D&D 4E Gencon and 4E

[Numion]

I'm don't have anything against any possible 4E. I didn't even buy 3.5E, because it seemed to offer little since I already got 3.0E. It is better than 3.0E, but not by a wide margin .. not by a 90 € margin anyway.

If 4E is much better than 3E I'll buy it whether it comes out next year or in 10 years.

I skip editions anyway, so I won't be buying anything til 5e.

Heh. Just like the way I 'skipped' OD&D.

They've been following you, and now they know your secret .. hence, the next edition will be 5E, and you'll buy it.

 

[delericho]

Seriously, I'm buying it as soon as it comes out and so are you. Don't lie - you know you are

Yep, I'll buy it. I'll even play it. Doesn't mean I won't complain about it, though.

Also, each time a new edition comes out, I swear this time I'm going to cut right back on buying supplements. One of these days, I might even succeed.

When will 4e come out? I have no idea, but I think I'll go for 2008 as my prediction. A prediction I make with no evidence whatsoever, you understand.

 

[Rasyr]

I must have missed that post, but if WotC is thinking of a new edition, Mike Mearls would be a good man to have on the team. (Mind you, I tend to be a bit skeptical about 4E coming out soon as I have seen little evidence of this.

There was no evidence of 3.5 either until approximately 10 months before it was released. IF 4E is coming, I would not expect much more than that amount of notice (thus you would have a little over a year before it is announced if it is to be released in 2007).

However, if we banned speculation about future products, the boards would have far fewer threads.) If this speculation is correct, I hope that WotC would at least have extensive playtesting. However, I fear that might be some resistance to a new edition in the next few years. Also, it might be possible to bring back some former WotC employees for such a big project.

These boards are not the only place that speculation takes place....

Rasyr, thanks for the information! So, what do you think are some of the reasons for WotC to create a new edition and what changes would you like to see to the rules?

Motivation? I think that any new edition will be financially motivated first and foremost. I feel that Hasbro will come down from on high and say "your revenue is slipping, bring it back up". And the surest way of doing that will be a new edition.

What I would like to see? No 4th Edition until 2010 or later. However, I think it will come much sooner than that. My own predictions in this regard had 2006 or 2008 as possible dates (using simple logic on observed occurances and a little extrapolation. If they moved to the 3-4 year development cycle then 2006 (3.0 in 2000, 3.5 in 2003, 4.0 in 2006). If they kept with the original 5 year cycle (3.5 was supposed to come out THIS year, but it got moved ahead 2 years for some reason), then 2008 is a more likely date. The funny thing is that this thread started the same day that I saw speculation elsewhere saying 2007 - but for different reasons.

What I would like to see as far as the rules doesn't really matter. Though if I had to give my preferences, I would say more flexibility in character creation, where I don't have to plan out a character x number of levels in advance. Combat and magic use as skills rather than class features. More skill points overall - and have then be based upon either a fixed number OR something other than class (which currently drives you to playing certain archetypes).

Do I think that this will happen? Not a chance. Personally, I think that 4E will be MORE minis oriented. Possibly making the required. Hasbro bought WotC cause of Pokemon and Magic - collectible card games. CCG's use a cyclic business model, where you put out a main release every few years with a couple of minor releases between. Look at 3.0 to 3.5 and you can see something along the same lines happening here.

Add to this WotC not releasing 4E under the OGL (WotC's current in-house lawyers do not like the OGL), and instead of WotC having a smaller slice of a larger pie, they will reduce the size of the pie and keep it mostly to themselves. One thing that you have to realize is that whle 3.5 may not be able to be removed from under the OGL, the d20 logo is a different beast altogether, and it can be taken away. IIRC, there is a grace period for companies to sell through stock, and then the logo must be obfuscated, OR the product must be destroyed, and the choice of which to do is up to WotC, not the third party company. Destruction of stock could, and would most likely end up killing a lot of companies just like the move to 3.5 did.

IMO, that move from 3.0 to 3.5 showed WotC that gamers will go with the D&D brand. Companies could have continued to produce 3.0 and even done their own versions of it (like several are starting to do now with 3.5).

This brings up another point to be considered. Other companies are moving away from the core of the SRD and producing their own versions (C&C, Arcana Evolved, True20, Mongoose's Pocket series, Grim Tales, etc.). This has the effect of splitting the player base. So the "pie" I mentioned earlier is already shrinking as others begin making their own pies (look at some of the D&D vs. C&C threads....). This can only hasten the move to 4E since 4E would only cause a split player base to begin with, since it is already happening, it would work to WotC's advantage to release 4E before these splits become too large.

I guess I am what you would call a "pessimistic optimist". While I hope for the best, I expect the worst, thus I am not disappointed, and can be pleasantly surprised when I discover that I am wrong.

Well, you made me ramble on for a bit, so I guess I better stop now...

 

[Taren Nighteyes]

DND is not Coke!

4th edition will be released in 2008. It will be reformulated to be more like White Wolf's Storyteller system. D&D fans will be outraged. The outcry will be so great that WOTC will remove 4e from the shelves and replace it with 3.5, rebranded Dungeons & Dragons Classic.

Well, hopefully we've all learned from the mistakes of the soft drink giant!

Taren Nighteyes

 

[atom crash]

Well, hopefully we've all learned from the mistakes of the soft drink giant!

Actually, the conspiracy theory is that it wasn't a mistake but rather a carefully crafted marketing maneuver to re-introduce the same old product as an exciting new product with a sparkly new name. You see, consumers in general love buying things that are a "classic."

 

[William Ronald]

Motivation? I think that any new edition will be financially motivated first and foremost. I feel that Hasbro will come down from on high and say "your revenue is slipping, bring it back up". And the surest way of doing that will be a new edition.

What I would like to see? No 4th Edition until 2010 or later. However, I think it will come much sooner than that. My own predictions in this regard had 2006 or 2008 as possible dates (using simple logic on observed occurances and a little extrapolation. If they moved to the 3-4 year development cycle then 2006 (3.0 in 2000, 3.5 in 2003, 4.0 in 2006). If they kept with the original 5 year cycle (3.5 was supposed to come out THIS year, but it got moved ahead 2 years for some reason), then 2008 is a more likely date. The funny thing is that this thread started the same day that I saw speculation elsewhere saying 2007 - but for different reasons.

Well, speculation about new editions and products probably takes up a good chunk of what takes place on all RPG message boards.

I would hope that the primary motivation for a new editionw ould not be financial reasons, although I agree that WotC needs toi be profitable. Hasbro is in the driver's seat, so we will have to see what they want for WotC or if they decide to sell the division. I think one thing that we sometimes forget on message boards that WotC, Malhavoc Press, Green Ronin, and the other publishers are businesses.

So, I would hope that a desire for better rules would be the primary motivation for a new edition. It is perhaps a naive hope, but I would like to think that WotC realizes that understanding their customers is what has kept them from avoiding the fate of TSR. So, I suspect that we may have a wait on a new edition until such time that WotC thinks they can justify it to the majority of their customers. (This is an argument that might work for WotC in presenting a case against a release in the next two years to Hasbro. After all, I think Hasbro also has suceeded in large part by understanding their markets -- and responding appropriately.) As for rules, I would perhaps like to see somewhat less of a reliance on magic items, more flexibility in character creation and design, and good electronic support. I do not have a problem with the current magic system, but I have also seen good qualities in other magic systems such as in Arcana Unearthed/Arcana Evolved.

So, Rasyr, I am glad I did get you to ramble on a little as you have some interesting insights.

While I would be willing to wait several years for a new edition, I think that there may be some resistance to releasing a new edition after only3 years of 3.5. Additionally, from looking at this thread, it sounds that gamers would like to have some playtesting and a good quality product.

As for the 40th anniversary in 2007, I hope that WotC and all the companies at Gen Con will make it one to remember. Just think back 40 years when Gen Con was just a small group of wargamers in Wisconsin. The gaming industry and our hobby has come along way. (If you had told people at the first Gen Con where the state of the RPG industry would be in 2005, including internet gaming, they would have thought you were joking.) So, Rasyr, I guess I remain an "pessimistic optimist" as I hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

 

[shadow]

I do not see the need for 4E at the present time. I think 3.5 is working quite well.

Really? That's what the majority of people were saying when 3e came out, but less than three years later 3.5e came out.

For some time I've figured WotC would use unleash D&D 4.0 in 2007 but I have changed my mind. I don't think they will do it this early. There is just far too much negative reaction anytime the mere CONCEPT of 4.0 is brought up.

If you remember there was similar outcry against 3.5e on the message boards when it was announced. People were vehemently proclaiming that Wizards was an evil money grubbing corporation for planning a "new edition" so soon. (In fact the term 3.$e for 3.5e became briefly popular.) In the end 3.5 proved wildly popular, faring even better in sales than the initial 3.0 release (so I've been told).

The fact is that Wizards bases their releases on marketing research, not on the outcry produced on message boards. Marketing research has shown that gamers will tend to buy the latest editions to stay current. (I don't know any gamers still playing 3.0e. Most gamers that I know proudly exclaim that they 3.0 is "so broken", "out of date" and "unbalanced", and that 3.5 is "current", "up to date", and "the best edition yet".)

Moreover, Wizards has stated that they consider D&D a living game. Based on similar rhetoric from other companies I take this to mean that there will be a new edition (or at least an "upgrade") every few years. I believe that 4e will be announced in a few years (perhaps even later this year). Sure there will be the inevitable protest, but in the end most gamers will buy the books to stay current.

 

[kenobi65]

Actually, the conspiracy theory is that it wasn't a mistake but rather a carefully crafted marketing maneuver to re-introduce the same old product as an exciting new product with a sparkly new name. You see, consumers in general love buying things that are a "classic."

Too many people lost their jobs over that one for me to believe that it was planned all along.

 

[romp]

Add to this WotC not releasing 4E under the OGL (WotC's current in-house lawyers do not like the OGL), and instead of WotC having a smaller slice of a larger pie, they will reduce the size of the pie and keep it mostly to themselves. One thing that you have to realize is that whle 3.5 may not be able to be removed from under the OGL, the d20 logo is a different beast altogether, and it can be taken away. IIRC, there is a grace period for companies to sell through stock, and then the logo must be obfuscated, OR the product must be destroyed, and the choice of which to do is up to WotC, not the third party company. Destruction of stock could, and would most likely end up killing a lot of companies just like the move to 3.5 did.

Can I ask how you know that WotC's current lawyers do not like the OGL? I am not being snarky, just asking where you picked up that bit?

I think it is far too late for the provebial cat to be put back in the bag, in other words rescinding the OGL means nothing, i.e. Malhavoc does not have to destroy any copies of AU or Green Ronin have destroy any extant stock of M&M. Rescinding the d20 logo does have that effect on books using the logo.

How would not putting 4e under the d20/OGL work, does that mean that WotC is forced to stray away from the STR,DEX,CON,INT,WIS,CHR system that is familiar but also under the OGL?

 

[The Human Target]

How is ti that every thread that happens to have a 4 and an E in it turns into this pit of chaos?