Exclusive interview WotC President Greg Leeds

[Bigassgeek]

I don't know why you wouldn't trust his statements at face value.

They're not extremely substantive statements to begin with, so, you know, for what they are, do you have any contradictory info?

Cuz otherwise this isn't about what he said; it's more about your personal feelings. There's a place for that, but I don't think this is the place.

Sadly, I think this IS the place for that...

 

[Fenes]

I am not sure what's the point of asking for an interview and than taking the information they actually give and assume it's a lie? Why do you even ask if you don't believe any of what they say? How are you even able to talk meaningful about an interview if you assume it might all be lying and deception. In the end, you will just be reading in the interview what you already believed to know, regardless whether the content comfirms your belief or violates it.

That's not true. As anyone with some background in law enforcement knows, you check any statement for signs of lies, and signs of the truth being spoken. You do not assume it's lies and deception from the start, you do that once you read it, and found too many evasions and (at most) half-truths.

And, sad to say, that interview sounded like a defense lawyer's statement. Not outright lies, but so full of omissions and evasions anyone who is not blind would not take it at face value.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I think people are looking at the interview in the light of WotC's track record and series of PR problems over the last year and a half, plus the evident facts connected to the current situation, and making their assessment based on that data. I understand your willingness to give WotC the benefit of the doubt but a lot of people are up in arms for what appear to be very fair reasons. I think if the WotC track record and current evident facts were not as weighty, you would not have to be working so hard to calm those who are angry or quell those who are suspicious.

You mean track record that is typically colored by myths and rumors? I remember the outrage by some fans that 4E was supposedly outright denied until shortly before the new edition, when further investigation always showed that the actual comments never said that. They never did say outright they were planning or 4E, and they said what they would not do if there was ever a 4E...

Yes, I get it. I guess it's pointless... Thank god that I am not in marketing or public relations...

 

[Fenes]

I utterly agree. If you're not going to believe what someone says, then why ask them the question in the first place?

Haven't you ever tried to find out the truth by asking questions to several people, and then pieced together what happened? Haven't you ever disproven a statement just by asking questions, until you spotted the lie, or omissions, by the contradictions or evasions there were?

 

[Nagol]

Does this mean it can't be the reason for WotC decision? As you say, there is an "if" involved, and moreover - WotC might just see it differently, however wrong they are.

<snip>

You asked fo a peer-reviewed study that contradicted WotC's position. I provided one.

Anything can be the reason for the decision. Perhaps the assumptions in the study don't fit and WotC acted to the best of their ability. Perhaps there is a new strategy that ties IP into a subscription model and selling pdfs doesn't fit. Perhaps an executive had a blinding hangover and just wanted the conversation done and said "Do it and do it now." Perhaps someone misinterpreted the piracy as theft from the pdf stores and decided to pull all remaining product back. "Why" is the hardest question to answer because unless you are present, you do not even know what inputs were fed into the black box that gave the answer.

All we can do is ask is if the decision seems rational and appropriate in light of established fact and standard models.

The study suggests a revenue impact form pirating <=10%. Is this sufficient to shut down the pdf line? Possibly, for future releases. Assumnptions around quality of provided pdfs and scanned vs. reasons for pirating would affect that decision.

It is established that the pdfs did sell. Any model I can imagine suggests piracy of those products will continue. It is even reasonable to assume that the slashdotting and the wider media interest is likely grow interest in the product.

It is known that WotC will not see any further revenue from those products.

Is removing pdfs from the stores an appropriate choice? I can come up with scenarios where the answer is yes and others where it is no.

The yes answer depends on a shift to subscription vs purchase model for IP delivery. Rationally, you would want the cutover period to be short to limit damage, but other factors may be involved (WotC tends to be over optimistic on their ability to deliver technology).

The no answer requires an over-reaction on the part of WotC either through panic, misunderstanding, or miscommunication between layers.

 

[Mark]

You mean track record that is typically colored by myths and rumors?

Not at all. Just what has happened, not how it has been spun for good or ill.

 

[roguerouge]

Why yes, as a matter of fact. http://www.ifo.de/pls/guestci/downl...orking Papers January 2004/cesifo1_wp1122.pdf

The money quote in the conclusions is "We have analyzed the RIAA’s claim that music downloads are causing a substantial decrease in CD sales. Our cross-section regression confirms their fear: we find that music downloading could have caused a 10% reduction in CD sales worldwide in 2001."

(Here come the ifs in the hypothesis) If pdfs are similar to mp3s in the patterns of acquisition then the 10:1 download ratio actually results in a 1:11 reduction in sales.

Not so fast, my friend.

Summary: A joint study by the Harvard University Business School and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill proved that the RIAA’s argument is not as strong as they would like. Harvard professor Felix Oberholzer-Gee’s results showed that it took 5,000 downloads for the sale of an album to be reduced by one copy. In addition to this startling discovery came an even bigger one: when it came to popular artists, record sales actually improved from downloading music – sales increased by one copy for every 150 downloads.

Interview: Music Downloads: Pirates—or Customers? — HBS Working Knowledge
The study: http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/FileSharing_March2004.pdf

 

[Nagol]

Not so fast, my friend.

Summary: A joint study by the Harvard University Business School and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill proved that the RIAA’s argument is not as strong as they would like. Harvard professor Felix Oberholzer-Gee’s results showed that it took 5,000 downloads for the sale of an album to be reduced by one copy. In addition to this startling discovery came an even bigger one: when it came to popular artists, record sales actually improved from downloading music – sales increased by one copy for every 150 downloads.

Interview: Music Downloads: Pirates—or Customers? — HBS Working Knowledge
The study: http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/FileSharing_March2004.pdf

Good! The study I yanked up showed a small decrease -- much less than the industry was claiming.

 

[xechnao]

You mean track record that is typically colored by myths and rumors? I remember the outrage by some fans that 4E was supposedly outright denied until shortly before the new edition, when further investigation always showed that the actual comments never said that. They never did say outright they were planning or 4E, and they said what they would not do if there was ever a 4E...

Yes, I get it. I guess it's pointless... Thank god that I am not in marketing or public relations...

Mmm? You are not helping it with this post, especially the last sentence which seems so ironic. You are a veteran of enworld, you cant deny you are aware of what happened with the GSL, DDI etch. I get it that your point was that the fans usually exaggerate but that last sentence condemns this post to what it tries to defend against.

 

[roguerouge]

Yes, and note that the big players benefitted overall from downloading, if at all, while the smaller labels were hurt, if at all. Conclusions must be necessarily tentative from a single study, after all. And the effect is statistically indistinguishable from zero, according to the study.

As far as the 2000-2002 period, you have to remember little things like the internet bubble bursting, the 9/11 effect on the economy, and the fact that the RIAA demographics were trending downwards as there was a bit of a baby bust due to declining birth rates in the 1980s and 1990s.