D&D and the rising pandemic

[Istbor]

Yeah I was going to say. Not all weddings are the same. Some are pragmatic. Just not as common as today's more romanticized version.

Back on topic. Oof...
We had 1100+ new cases yesterday in Wisconsin. It is really hard to slow it down when only a few counties are actually mandating masks and trying to slow this spread, while the rest of the state is still celebrating ending the 'illegal' lockdown.

 

[Retreater]

Yeah I was going to say. Not all weddings are the same. Some are pragmatic. Just not as common as today's more romanticized version.

Back on topic. Oof...
We had 1100+ new cases yesterday in Wisconsin. It is really hard to slow it down when only a few counties are actually mandating masks and trying to slow this spread, while the rest of the state is still celebrating ending the 'illegal' lockdown.

Yeah. There's very little unity in America. It's sad that we can't come together during a time of crisis.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

Yeah. There's very little unity in America. It's sad that we can't come together during a time of crisis.

It's especially sad that we seem more divided now than ever before in my life time, and this is the one time we need to be united.

 

[NotAYakk]

Numbers are starting to climb in Ottawa, Canada. Diagnosed 30-40 per day in a metro area of 1.3 million or so, significantly up from the single-digits it was down to.

Many of the new infections are from people breaking "stage 2" rules and having indoor parties. We have since moved to "stage 3", which permits bars to reopen.

Not a good trajectory right before school starts.

It feels weird to complain about 30 cases/day. But on a log scale that is -4.6 per capita, up from -5.2.

Florida on the log scale is -3.3 per capita. Texas etc is similar.

(An exponential growth curve moves up a log scale at a relatively constant rate, so when dealing with pandemics it can illuminate differences better.)

 

[Zardnaar]

Numbers are starting to climb in Ottawa, Canada. Diagnosed 30-40 per day in a metro area of 1.5 million or so, significantly up from the single-digits it was down to.

Many of the new infections are from people breaking "stage 2" rules and having indoor parties. We have since moved to "stage 3", which permits bars to reopen.

Not a good trajectory right before school starts.

Seems obvious management vs elimination doesn't work.

4 weeks ago Australia was similar to NZ now they're getting 400+ cases a day and there's fear it's spread outside Victoria.

 

[NotAYakk]

Seems obvious management vs elimination doesn't work.

4 weeks ago Australia was similar to NZ now they're getting 400+ cases a day and there's fear it's spread outside Victoria.

We where on a path to elimination; down to 5ish cases/day in most regions of the province (the size of most countries).

Rf was about 0.5. If there are 10 undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed, that means we where at ~50 infections/day and we where spotting ~5 of them (the rest would be asymptomatic or barely symtomatic; a factor of 10 is a safety factor).

At a cycle time of 4ish days, that is like 23 days away from 0 real infections/day. Elimination.

As Rf goes up, so does the number of cycles (pretty fast) to eliminate.

Maybe the government figured a vaccine was coming shortly, so manual elimination wasn't worth it... or maybe they just decided it wasn't worth rich people's tax dollars to finish the job.

 

[Nebulous]

Yeah. There's very little unity in America. It's sad that we can't come together during a time of crisis.

Totally agreed. And there is rioting in the streets at the same time

 

[Zardnaar]

We where on a path to elimination; down to 5ish cases/day in most regions of the province (the size of most countries).

Rf was about 0.5. If there are 10 undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed, that means we where at ~50 infections/day and we where spotting ~5 of them (the rest would be asymptomatic or barely symtomatic; a factor of 10 is a safety factor).

At a cycle time of 4ish days, that is like 23 days away from 0 real infections/day. Elimination.

As Rf goes up, so does the number of cycles (pretty fast) to eliminate.

Maybe the government figured a vaccine was coming shortly, so manual elimination wasn't worth it... or maybe they just decided it wasn't worth rich people's tax dollars to finish the job.

A month or so of full lockdown would wipe it out at 5/day.

Or bring down so low you can contain it.

Complacency perhaps.

NZ tempts Covid-19 fate by not introducing masks - researchers

New Zealand would have seen 990 to 4200 Covid-19 deaths if our losses matched OECD rates, but we're still tempting fate by not introducing masks, experts say.

www.rnz.co.nz

No one's wearing masks,I think we have 7 somewhere.

 

[Umbran]

As of August 1st, we have travel restrictions for folks coming into Massachusetts.

If you don't come from a list of low-risk states (at the moment, New England, NY, NJ, and Hawaii) or don't fit a short list of exclusions you need to:

1) File a travel form
2) Either quarantine for 14 days, or submit the results of a negative Covid-19 test.

Fail to do so and you are subject to a fine of $500/day you are not compliant.

No word on the enforcement strategy they intend to use.

 

[Zardnaar]

5 escapes from quarantine. Family thought the rules didn't apply.

Boys in blue found them, currently guests of her majesty awaiting charges.

Five people escape isolation facility in Hamilton

A 17-year-old man remains missing after he and four others escaped their isolation hotel in Hamilton tonight.

www.rnz.co.nz