HD-DVD is Dead (was: First Signs of Blu-Ray Dominance)

[Banshee16]

That makes sense. A lot of the Blu-Ray players out there are PS3s. A good percentage of those are game players who may rarely or never use it for anything else. That there are so many PS3s will cut into that stat, and make it appear deceptively low.

The real important figure is that Blue-Ray is selling 2 to 1. The real telling stat is that the ratio stands up for titles out for both formats.

Imagine you wanted to put out an RPG product and had the choice between two systems (let's use AD&D and BD&D for references most here understand). Which would you choose if I told you that you would sell twice as many if you released if for AD&D, but if you released it for BD&D you'd sell it to a higher percentage of those who played BD&D regularly? Of course you'd go with AD&D since the percentage of the audience isn't important, just your total sales.

You're right....the total numbers *are* important.....but they're related to percentages, and all that can change in time. My understanding is that towards the end of 2007, there was more Blu-Ray, but HDDVD was growing faster. Obviously, if that's the case, eventually it'll overtake Blu-Ray, if the growth rates remained the same.

It's all moot though. HDDVD won't grow if movie producers stop releasing for it. I have been somewhat relieved to see that Paramount/Dreamworks don't seem quite so hot to change as rumours would have it. And Microsoft isn't jumping ship...in fact, they've released a statement which calls into doubt the whole idea that they're going to give up, and make a Blu-Ray player for the XBox.

I was really aggravated by all of this earlier this week, but I've been thinking about it, and well, I can't return my player, because i'm past the 30 days. For $260, I got my player, and 9 free movies. Even at $20/movie, that means I just bought 9 movies, and a player for $80. Several of those movies are ones I wanted anyways. And most importantly, many of the HDDVD discs I have (and many I still want) are dual format. So if HDDVD folded tomorrow, and someone came and took my player away, I just flip the disc over, and play it in my regular DVD player. So there's really no reason not to continue to support the format, until there's a definitive decision.

And I remain convinced that Blu-Ray isn't ready for consumption by the public yet, because they're not necessarily ensuring that their systems are backwards compatible etc.....like with the 1.1 standard upgrade being incompatible with discs produced before the 1.1 standard came out. I'd rather not pay for them to do their product development. I'll wait until they're done before I buy into Blu-Ray.

Banshee

 

[Banshee16]

That's been their stance for a while. WB was firmly in the middle for a while until the shocking news last Friday about signing the exclusivity deal to produce BR only. So, unless they have something in place that holds them to HD-DVD for X amount of time it really only a matter of time. If only two major studios are producing for a format, that's not enough to keep it alive.

Unless Microsoft turns around and steals some companies from the Blu-Ray camp

Interesting times, regardless.

Banshee

 

[Darkwolf71]

My understanding is that towards the end of 2007, there was more Blu-Ray, but HDDVD was growing faster. Obviously, if that's the case, eventually it'll overtake Blu-Ray, if the growth rates remained the same.

I have doubts as to the accuracy of this. For one big reason: If it was still in question and HDDVD was (or even might be) growing faster, why would WB abandon it now? After sitting on the fence for so long, the timing wouldn't make sense unless they had indication the BR had a solid lead.

 

[Rackhir]

And I remain convinced that Blu-Ray isn't ready for consumption by the public yet, because they're not necessarily ensuring that their systems are backwards compatible etc.....like with the 1.1 standard upgrade being incompatible with discs produced before the 1.1 standard came out. I'd rather not pay for them to do their product development. I'll wait until they're done before I buy into Blu-Ray.

This is incorrect. The 1.1 standard players work just fine with older blu-ray disks. Where ever you got this from it's very bad information.

For Blu-Ray PLAYERS that are 1.0 standard and not upgradeable to 1.1 (which admittedly is a good chunk of the early stand alone players) you are going to get some incompatibility with 1.1 spec disks (mostly with the newer PiP features, but some disks probably flat out won't work). But this is hardly a new phenomena, nor is it confined to Blu-Ray.

Of course as mentioned several times, the PS3 is by far the most popular Blu-Ray player and it is trivially upgradeable to the 1.1 spec and I suspect the 2.0 spec as well. Though I have no specific information on this, from what I've seen of the 2.0 spec requirements it should have no problems meeting them.

 

[John Crichton]

Unless Microsoft turns around and steals some companies from the Blu-Ray camp

If they have exclusivity deals, it won't matter. Microsoft isn't a huge player in the format wars. They are more off to the side.

Interesting times, regardless.

Agreed.

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

If they have exclusivity deals, it won't matter. Microsoft isn't a huge player in the format wars. They are more off to the side.

Agreed.

Yeah, MS has even said that, were Blu-Ray to win, seeing a Blu-Ray player for the 360 wouldn't be unlikely at all.

 

[Arnwyn]

You're right....the total numbers *are* important.....but they're related to percentages, and all that can change in time. My understanding is that towards the end of 2007, there was more Blu-Ray, but HDDVD was growing faster. Obviously, if that's the case, eventually it'll overtake Blu-Ray, if the growth rates remained the same.

I suspect Warner Bros have analyzed their own growth trends, and have clearly seen this is not the case.

I highly doubt the above statement is true.

Unless Microsoft turns around and steals some companies from the Blu-Ray camp

Well, this isn't MS vs Sony, so nothing will happen there. And as John Crichton notes, MS is a bit player in this whole thing.

 

[Goldmoon]

I suspect Warner Bros have analyzed their own growth trends, and have clearly seen this is not the case.

I highly doubt the above statement is true.


Well, this isn't MS vs Sony, so nothing will happen there. And as John Crichton notes, MS is a bit player in this whole thing.

True but having released a HD-DVD add on for the 360 theyve got a good reason to help HD-DVD win.

 

[John Crichton]

True but having released a HD-DVD add on for the 360 theyve got a good reason to help HD-DVD win.

I wouldn't count on it. They could just as easily release a BR add-on. That peripheral isn't much of a cog in the MS plan.

 

[Rackhir]

True but having released a HD-DVD add on for the 360 they've got a good reason to help HD-DVD win.

Not so much. If the 360 had shipped with a built in HD-DVD drive and it was the format for all of the games I'd agree. Given that it's a rarely purchased add-on and it's almost certain that no 360 games will ever ship on HD-DVD, it's hardly integral to the success of the 360. Nor do they have any significant commitments/dependences on the computer front.

If HD-DVD vanished from the planet this instance MS wouldn't even notice.