I think the market will essentially split three ways: the vast majority will shift to 2024 5e (either whole-cloth or with some sort of hybrid with 2014); there will be a significant minority of 2014-only holdouts; and there will be "the rest". And while within that grouping there will be a few relative successes, in the grand scheme they will essentially be a rounding error.
(For myself, I backed both "Level Up" and "Tales of the Valiant", but I'm extremely unlikely ever to play either. Instead, both will most likely serve as a toolbox of bits to be incorporated into D&D. Published house rules, if you will. Whether that's 2014 5e, 2024 5e, or indeed if my current campaign turns out to be the end of the road, remains to be seen.)