I don't understand why you feel compelled to disprove a point I've made excluding the hit ratio (which involves the crit ratio as well) by forcing the hit ratio argument against it...
Did I even once speak about to hit? never. The only time i did, it was to exclude GWM from the list specifically because it was going to call for a "to hit ratio" consideration inside an argument that was purposefully excluding it.
I was strictly speaking about damage ratio, not hit ratio, because otherwise you had to mitigate ALL the results by introducing hit bonus, proficiency bonus and the 5% crit ratio and I would rather have not, because to prove my point I didn't have to!
I was also agreeing with you "to a certain extent" . If you forgot to read the whole argument, I was, in facts, agreeing with you when you said that TWF was reliable at lower levels IF you were NOT introducing feats. As soon as you'd introduce feats, by - for instance - rolling human, even at levels 1-3 TWF would feel inadequate.
I can agree with you to a certain extent. Let me elaborate.
[snip]
At levels 1-3 you don't have chances to exploit bonus attacks unless you can put your hands on a feat and use a particular fighting style.
[snip]
So I can agree with you up to this point, but since we're filthy power players, let's introduce a single feat! we're humans after all :v
SO if you don't like feats at levels 1-3 simply disregard everything i've said after "let's introduce a feat" and that's it... why keep arguing?
If you want to create a baseline, you
must disregard everything that has no recurrence. The functional tree is really simple: "can I see this behaviour happening the 100% of times"? YES/NO
YES: it can be included to compile a baseline
NO: it can not be included to compile a baseline
cleave? will happen all the times? no! NOT in the baseline!
reroll 1 and 2? it will happen all the times? yes! in the baseline!
Hunter's mark? will be cast 12 encounters out of 12? of course not, silly, you can cast it at best 4 times per day! NOT in the baseline!
Action surge? NOT in the baseline.
and so forth.
"yes but it will happen 1 out of 20 times" it's cool, but it is NOT to be included in a baseline.
It would be like attempting to find a lowest common denominator by including certain exceptions... would that make sense? nope.
After you've created a damage ratio, then you can create a mitigated damage ratio by introducing the hit and crit ratios as well, if you fancy doing that. But that's another story.