D&D General D&D Worth "23 Billion"?!?!

[Mistwell]

No I said D&D may be worth less than a billion. WotC is worth more obviously due to magic.

I think the share market returns 8-10% long term, government bonds vary but say 5%.

So I woukd be aiming at 5-10% return on investments.

On a billion dollars let's say 7%. 70 million a year.

If D&D doesn't generate 70 million a year I wouldn't pay a billion for it. I understand you might ay a slight premium for something but that's not 2 or 3vbillion people are throwing around.

So my premium price I would pay would be towards the top end of my 5-10% range. Maybe a little more but not X2 or X3.

One would have to look at the books as well. BG3 65 million is a one off thing that's not a yearly income stream.

So it's basic math for me if I was investing and opportunity cost. Most likely I would personally value it in the 500'800 million range.

Depending on the state books I might go higher. The price would be how much money it makes per year, potential for growth etc. I wouldn't ay 2 billion for example probably not even a billion.

Basic math and opportunity cost would say no (exception it earns more than we know atm).. that just me the returns I would want and the opportunity cost of investing elsewhere.

OK based on whose expert opinion is D&D worth less than $1B? You?

You've made comments like these about, from my count, at least three different industries. I've asked you before what your level of education and experience in the field is regarding these topics, and you always ignore the question. But then you go on to another industry and make statements about valuations with a level of extreme certainty.

It's fair to ask why you speak with such a high level of confidence about valuation issues which even many experts I know would never state with such a level of certainty without seeing closely held private corporate books. I professional did Mergers and Acquisitions for a decade. I worked with some of the top accounting firms and valuation experts in the nation. I took companies public. And nobody, and I mean NOBODY I ever encountered would make firm statements like you've made about the Entertainment Industry for example (which you have, repeatedly) the Video Game industry, and now the value of the D&D segment of the WOTC division of Hasbro.

So is it just your amateur guess, or are you speaking from direct experience in the industry? If you're just making this up based on your guesses as an amateur, that's fine. Just say that.

 

[Morrus]

Bit rude imho.

You habitually post unsubstantiated opinion as fact and brush aside criticism. Expect pushback. People don’t like that.

My suggestion would be to explain why I should take your valuation above any others. Because from here, it just looks like bloviating. I’m happy to be proved wrong.

 

[Zardnaar]

You habitually post unsubstantiated opinion as fact and brush aside criticism. Expect pushback. People don’t like that.

My suggestion would be to explain why I should take your valuation above any others. Because from here, it just looks like bloviating. I’m happy to be proved wrong.

Well how much would you pay then? Assuming it's your own money?

Or just go with declear yourself right?

 

[Zardnaar]

OK based on whose expert opinion is D&D worth less than $1B? You?

You've made comments like these about, from my count, at least three different industries. I've asked you before what your level of education and experience in the field is regarding these topics, and you always ignore the question. But then you go on to another industry and make statements about valuations with a level of extreme certainty.

It's fair to ask why you speak with such a high level of confidence about valuation issues which even many experts I know would never state with such a level of certainty without seeing closely held private corporate books. I professional did Mergers and Acquisitions for a decade. I worked with some of the top accounting firms and valuation experts in the nation. I took companies public. And nobody, and I mean NOBODY I ever encountered would make firm statements like you've made about the Entertainment Industry for example (which you have, repeatedly) the Video Game industry, and now the value of the D&D segment of the WOTC division of Hasbro.

So is it just your amateur guess, or are you speaking from direct experience in the industry? If you're just making this up based on your guesses as an amateur, that's fine. Just say that.

Nasic math and what I can earn elsewhere via investing

Work out what you want on your return. One would need access to WotC book.

One could do 3 numbers for example from what we do know (high, medium, low) and work out from there expected returns.

Then throw some numbers at projected future growth.

Eventually you'll come up with a number where buying D&D isn't worth it even with most optimistic projections.

As per previous discussion you know we have no mortgage and we paid place off in 1 years.

% rate is the same if it's 100k vs a billion.

I'm only saying what I would be prepared to pay for it vs investing in other options. That is all.

And I've said if the boys and future growth prospects are goid that number would go up.

Since no one has access to that information one can prove.

Its just my opinion never claimed to be an expert or is it required. Math isnt that hard. Expected gains vs cost eork it out from there. A billions a nice round number along with 500 or 1500 or 2000.

 

[Mistwell]

Its just my opinion never claimed to be an expert

Gotcha, so it's just your amateur opinion. That's all you needed to say.

 

[Zardnaar]

Gotcha, so it's just your amateur opinion. That's all you needed to say.

Well it's also based on what was earlier in the thread. Not sure if you read it.

23 billion was several years income for the entire tt game.

Gasbros worth 8 billi9n apparently (earlier in thread).
We know Magic is a lot bigger than D&D around 4-5 tines iirc.

So yes its my opinion D&D would be worth less than a billion since it's one brand I'm Hasbros portfolio and Magics a lot bigger.

That's how I have said opinion based on publicly available information.

If the 8 billion for Hasbro is wrong for example (wasn't my number btw) mine will be as well.

The books could also reveal other things but Hasbro has also said D&D is down and next year won't be great.

More context other posters were throwing around multiple billions when Hasbro is worth 8.

Yes I can read a financial report, work out compound interest, and expected returns.

 

[Mistwell]

Well it's also based on what was earlier in the thread. Not sure if you read it.

23 billion was several years income for the entire tt game.

Gasbros worth 8 billi9n apparently (earlier in thread).
We know Magic is a lot bigger than D&D around 4-5 tines iirc.

So yes its my opinion D&D would be worth less than a billion since it's one brand I'm Hasbros portfolio and Magics a lot bigger.

That's how I have said opinion based on publicly available information.

If the 8 billion for Hasbro is wrong for example (wasn't my number btw) mine will be as well.

The books could also reveal other things but Hasbro has also said D&D is down and next year won't be great.

More context other posters were throwing around multiple billions when Hasbro is worth 8.

Yes I can read a financial report, work out compound interest, and expected returns.

You have no basis to determine the multiple on revenue (if using that equation for value) or multiple on profit (if using that equation for value). Valuation depends on a lot of factors and unknowns about future pipelines.

 

[Zardnaar]

You have no basis to determine the multiple on revenue (if using that equation for value) or multiple on profit (if using that equation for value). Valuation depends on a lot of factors and unknowns about future pipelines.

I'm aware ultimately it's worth whatever someone's prepared to pay for it.

OP post is debunked no it's not worth 23 billion.

You can't really specify either. I laid out my arguments and why. You can agree or not doesn't bother me.

8 billion company, WitC is largest part of that apparently but the big Kahana is MtG.

That's why I said I wouldn't pay a billion. No capital gains tax here so there's other things I would rather invest in. Ymmv of course.

If I has a spare billion I would invest ot conservatively or waste it on something completely stupid eg private ranch in "Rohan" and build a scale model of helms deep or something.