Filcher said:
Agreed. The ratio of "worth" (decreasing the longer WotC takes to hand over the GSL) to "expense" (fixed at $5,000 for early adopters) is getting worse with each day. What's the point of forking over 5k to be an early adopter if you don't have the time get a quality product out in time for Gen Con?
WotC wanted to raise the quality standards for the first wave of 3rd party releases, but it is decreasing the chances for this with each passing week.
Baseless speculation -- I think WOTC was blindsided by the "Use any version" clause of the OGL, quickly decided to just call it a new license to get around THAT, and then realized that a new license which denies access to existing OGC is of less use to publishers. At the very least, the 3x SRD would need to be published under the GSL so that works which derive from it can be upgraded to 4e without massive rewrites of mostly boilerplate text. (I suspect a lot of publisher's 4e plans will be to churn out their best 3x products in bright&shiny 4e editions, as well as capitalize on the splatbook gap.) This also open up problems, since, if the 3x SRD is placed under the GSL, it means publishers can easily produce 'dual stat' products with a 4e brand and 3x content. Oy. It's very dubious they would have made the announcement without them being ready with what they THOUGHT was a valid license to show prospective developers; I can only conclude something has gone wrong.
WOTC might go for a variant of the "Gentleman's Agreement" which was used while the origial OGL was being finalized. They might say, for example, "We will never place 3x under the GSL, but we won't sue you for 'upgrading' old material to 4e, even if it includes portions of copyrighted text from the 3x SRD. However, you cannot use that text in new material or advertise any kind of compatibility with 3x."
Really, the old OGL/STL split was the best solution; a 4e STL *with marketing support* would probably have satisfied WOTCs needs. For example, suppose that adhering to the STL got you space on DDI to cross-promote your books? Or that WOTC worked to help sell "4e Brand" products as superior/more worth buying? The main reason that OGL-only books took off was that there was no value in the D20 logo to make it worth jumping through the hoops, and the vague "community standards" clause undoubtedly scared some publishers.
Lastly, you can only sell a PHB to one person once. Fearing "lost sales" due to OGL-only games is probably silly; I'm willing to bet only a very small number of gamers bought M&M or True 20 who did not also own a PHB. Likewise, the use of the SRD as a PHB substitute, instead of aid, is pretty small; the 4e books will be available on file-sharing services within 0.01 seconds of publication, and anyone inclined to steal rather than buy will do so.