HD-DVD is Dead (was: First Signs of Blu-Ray Dominance)

[Banshee16]

You own this, yes? It is possible you could bring it over to my place of residence? (Sorry, I've got part of my brain working on the accent/diction I'm going to use for my character in shil's new campaign).

I have a "legit" question about that....I don't care about HDDVD or Blu-Ray for these purposes. When getting older movies into high-def format, does the high-def actually improve the picture? I've got DVD copies of Excalibur and Blade Runner.....but both movies are really grainy, with poor image quality. Would getting an HDDVD (or Blu-Ray) version of these movies really make a difference? Are they actually remastered? Or am I just getting more pixels of a poor image?

Banshee

 

[Rackhir]

Maybe Blu-Ray is winning because they've got more players out there

Yes, this is exactly the point. Because of the PS3s Blu-Ray has a massive edge in players and irregardless of what the "attach" rate is, the volume of sales is much higher (on average 2 to 1) vs HD-DVD.

but HDDVD generates more sales *per* owner.

While HD-DVDs are somewhat less expensive to make than Blu-Ray disks, the costs of mastering or creating the source materials are equal. In fact the same "master" is generally used for creating both the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray versions, when you have the same movie released in both formats. So it doesn't really matter how many disks an individual buys, when you are selling half the total numbers and thus spreading your fixed costs over half the number of disks. These attach rate figures are basically an attempt by the HD-DVD camp to slice up the data in a way that makes their situation look better.

I have a "legit" question about that....I don't care about HDDVD or Blu-Ray for these purposes. When getting older movies into high-def format, does the high-def actually improve the picture? I've got DVD copies of Excalibur and Blade Runner.....but both movies are really grainy, with poor image quality. Would getting an HDDVD (or Blu-Ray) version of these movies really make a difference? Are they actually remastered? Or am I just getting more pixels of a poor image?

It's like anything else, it depends on the effort put into it. The original Blu-Ray release of the "Fifth Element" was only barely better than the previous DVD release. It was so bad that they actually gave free replacement disks to people, when they released a newer version where they remastered it properly. Just google blu-ray and fifth element picture quality to get some comparison shots. It's night and day.

I'm assuming you have the older Blade Runner DVD release? From what I can tell from Amazon reviews, the 1997 DVD release had very poor picture quality, but I did not own that so I can't comment on it directly.

For the current release, it was extensively remastered, cleaned up and prepared with the high def formats in mind (It came out just before christmas, IIRC) and offers basically every cut of the movie that's ever been released. Along with all the extras ever created. This release looks absolutely pristine on my setup. They even went back and reshot some sequences (such as the Snake Lady running through the glass panes) where the special effects weren't up to snuff, even back in 1982. I haven't sat through the entire movie yet, but what I did see was stunning. It seems unlikely that the picture quality would be as much worse on the DVD version of this release as what you are describing, but I can't rule it out.

Interestingly, Paramount has apparently denied rumours that it's planning on switching sides (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aZzib5lwheBc). That would lead to the suspicion that Dreamworks remains with HDDVD as well. If Universal also stays, then the war ain't over.

Banshee

Eh. So it goes. I think everyone would be better off the sooner the format war ends.

 

[Banshee16]

Eh. So it goes. I think everyone would be better off the sooner the format war ends.

It would be nice if they could just merge the two, and be done with it.

Not sure if that's possible without screwing everyone who's already bought a player.

Both formats may end up getting killed by downloadable content anyways. Maybe Microsoft keeps HDDVD for mass storage on computers, and then kills Blu-Ray by putting its efforts into pushing downloadable high-def content....which is kind of what they're pushing with things liek the XBox 360 being upgraded to serve as a set-top box in Britain, and signing deals for MGM and Disney to start selling/renting high-def content through the Live Marketplace. And Apple's getting into the game too, by starting to provide movies through the iTunes store.

Maybe that's part of the "plan". Making Sony kill itself fighting the HDDVD vs. Blu-Ray war, and then turn around and hit them with a heavy push on downloadable content. Microsoft is far more capable of absorbing losses than Sony can...

Banshee

 

[John Crichton]

Interestingly, Paramount has apparently denied rumours that it's planning on switching sides (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aZzib5lwheBc). That would lead to the suspicion that Dreamworks remains with HDDVD as well. If Universal also stays, then the war ain't over.

That's been their stance for a while. WB was firmly in the middle for a while until the shocking news last Friday about signing the exclusivity deal to produce BR only. So, unless they have something in place that holds them to HD-DVD for X amount of time it really only a matter of time. If only two major studios are producing for a format, that's not enough to keep it alive.

 

[John Crichton]

It would be nice if they could just merge the two, and be done with it.

Not sure if that's possible without screwing everyone who's already bought a player.

Both formats may end up getting killed by downloadable content anyways. Maybe Microsoft keeps HDDVD for mass storage on computers, and then kills Blu-Ray by putting its efforts into pushing downloadable high-def content....which is kind of what they're pushing with things liek the XBox 360 being upgraded to serve as a set-top box in Britain, and signing deals for MGM and Disney to start selling/renting high-def content through the Live Marketplace. And Apple's getting into the game too, by starting to provide movies through the iTunes store.

Maybe that's part of the "plan". Making Sony kill itself fighting the HDDVD vs. Blu-Ray war, and then turn around and hit them with a heavy push on downloadable content. Microsoft is far more capable of absorbing losses than Sony can...

Banshee

I can't get behind DL content killing discs anytime soon. There is still a huge portion of the population not willing to spend money on something they don't own or can't hold in their hand.

 

[Vocenoctum]

Both formats may end up getting killed by downloadable content anyways. Maybe Microsoft keeps HDDVD for mass storage on computers, and then kills Blu-Ray by putting its efforts into pushing downloadable high-def content....

It's odd, I always figured the problem would be more of "I want content I can keep" being the primary reason for hard copies. In a discussion on another forum, folks were in favor of a winner (either way), simply so they could only have one player, et cetera.

Most of them said they just Netflix anyway, and rarely buy even DVD's now. So, I wonder if the digital stuff is more about selection, rather than about "keeping" the movie.

 

[Arnwyn]

I can't get behind DL content killing discs anytime soon. There is still a huge portion of the population not willing to spend money on something they don't own or can't hold in their hand.

I agree. This won't be happening for quite some time.

Besides - I can zip to the video store and return a disc (likely on the way to/from the office) in a fraction of the time it takes to download a HD movie - without wasting HDD space, too.

 

[Rackhir]

Maybe that's part of the "plan". Making Sony kill itself fighting the HDDVD vs. Blu-Ray war, and then turn around and hit them with a heavy push on downloadable content. Microsoft is far more capable of absorbing losses than Sony can...

Banshee

While I'm sure eventually downloads will kill off disk formats eventually, IF they can settle the format wars before a strong candidate/service emerges. I think they can get at least 10 yrs out of the disk format.

The major bar to any sort of download service killing media based formats is less the delivery than the security. The MPAA and the studios have a completely paranoid fetish about being able to maintain complete control over the content and if they have any choice in the matter will completely eliminate things like "fair use", with the ultimate goal of extracting money from people any time their product is viewed/used in any shape, format or machine.

That their concerns about downloads are pointless, since the current technology is essentially already permitting all the things they are afraid of with downloads (movie exchanges over the internet, movie copying, pirated copies, etc..), has done nothing to disuade them from such stupid and pointless demands as insisting that downloaded movies cost the same as a DVD, with no extras like commentary tracks or "making of" documentaries, while being locked to individual machines with no flexibility in transfers or viewing. If anyone thinks I'm kidding, just google some info on the Wal-mart download service that was recently shuttered.

With these kinds of restrictions and pricing it's really not surprising that all of the download services have gone over like lead balloons and generally failled horribly. None of them are going to succeed until Hollywood and the content providers recognize that they are going to have to charge less, make the DRM less draconian and increase, rather than decreease the flexibility of use. What they seem to have missed completely about iTune's success with music was that it struck a reasonable balance with cost, ease of use and flexibility, while the DRM was basically transparent to the users.

 

[Orius]

I can't get behind DL content killing discs anytime soon. There is still a huge portion of the population not willing to spend money on something they don't own or can't hold in their hand.

I agree. I'd rather actually buy a disc than download a video if I'm paying the money for it. To me, the disc is more durable than DLed content, so it's worth more. Plus if the studios through in some decent extras, it's worth the money. I've noticed a lot of recent DVDs have been getting disappointing on content. Less commentary, no trailers (I like watching the trailers!), and loading down ads for other movies. I really hate that last part, I like buying the DVDs to build up a collection, and previews of movies that I tend to view as crap taints that collection to me.

 

[Glyfair]

Not if you listen to Sony fans I think the reference I read was that Blu-Ray has an attach rate of 0.6, whereas HDDVD is 3, or something like that. But I don't know if the numbers are correct. Maybe Blu-Ray is winning because they've got more players out there, but HDDVD generates more sales *per* owner.

That makes sense. A lot of the Blu-Ray players out there are PS3s. A good percentage of those are game players who may rarely or never use it for anything else. That there are so many PS3s will cut into that stat, and make it appear deceptively low.

The real important figure is that Blue-Ray is selling 2 to 1. The real telling stat is that the ratio stands up for titles out for both formats.

Imagine you wanted to put out an RPG product and had the choice between two systems (let's use AD&D and BD&D for references most here understand). Which would you choose if I told you that you would sell twice as many if you released if for AD&D, but if you released it for BD&D you'd sell it to a higher percentage of those who played BD&D regularly? Of course you'd go with AD&D since the percentage of the audience isn't important, just your total sales.