Did WotC underestimate the Paizo effect on 4E?

[DaveMage]

Only if you take Hasbro's Corporate Speak PR Machine at face value.

For those that do, please let me know.

I'd like to start a database...

 

[Hunter In Darkness]

Ummm.... I would be very suprised to hear anything like that. Heck, I'd be suprised if they even had 5% of the RPG market. And I'm a Paizo subscriber.

ICv2 has reported for the 2Q of 2010 the top five selling RPG's are

1: Dungeons & Dragons

2: Pathfinder

3: Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay

4: ShadowRun

5: Rogue Trader/Dark Heresy

The 1Q were

1: Dungeons & Dragons

2: Pathfinder

3: Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay

4: Rogue Trader/Dark Heresy

5: Dragon age


So yes pathfinder is firmly in 2nd place for table top RPG sells

 

[Wicht]

Ummm.... I would be very suprised to hear anything like that. Heck, I'd be suprised if they even had 5% of the RPG market. And I'm a Paizo subscriber.

Black Diamond Games reported they were selling Pathfinder over 4e by a 2 to 1 margin. Other store owners have reported similar swings. Whether it lasts or not is a matter for speculation, but I think Pathfinder is pretty well positioned for an underdog.

 

[Markn]

I think that this was a major mistake on WotC's part. As much as I love 4E, WotC simply can't write adventures that are as good as what Paizo does. I think they were under the impression that they could, and that it would be no big deal, but it is a seriously big deal to me.

I think WotC chooses NOT to design adventures like Paizo. I don't think its a case of CAN'T. Since the start of 3e, WotC drastically reduced the number of modules they released (generally leaving that to 3pp). In 4e, its still the same but now the entire game seems to be targetted to newcomers (as others have said, the grassroots level) and therefore modules design has to follow that tenant as well. Thus simple adventures are a necessity for WotC. Its also my opinion that WotC believes veteran players tend to write their own stuff and therefore there is a smaller market segment to appeal to, which in turn produces diminished returns in adventure designs of that area. Lastly, since Paizo already designs adventures of this type, the market segment is even that much more smaller and competing just doesn't make sense.

Remember, the expectation of sales for WotC is a lot different than the expetation of sales for Paizo.

You simply can't compare the two, because each company is focusing on a different segment of the market which is by choice, not because they can't.

 

[Azmyth]

Post removed because the post it references has been addressed by moderators. Please report problematic posts instead of arguing back. ~ PCat

 

[Shemeska]

I don't think WotC even considered the possibility that 4e would be anything else but a smashing success. Given past history, they probably didn't need to, but they didn't seem to consider that such a radical departure from D&D up to that point in history might not fly with many people. The PR goofs in the runup to the game didn't help either.

Clearly things didn't go fully according to plan (and if I can't get you to accept that assertation of mine -even if nothing else- we're on different planets), and I can't help but read various recent developments with WotC as being suggestive of some increasingly nervous jitters and some "ahhh crud..." moments. I suspect that they've lost market share to other games (20, 30, 40%?), and are really at a loss of how to cope with it without alienating the people that genuinely like the 4e game, their own professional pride in the game that they created, and pressure from up top if the line falls below projected income.

The development of the Essentials line being rushed to market seemingly ahead of other things and having gone from 'getting new people on board' to backtracking and marketed increasingly as more to get non-4e adopters on board with 4e. Reorganization of the design team and big name layoffs, some books being cancelled or being pushed back, layoffs not during the annual Xmas-time layoffs, and even little things like some new 4e books recycling art at an almost 50% level (Demonomicon as an example) suggesting tighter budgets all around (and if no new DDI programs are announced at GenCon that too would be telling), point me to not all being well in the state of WotC's D&D segment (as well as that being a horribly long sentence).

If Essentials doesn't do well to bring 4e back up to where they expected it to be in the market originally, I see big changes in the future. But of course, I could be entirely off base. We'll see in a year or two.

 

[AllisterH]

Please keep in mind that M:TG is selling like gangbusters for WOTC (and even Hasbro is mentioning it in their quarterly reports with reporters) so WOTC itself as a company is probably in fantastic shape.

As for DDI, WOTC isn't going to say peep about it until the product is one to two weeks away. WOTC learned its lesson that it better to say NOTHING than even hint at something.

 

[Roland55]

Black Diamond Games reported they were selling Pathfinder over 4e by a 2 to 1 margin. Other store owners have reported similar swings. Whether it lasts or not is a matter for speculation, but I think Pathfinder is pretty well positioned for an underdog.

I wouldn't really know.

I can report that an impressive number of PF products have shown up in my rather populous neck of the woods. Right next to the WOTC products.

Frankly, I was surprised.

 

[Mark CMG]

So yes pathfinder is firmly in (. . .)

Paizo has a pretty big direct sales/subscription program (and I do not know if anyone else on that list has one at all). I'm not sure how those rankings are surmised but that is something to consider, too.

 

[Hunter In Darkness]

That takes into account whats distributors and such buy, I am pretty sure it does not include direct sales as Paizo does not share that info.