Decline of RPG sales

[Belen]

I think you have an idea of the general workings of what is being discussed but might have lost sight of the context. There are economics of scale being ignored in your example. You seem to be saying a dandelions aren't viable as a plant in a flower arrangement because you can squeeze more breakfast juice from a grove of oranges.

It's not that it is not a viable business model. Print runs of 1-3k are really only meant to sell to ENWorlders or RPGneters though. So, in this instance, a decline in sales for such small print runs would have no bearing on the "market" at all. Wizards could be perfectly correct that the industry is fine and doing better than ever while those people who print such small quanities are dying off due to a strong competition with PDF sellers.

A print run of 1-3k is no competition for WOTC market share. It is competition for savvy online consumers who may be switching to PDFs because of price.

 

[buzz]

1-3k is a joke in the publishing world.

But it's pretty good for an RPG company that isn't WotC, WW, GW/BI, or Mongoose. For a PDF publisher, it's a runaway hit.

 

[JoeGKushner]

A print run of 1-3k is no competition for WOTC market share. It is competition for savvy online consumers who may be switching to PDFs because of price.

I could be way off but NO other publisher is in competition for WOTC market share. No one. Not White Wolf, not Steve Jackson Games, not Atlas and not Mongoose.

I could be 100% wrong but don't think so and don't think that they ever were or will be in a position to get market share fro mWOTC.

 

[buzz]

Print runs of 1-3k are really only meant to sell to ENWorlders or RPGneters though. So, in this instance, a decline in sales for such small print runs would have no bearing on the "market" at all.

But this is the scale at which most RPG publishers exist. As I mentioned above, there's only a handful of companies regularly dealing with bigger numbers than this.

 

[Mark CMG]

So, in this instance, a decline in sales for such small print runs would have no bearing on the "market" at all.

Did *I* miss *your* point then? Why did you bring them up at all? Was it only to make sure that small print runs and the companies who exist on them were addressed and discarded as not a significant factor of the "Industry in Decline" conversation? (A perfectly legitimate point and one I'm willing to concede.) It may be that I have unnecessarily sidetracked the discussion further by picking up on that point and, if so, I apologize.

 

[buzz]

I could be way off but NO other publisher is in competition for WOTC market share. No one. Not White Wolf, not Steve Jackson Games, not Atlas and not Mongoose.

You're not off. To paraphrase Monte Cook, a scale which includes all RPG publishers is one on which anyone who isn't WotC doesn't even register. WotC isn't in competition with any other company in the industry. If anyone, they're in competition with video game makers.

 

[JoeGKushner]

You're not off. To paraphrase Monte Cook, a scale which includes all RPG publishers is one on which anyone who isn't WotC doesn't even register. WotC isn't in competition with any other company in the industry. If anyone, they're in competition with video game makers.

And if that's the case, and WoTC is telling the truth about their sales, then the market is not in decline since they've had another great year.

 

[William Ronald]

You're not off. To paraphrase Monte Cook, a scale which includes all RPG publishers is one on which anyone who isn't WotC doesn't even register. WotC isn't in competition with any other company in the industry. If anyone, they're in competition with video game makers.

Scale is an important factor to consider. I do not have any real insights into how sales are doing over all, just my own observations. I think one thing that has to be remembered is that WotC is not just the largest RPG publisher, it also benefits from a powerful corporate parent in terms of distribution.

Monte Cook may well be right about how other companies stack up to WotC in terms of sales. So, if this is the case, then monitoring WotC sales would probably be the best easy measure of the health of the industry. Thus, if Wotc had an 875 percent market share -- as an example -- then looking at WotC sales might be a bit more important as an indicator of overall industry health than looking at the next largest company or smaller companies.

 

[buzz]

And if that's the case, and WoTC is telling the truth about their sales, then the market is not in decline since they've had another great year.

The health of D&D is generally a good indicator of the health of the industry. However, I can see putting forth the idea that, since they are on a whole different scale from most other publishers, it's possible for small companies to be languishing despite WotC's success. I don't know if that's what Belen was trying to get at.

Still, if WotC had their best year ever, and Mongoose (the top d20 publisher) apparently just had their best year ever, I'm not sure whether there's a lot of evidence for an industry-wide malaise. As I said many pages ago, the economy has not been great and gas prices are up. Given that many RPG publishers live on the edge of profitability, I can see how a lot of them might be hurting. I can also see how publishers trying to do the same-old, same-old --especially w/r/t d20-- would be hurting.

 

[MerricB]

If you look back to John Nephew's post earlier in this thread (it's on the first page), you'll see there is a downwards trend for RPG sales through retailers.

I'm wary of such figures, however, as they are unlikely to take online sellers into consideration - and such are likely to have a huge effect in what is really quite a small market.

Consider this as well: D&D had its best year ever this year. These figures do *not* count the sales of D&D miniatures, which have been very healthy as far as I can tell.

Have the sales of DDM impacted on the purchase of 3rd party products? When we are talking about such small sales in the first place, I think it is extremely likely.

A person who would otherwise buy 1-3 d20 System products a month could get 1-10 boosters for the same price. Hmm.

Cheers!