Uzzy said:
I see it as a short term decision, that's all. It's very unlikely that Green Ronin, or other big 3rd party companies will keep supporting 3rd edition only in their products beyond 2009, unless 4th Edition seriously tanks. In which case the hobby has much more serious things to worry about.
I think this is seriously unlikely, unless WotC has forgotten everything they learned while Ryan Dancey worked there.
Unlike most other companies in the gaming business, Wizards of the Coast is able to have a true marketing department, conduct market research, and actually get real feedback from a truly random sample of their customers. It is patently absurd to assume they haven't been doing this as they go through the design process for Fourth Edition.
By contrast, in the old days of TSR, the designers relied on their "gut instincts" rather than actual consumer feedback. Dancey's old articles on the WotC takeover of D&D are very illuminating. TSR didn't know anything about its customers or what they wanted out of an RPG. When WotC took over, they asked a lot of questions of their customers, and got the answers,
many of which ran counter to their gut instincts. Third Edition was designed in response to all that feedback.
It is my firm hope, and belief, that WotC is going through the same process with 4e. By contrast, many of the smaller d20 companies derive their strategy from their 'gut instincts.' Which is fine if you're serving a market niche, but not necessarily if you're trying to serve the majority.
One of the axioms I remember from my MBA marketing classes is this: "If you think you know what the average consumer wants,
you're probably wrong."
Finding that out is the point of market research and gathering customer feedback. And I trust Wizards of the Coast to be professional enough (and care about success enough) to actually do that. I highly doubt they're designing the game in a bubble to the degree that some people seem to think.
I think a lot of people don't understand that axiom. They seem to think that because what WotC is doing runs counter to what they want (which they
assume the majority also wants) that WotC is therefore 'making a mistake.' But does anyone honestly think WotC would repeat TSR's mistake? Especially since they know how to avoid it?
Yes, companies can make mistakes. But they usually only do so because they're not listening to their customers, something the D&D designers should certainly know to be careful of.