D&D 5E GWF vs. TWF Fighting styles

TWF has more consistent damage be cause of the law of average.
google said:
The law of averages is a layman's term for a belief that the statistical distribution of outcomes among members of a small sample must reflect the distribution of outcomes across the population as a whole.
Every statistical distrubtion shows that TWF loses. Now if you're trying to make an argument for Overkill being a thing for GWM then there is some argument.

However Polearm trumps this as it has more attacks than TWF.
 

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TWF has more consistent damage be cause of the law of average. And at level 15 gwf (3d12+15) does consistently more damage than twf (4d6+20)

Improving crit on twf/gwf results in the same increase to DPR, twf only comes ahead if it has riders such as smite.

When it's 1 attack vs 2, the consistency is definitely there. 2 vs 3, you're going to feel it less. It's all but gone at 3 vs 4.

If feats are in the equation, pole arm master does the same thing, and with reach and a higher mainhand damage.

As for "just do what you think is cool": would anyone take this feat:

Super Cool
You're super cool.
Benefit: You're cool.

I'm being hyperbolic, but all options should be comparable. The ability to split damage is a plus for twfing, but that falls away with Extra Attack.
 


The ability to split damage is a plus for twfing, but that falls away with Extra Attack.
Yeah, extra attack weakens it and picking a feat kills it. As soon as you pick DW someone else will pick PM or GWM and gain the same split damage on bonus action.

Well, at least for fighter. Hunter has some features to compensate. Too lazy to look at Kryx worksheet.
 

ehm nope.

when you roll a 1 or a two you can reroll BUT you must keep the second value.
This means that you must also average the 1 and the 2 with the die's average.
1d4 becomes ((1+2.5)/2+(2+2.5)/2+3+4)/4
1d6 becomes ((1+3.5)/2+(2+3.5)/2+3+4+5+6)/6
1d8 becomes ((1+4.5)/2+(2+4.5)/2+3+4+5+6+7+8)/8
What?

When you roll a 1 or a 2 you can reroll and must keep the second value. That means it's replaced, and therefore couldn't possibly influence the formula. Now, you can still roll a 1 or a 2 on the second roll, but that's already included in the die's average.
1d4 becomes (2.5 + 2.5 + 3 + 4)/4 = 3
1d6 becomes (3.5 + 3.5 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/6 = 4 1/6
1d8 becomes (4.5 + 4.5 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8)/8 = 5.25
1d10 becomes (5.5 + 5.5 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10)/10 = 6.3

You are mistaken.
Dual Wielder provides +1 AC, removes the mandatory "light" quality to use TWF and allows you to sheathe/unsheathe both weapons at the same time. Second and third are quite compelling, especially the second one, if you wanna perform properly as a dual wielder.
IF you stack dex with a feat, you'd better do so when you have an odd value and need to even it :)
Improving your Dex gives you +1 AC and +1 damage (about the equivalent of replacing a light weapon with a bigger one-handed weapon, although it is slightly weaker in that it doesn't get to add that damage again on crits), and you also get +1 to hit and +1 to everything else Dex improves.
The only thing you don't get is the ability to draw your weapons at the same time, which probably doesn't come up all that often. If you're at all prepared for combat, you've probably already got at least one drawn. If you're surprised in a situation where you didn't already have a weapon out, you miss one off-hand attack in the first round, which is a disadvantage to the style but not devastating.


GWM provides you the formerly known as Cleave feature, which is purely situational. When you theorycraft, you'd better stick to consistent mechanics :D
Some things are easier to quantify than others, but if you just ignore those things when doing comparisons they should fall behind the easily quantifiable, because it has other benefits you're not, well, accounting for.
 

The numbers you just outlined assumes half the time you roll a 1 and half the time you roll a 2.5 (for the d4 example)- that's entirely different.
The numbers I posted are the commonly accepted numbers posted everywhere. They have been validated by many people on many forums - they are correct.
let's assume yours are correct for the sake of the argument, in what way they should disprove my theory? I'm missing the point.

+1 Dex provides +1 AC as well. The only difference is +1 damage on two weapons vs +1 hit and damage on main hand and +1 hit on offhand. +2 dex is better than Dual Wielder for DPR.
Drawing weapons doesn't matter for DPR - one can simply have weapons out all the time (besides a town). Plus a Ranger will cast Hunter's Mark on the first round anyways.
Hunter's Mark is situational since it's not a cantrip.
+2 dex is overall better, mechanics wise, yes! But this is not the point at hand.
I'm speaking about Feats because we were speaking about a level 1-3 character and the only way to introduce a feat in that context is by rolling as human. As a human you get +1 on two stats and a feat OR +2 in all stats, and since there are no feats that provide you with more than +1 on a stat, you can't go over 17 even if you try, implying you're using the standard statistics builder (the formally known as '15 15 15 8 8 8 set' :v ).

GWM is dependent on several things sure. But that doesn't matter. Even without the cleave part GWM is 93-95% of TWF 1-4. From 4-20 it scales from 115%-130%. GWM wins even if you ignore that "theorycraft" feature.
I know GWM is better, I told you so... roughly 68% times better if you want the odds. What I told also was that it gets disqualified because it handles a to hit ratio I wasn't going to contemplate in my explanation, but it was still mentioned because it's awesomely better.
GFW provides BAs? Yes! Should you contemplate it in your statistics? no! because it's a situational event, not something you will bring to the table all the times.


Good, you're not trying craziness. The option you've presented however only does 1 more damage than normal Polearm. Not worth the 1 level dip imo.
no it's not. It was just for the sake of the argument :D
A paladin could go for magic initiate (druid) to get shillelagh to better her dps output, but that's not the end of it: I personally would go for guidance and goodberry (goodberry abuse? yes please) but thorn whip is a sweet control cantrip too!
Level dip, though, it's definitely a big no-no :)

And it should be badass - at least a competitive option.
I couldn't agree more but many don't even consider the implications of what *we* consider a "competitive option"... they simply go with their guts, something I've long forgotten how to do. :)

Some things are easier to quantify than others, but if you just ignore those things when doing comparisons they should fall behind the easily quantifiable, because it has other benefits you're not, well, accounting for.


Cleave is *not* easy to quantify. you can't contemplate that it has a constant upkeep by simply watching the criteria it has: you must fall someone to 0hp or less and have someone else in reach to discharge a melee weapon strike as a BA.
you can't make any assessment that involves the use of cleave as a reliable source of dpr, it's simply too inconsistent :)
 
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I don't know what theory you are speaking of. That TWF is somehow more "versatile"? It simply isn't. It has 1 more attack than GWM, sure, but not in comparison to Polearm.

Again, my model is unconcerned with min-maxing and I do not assume Vumans. Nor do I allow them. 1-3 assumes no feats.

I know GWM is better, I told you so... roughly 68% times better
GWM is 168% of TWF? Not by my numbers. At 20 when TWF is the worst it's 143%. At other levels it ranged from 120-135%

GFW provides BAs? Yes! Should you contemplate it in your statistics? no! because it's a situational event, not something you will bring to the table all the times.
Well lets just go ahead and ignore all of D&D because nearly everything has a chance to happen. Lets ignore the chance to prone an enemy, because, why not? Lets ignore sneak attack, because rogues suck. Lets ignore the complication of Offhand + Hunter's Mark competing for Bonus action.

Or.. instead... we could model things that have a chance to happen to the best of our ability to do so.
 

Cleave is *not* easy to quantify. you can't contemplate that it has a constant upkeep by simply watching the criteria it has: you must fall someone to 0hp or less and have someone else in reach to discharge a melee weapon strike as a BA.
you can't make any assessment that involves the use of cleave as a reliable source of dpr, it's simply too inconsistent :)

I didn't say it's easy to quantify. I said ignoring it because it's more difficult to quantify means your analysis will undervalue it.
Besides, it also triggers on a crit and that's easy enough to quantify. It happens on 5% of attacks.

The target does not need to be within reach, but you do need to be able to get to it. That's always true with TWF, though.
 

Cleave is *not* easy to quantify. you can't contemplate that it has a constant upkeep by simply watching the criteria it has: you must fall someone to 0hp or less and have someone else in reach to discharge a melee weapon strike as a BA.
you can't make any assessment that involves the use of cleave as a reliable source of dpr, it's simply too inconsistent :)
It's not difficult. First you calculate the total chance to crit (typically 5, 9.75, 14.26, 18.55, etc). You then add in the chance to kill a creature.

To calculate the chance to kill a creature you compare your total DPR (besides the cleave part) to the average HP for that CR.
For example the average HP of a CR 10 creature is 213 (AVERAGE(206, 220)). A GWM fighter at 10 does 19.5 dpr. 19.5/213 = 11%. You can't add them directly as they cross over slightly. The formula I use is "=1-((1-crit chance)*(1-kill chance))". That is 20% in this case.

And that is assuming you are the only one dealing damage. If you assume all allies are doing damage it could go either way as you could be kill stealing or they could.
 

I don't understand why you feel compelled to disprove a point I've made excluding the hit ratio (which involves the crit ratio as well) by forcing the hit ratio argument against it...

Did I even once speak about to hit? never. The only time i did, it was to exclude GWM from the list specifically because it was going to call for a "to hit ratio" consideration inside an argument that was purposefully excluding it.

I was strictly speaking about damage ratio, not hit ratio, because otherwise you had to mitigate ALL the results by introducing hit bonus, proficiency bonus and the 5% crit ratio and I would rather have not, because to prove my point I didn't have to!

I was also agreeing with you "to a certain extent" . If you forgot to read the whole argument, I was, in facts, agreeing with you when you said that TWF was reliable at lower levels IF you were NOT introducing feats. As soon as you'd introduce feats, by - for instance - rolling human, even at levels 1-3 TWF would feel inadequate.

I can agree with you to a certain extent. Let me elaborate.
[snip]
At levels 1-3 you don't have chances to exploit bonus attacks unless you can put your hands on a feat and use a particular fighting style.
[snip]
So I can agree with you up to this point, but since we're filthy power players, let's introduce a single feat! we're humans after all :v

SO if you don't like feats at levels 1-3 simply disregard everything i've said after "let's introduce a feat" and that's it... why keep arguing?

If you want to create a baseline, you must disregard everything that has no recurrence. The functional tree is really simple: "can I see this behaviour happening the 100% of times"? YES/NO
YES: it can be included to compile a baseline
NO: it can not be included to compile a baseline

cleave? will happen all the times? no! NOT in the baseline!
reroll 1 and 2? it will happen all the times? yes! in the baseline!
Hunter's mark? will be cast 12 encounters out of 12? of course not, silly, you can cast it at best 4 times per day! NOT in the baseline!
Action surge? NOT in the baseline.

and so forth.

"yes but it will happen 1 out of 20 times" it's cool, but it is NOT to be included in a baseline.
It would be like attempting to find a lowest common denominator by including certain exceptions... would that make sense? nope.

After you've created a damage ratio, then you can create a mitigated damage ratio by introducing the hit and crit ratios as well, if you fancy doing that. But that's another story.
 

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