D&D and the rising pandemic

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

I did podcast on this, may be of interest: THE BLACK DEATH (AND OTHER PLAGUE OUTBREAKS)

I think comparing things like this is difficult. In terms of impact, the black death was definitely worse. Obviously though we are much better at managing bacteria today (perhaps in 1,000 years we will be just as good at managing viruses). But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain. Being a virus it is going to be different from the black death. I think best to err on the side of taking a new pandemic like covid seriously. I've known two people who died from it so far. I don't pretend to know the best policy in terms of what we should be doing as a society, however.

That's my point. They're not really comparable. People say that it's not super deadly, and therefore we shouldn't care that much about it. These aren't similar things. Sure, they're deadly diseases that were given to us by other animals, but the similarities end there. Just because it's not as deadly as Black Death or Ebola doesn't mean that we shouldn't care about it.

I don't know anyone who has died so far, which is incredibly lucky of me, as my county now has more than 7,000 confirmed cases. I'm sorry that you know people who have died from this.

 

[Istbor]

Something like WW2 killed around 3.5% of the world's population, in some countries almost 1 in 3. Bit more if an impact.

I think you are underestimating the possible impact of this virus when all is said and done.

 

[Umbran]

I think you are underestimating the possible impact of this virus when all is said and done.

70-85 million people died in WWII. It was 3 to 3.5% of the world population, but the population was much smaller.

Those millions died over the course of 7 years. If we play conservative, that's ten million a year. So far, covid-19 has killed half a million in roughly half a year. So, if you think it is going to be like WWII... well, it would need to be ten times worse than what we have seen to date.

 

[Istbor]

70-85 million people died in WWII. It was 3 to 3.5% of the world population, but the population was much smaller.

Those millions died over the course of 7 years. If we play conservative, that's ten million a year. So far, covid-19 has killed half a million in roughly half a year. So, if you think it is going to be like WWII... well, it would need to be ten times worse than what we have seen to date.

I am not trying to account for an annual rack-up of WWII. Only that the potential is there to see a similar total when all is said and done. Maybe that takes 7 years, maybe it takes more. I certainly hope we can provide an effective way to fight it.

However constantly calling back to past events and saying "It's meh", is not a productive way to address a current crisis, in my opinion.

 

[Eltab]

But we know so little about this virus. We don't really know what the long term impact is, we don't know if it keeps re-activating like herpes or similar viruses. And we don't know what is down the pike in terms of a more lethal strain.

One of the things that makes me want to climb the walls is that nobody has collected the already-existing research on small-c coronaviruses and done a TV Special (or similar) on what we DO know about how they behave, spread, the typical course of an infection, what kills the viruses after they get in you, what conditions / environments they do or do not like while awaiting another victim, how quickly / slowly they perish in common circumstances (like "on plastic at room temperature"), medicines and treatment regimens that have been tried, measures to make your body more resistant beforehand and be a tough target, how to boost your immune system if you think you've got it, and so on.

It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."

 

[Bedrockgames]

One of the things that makes me want to climb the walls is that nobody has collected the already-existing research on small-c coronaviruses and done a TV Special (or similar) on what we DO know about how they behave, spread, the typical course of an infection, what kills the viruses after they get in you, what conditions / environments they do or do not like while awaiting another victim, how quickly / slowly they perish in common circumstances (like "on plastic at room temperature"), medicines and treatment regimens that have been tried, measures to make your body more resistant beforehand and be a tough target, how to boost your immune system if you think you've got it, and so on.

It's like the usual news, health, and government agencies all decided "nobody would be interested in any of that.". (Or "COVID-19 is so new and special that nothing else applies."

This is a topic where I've just been deferring to my doctor for reliable advice. My approach is to do what the doc says and to stay in shape, keep my lungs strong in case I do get sick, and make sure I am getting all the nutrients, sunlight, etc that I need (but not going overboard).

 

[Zardnaar]

I am not trying to account for an annual rack-up of WWII. Only that the potential is there to see a similar total when all is said and done. Maybe that takes 7 years, maybe it takes more. I certainly hope we can provide an effective way to fight it.

However constantly calling back to past events and saying "It's meh", is not a productive way to address a current crisis, in my opinion.

It's not so much that but humans have an ability to keep going even when there's risk.

Social distancing seems to be collapsing around the world even in countries that did well.

Basically you can't live in a state if constant fear without the threat being immediate and with terrible consequences.

That doesn't really happen that much and the odds of dying need to be higher than 0.01%.

1% of the American population is 3.2 million. 0.1% is 320 000. Current death toll is 120k iirc probably higher by now.

Some people are idiots, others are just got to get on with it.

Humans live on active volcanoes.

Ideally everyone gets 60000 calories and bunkers down for a month. Not really viable in most places.

 

[tomBitonti]

There was this video game, pandemic or something. About making a virus and mutating it to try to wipe out all the humans on the planet.

What Umbran says here is exactly spot on with the winning strategy. A virus that is too lethal, too early burns itself out before it can spread. You want something with a long incubation, so the carriers can spread it. Then (in the game) mutate to a more lethal version and wipe everybody out.

Plague, Inc, (Ndemic Creations) on IOS, is probably what you are thinking of: You craft a pathogen and mutate it as the game progress to adjust factors such as hardiness, symptoms (which affect transmission rates), and resistances.

There is also Pandemic the board game (published by Z-Man Games) but that is a cooperative game where you travel across the globe to suppress, cure, and eradicate several spreading diseases.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti

 

[Hussar]

Humans live on active volcanoes.

Oy, I do that.

 

[Zardnaar]

Oy, I do that.

Risk assessment and hope for the best

Our volcanoes bit to active to live on. One of thems a supervolcano iirc went up 2000 odd years ago.