-ish numbers per capita, but about 330M people, so we have probably about 160k available beds. So 14k would be about half of all their theoretically available beds, and that means that a lot of specific places are badly overflowing already, while 14k here would be a much smaller proportion... so far. In the last day, the source I checked showed us with 8k new cases, Italy with 5k new cases. They're at about 60k total, we're only at about 32k, but we'll run past them, easily, in total numbers. (Consider: If we keep it to 20% of our population, that will be more cases than if 100% of their population got sick.)
 

FrogReaver

As long as i get to be the frog
Exponential growth starts with some number, and our starting number is probably larger than theirs, because we have more people to begin with, so more of our citizens returning from elsewhere probably had the virus. Similarly, our upper bound is significantly larger; we can double our number of cases 2-3 times more than a lot of other countries can.

Think about a hypothetical country with 100,000 people. For them, 14k is 14% of their population. That is going to happen about the same point in their curve that 14% of the population would take in our curve, because we've got many more people in many more different cities, etcetera.

So, basically: Don't think "starting from 1, how long does it take to get to 14k". Think "starting from 1-in-a-million, how long does it take to get to 14k". So for Italy, that'd be 60 to 14k, and for the US, it'd be 330 to 14k, which is to say, we're earlier in the curve.



How many people at once do you think can be taken care of by hospitals for a given population size, usually?

Italy tends to about 3ish hospital beds per 1k population, the US to a bit lower. But of course, some of those are already in use; estimates look like rough order of about half a free bed per 1k population, but they only have about half as many ICU slots per capita as we do. So in theory Italy as a whole might have, say, about 30k hospital beds available, for 60M population, while we have similar-ish numbers per capita, but about 330M people, so we have probably about 160k available beds. So 14k would be about half of all their theoretically available beds, and that means that a lot of specific places are badly overflowing already, while 14k here would be a much smaller proportion... so far. In the last day, the source I checked showed us with 8k new cases, Italy with 5k new cases. They're at about 60k total, we're only at about 32k, but we'll run past them, easily, in total numbers. (Consider: If we keep it to 20% of our population, that will be more cases than if 100% of their population got sick.)

Also
italy is slowing down the spread. We aren’t yet
 

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