D&D 4E David Noonan on 4E "Cloudwatching" (Added Dave's newest comment from his blog)

[Celebrim]

As for the patronizing thing, well, that wasn't my intent. And it's embarrassing when you write for a living and can't get your point across properly. Sorry about that.

Happens to the best of us. Ask MaRo about my first post to the WotC boards.

It was I think an unfortunate metaphor, in this case mostly I was seeing what sort of trouble would be stirred up if I took the metaphor in the worst light possible. I wasn't actually insulted or I would have been doing more than lurking on this thread while the storm blew through.

I am concerned that the WotC feels the need to take the game is not one I'll find helpful. It's a pretty cloud, but its not my cloud. Someone may like it, but its not me. I am also concerned that with revolutionary changes to the system are going to come large balance issues that will rear thier head six months or a year after publication and prompt sufficient errata that we'll end up seeing what is effectively 4.5 within two years of publication. Frankly, I don't see how you can avoid that given how close you are to going to the printer. It might be a pretty cloud, but it is a storm cloud and it will damage something. This isn't mere polishing you are doing.

I'm equally certain that nothing I will tell you is going to change anything. Certain decisions are already firm, and are motivated by high level business decisions which really are out of my hands and probably yours.

If it makes you feel any better, you should be less concerned about all the negativity at this stage than all the optimism. Since the fan base doesn't really know anything substantial, the appropriate responce is fear and anxiety. Like any rabid fan base, they think they have an near equal ownership in your property and you are threatening it. But the pessimists you can win over because just about anything is better than the unknown. If your work is good, they will come around. It's the optimists that better worry you, because right now they are writing on the blank slate of 4E all thier (conflicting) hopes and dreams and when the thing actually gets here and it isn't exactly what they hoped for they are going to be the ones you really lose.

 

[WayneLigon]

...if every one of those was a significant improvement over what came before, then they either hadn't been trying too hard at the outset, or the edition coming out in May should be one small step down from the version you get to play in paradise after you die.

No, I'm convinced that what they are doing is trying to lessen the impact on the massive playerbase that has grown too conservative due to the long edition cycles. They have to lever it up in comparatively smaller doses to get people used to certain ideas and get them to abandon certain sacred cows in degrees rather than all at once and suffer the backlash. I mean, if I was the head guy in charge, 4E would have stats* and there would be monsters and treasure and rip-roaring adventure.. and almost nothing else would be the same. That might not go over well with a significant section of the fanbase so instead of doing it all at once, you do it in five-year-plans or whatever.

* On second thought, maybe it would have stats as we know them, maybe not. I could easily love stats that were just modifiers. Or 'Your Dexterity is BLUE'. Or whatever.

 

[Gundark]

How about the chances of enough people saying No that is noticeably cuts into their projected sales?

Problem is that there are more people who want 4e than are gonna stick with 3.5.
The items that 4e is proposing definetly have my group interested in playing D&D again. My group was pretty much "no more" with 3.5

 

[Cadfan]

wotc_dave- You couldn't get your point across because people didn't want you to get your point across to them. As I'm sure you noticed. So try this. Write an article about how 4e is mandatory, how 3.5 is terrible, and how after May, even god won't love people who still play 3.5. Insinuate that wizards of the coast will not only stop publishing new 3.5 material, but will actually refuse to attend conventions where local DMs are permitted to run games under 3.5. Make a vague allusion to a plan to release an edition named only 4.2.

Hopefully enough people will die in the process of reading it that we can enjoy leaked 4e information in the spirit it is intended henceforth.

 

[Aeolius]

"... get your head out of the clouds and back in the water where it belongs" - Sebastian

Sorry... had to.

Granted, I'm a "leap-grognard"; I was a 1e old-timer that skipped 2e and returned to the fold with 3e. I recently started a new IRC chat-based game and would like to convert to the 4e rules, when they are available. So long as I can run a 4e game in the World of Greyhawk, in a setting entirely underwater with non-core races, I'll be set. Did I mention that the BBEG is a bard? Oh, and the D&DI won't run on my Mac, so that's out too.

I was still looking forward to years of 3.5e releases; "The Hydronomicon", "Races of Water", "Complete Aquan", and "Waterscape", for a start. "Tome of Magic II: Hag Magic" would have been a boon (which brings us to the merging of the erinyes and succubus... wrong direction, for my tastes, I wanted female daemons and demodands and have created such beasties for my games).

The whole monster role versus PC role scares the bejeebers out of me, as I don't use core races in my games, aside from NPCs.

I plan to purchase the 4e MM, PH, and DMG. If 4e fits my eclectic preferences, then I might convert my campaign(s). If it looks like 4e and I are heading in different directions, then I'll see you at 5e.

 

[Raven Crowking]

Problem is that there are more people who want 4e than are gonna stick with 3.5.

How could you possibly know that?


As an aside to Dave:

Thanks for clarifying that blog a bit. I'll call it "reader filter" and leave it at that. However, since you asked about how our games are going (or were looking for input):

(1) I use weapon skills in my homebrew, and it works great. I can give you a link, and I'd be happy for nothing more than a credit if you decide to use 'em.

(2) Some of the teaser stuff should either include a few specifics, or should be held off for later, unless the point is to rile up folks like myself.

That's about it.


RC

 

[Kid Charlemagne]

How could you possibly know that?

Signs are pointing that way - the poll here about "what do you think so fa" was running 57% positive to 12% negative at the point when I voted.

 

[BryonD]

How could you possibly know that?

My three year old daughter knows pretty much nothing about science.
But she still knows that the sun will come up tomorrow.

It just is what it is.


The sun will come up tomorrow and 4E will quickly overshadow 3X.

 

[Gundark]

How could you possibly know that?

Your right I don't. I'm only going by local chatter. OTOH I get equally tired of people assuming the opposite. That people don't want 4e.

 

[Celebrim]

Signs are pointing that way - the poll here about "what do you think so fa" was running 57% positive to 12% negative at the point when I voted.

Doesn't mean anything. At this point we don't know anything, so people are voting according to thier personality, not thier knowledge.

What is going to mean something is the trend. Do the same poll in a month or in two months or in six. If negativity has creeped up, or worse yet, positivity has trended down, then that would mean something. On the other hand, if negativity stays flat and positivity creeps up, then that would suggest that indeed the new edition will be accepted.

It's also worth noting that EnWorld is probably a lot more positive as a community about the 4E development than just about anywhere else. It's not a scientific sample.