D&D General D&D Beyond's Users Online Over Last Year

[mamba]

I mean it literally did. We can, quite clearly, see a massive bump.

that was not a sustained bump, that was people looking at their new PHB / DMG. If outside of looking at that (for a week or so) there is no uptick in D&D for months to several years but instead we see a continuing decline, then there was no bump - unless for you the short term of a week or two where people looked at their new book qualifies.

For me it does not, that is just a sale. The bump would have to go well into 2026 at a minimum, better yet 2 to 3 years, for me to see it as a bump. Instead we have a falling line pretty much immediately after the core books were released right until now.

You could have gotten that exact same line and usage number without releasing 5.5, it looks very much like the continuation of the line from before the new core was released, so the new core did not make a difference outside of generating sales for the core books, they did not breathe new life in the game that was maybe starting to get stale after 10 years.

Let’s see what the next 12 months show, but so far there was no change in trajectory

 

[Clint_L]

I can’t be the only one who looked at it and just thought, hey, neat, thanks to @Morrus and his friend, that’s a nice tough look at overall site usage in that span of time.

Except it’s not clear that it is. Thus the discussion. There are so many variables and missing information. So folks are wondering what to make of it.

Sans more context, all I feel comfortable saying is that there are some numbers.

 

[Autumnal]

It’s a plausible-looking curve of DDB users. I don’t think the problem is with the curve, but with people who want it to have more precision than that. It’s a bit like looking at someone’s sketched map and being unhappy it’s not up to USGS standards. It can’t bear any of the specific loads people have been trying to pile on it, but - Morris can correct me,,of course - I don’t think that’s whst it’s here for.

 

[SummonToast]

I checked using the app and it doesn't seem to update the last active time.

I'm not sure what the chart means by Weekly Average Users. Maybe it is a rolling average? It seems too fine grained for averaging a week at a time.

You're right, it's a weekly rolling average of the number of members online (not number of members in a week, but average members online at any given time in that week). The rolling average helps to smooth out the local differences between days of the week and times of day.

 

[Reynard]

Data in isolation is interesting, but can't tell us much. I would love to this this curve compared to a similar curve for EN World. Maybe overall online engagement for D&D is down. Who knows?

I would also like to the various 3PP releases on that chart. Are enough folks going to DNDB for Drakkenheim to make it worth the effort, for example?

 

[FrogReaver]

Perhaps what time of day the data is logged matters?

(What was that black-clad figure that just swept past. A ninja no doubt.)

Yea. My supposition is that without rigorous protocols around the timing of checking OR timestamps for the test AND some way to translate measurements taken at a different time of day into a measurement at a standard time then while it’s interesting data, it’s enough to draw hard conclusions on. I’d note, the YOY decline doesn’t look great and would concern me if I owned a product on that trajectory.

 

[AlViking]

This data may be able to tell us something if we had years worth of data. As it its, all we know is that it's likely people were curious as to what was coming, spent a lot of time reading the new books and rules. Now people that have adopted the new rules have a better grasp on them so no reason to access as often. Meanwhile there's vacations, campaigns put on hold or slowed down because students aren't in school, people are busy with summertime activities.

Give it a couple of years and it might be meaningful. Although people will still probably try to find something to prove whatever it is they believe.

 

[mamba]

My supposition is that without rigorous protocols around the timing of checking OR timestamps for the test AND some way to translate measurements taken at a different time of day into a measurement at a standard time then while it’s interesting data, it’s enough to draw hard conclusions on

the data being taken every 15 minutes and then averaged should cover that.

The only thing missing is a longer timeframe to see the actual development better

 

[FrogReaver]

the data being taken every 15 minutes and then averaged should cover that.

The only thing missing is a longer timeframe to see the actual development better

Is that what was actually done. Or was it just a single 15 minute segment at any time of the day for 365 days?

 

[abazaba]

It tells you DDB’s users over time.

Ok.
So specifically, the average number of registered DDB users simultaneously online at any given time ? Which, without any further details or context, does not tell you all that much, it seems ? (At least not anything beyond 'not further defined DDB usage' ?)