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How soon do you see warning signs of a TPK?

Usually I don't see character death coming until it happens. My PCs are so powerful and have action points galore and they're always pulling out of situations where it looks like they're going to die, even from my perspective.
 

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I've only experienced a TPK once, but I gotta say that when your characters are level 3, the GM opens the bestiary to Xill and then rolls a d100 to determine how many there are, you're pretty boned.

63 Xill accompanied by a 6th level sorcerer named "David Bowie." The paladin did end up killing the sorcerer (critical mounted charge with his lance) before we were all raped and the xill babies began popping out of our skin.

...that sucked.

-The Beast
 

I'm not avoiding TPKs, personally.
They're part of the game, as they are the ultimate reward of complete failure.

I usually give indications that the potential opposition ahead can be really tough if the PCs don't strategize appropriately. If the PCs ignore the clues, and just go in expecting the fight to be "level appropriate", they'll die. If they deal with the situation with care, avoid it, prepare contingency plans, et cetera, they'll have a chance to live.

Thing is, I wouldn't just throw a completely overwhelming enemy on the PCs without them having the occasion to make a conscious choice on how they want to deal with the situation. Thus, if they are careless, and their characters die, it is plainly their fault. Entirely, and unequivocally. That's a learning experience. That's part of the game.
 

I guess the foreshadowing of the TPK points as much to the cause of the TPK as anything else.

If a coming TPK can be seen before the encounter begins, that's a good sign not to run the encounter (in most cases) as originally conceived.

But far more often, threats of a TPK surface during the encounter itself. Somebody makes a disastrous decision, or a couple of rolls go VERY badly coupled with a couple of enemy attacks that go very well. At lower levels, it ca be as simple as two ranged touch attacks miss -- while two crits go back the other way and the party is suddenly in peril. At lower levels, given the less wiggle room the party has due to reduced hit points, the more easily that luck can be magnified and turn the tide quickly.

I would agree that the faster the potential for an emergent TPK crystallizes before your eyes, the more likely the emerging potential for the TPK was due to unusally BAD luck. It can happen very fast when it's not the DM's fault. When it is the DM's fault? The signs for a TPK tend to be there well before someone rolls a 1 and some foe rolls a 20.

Now that said, for luck to be the REAL culprit, it needs to be more than just one fumble and another well timed critical before you can blame an emerging TPK on plain bad luck. Luck, both good and bad, must be allowed for by any DM. Unusually BAD luck, otoh, is something that no DM can really account for in his or her plans. "Luck happens."
 

The only times I've really seen an absolute warning was when the party was continuously taking damage, while not being able to make much progress on the enemy due to some tactic they couldn't find a way around.

One that comes to mind was my very first 4E adventure when the game was being previewed, and the final monster of the dungeon was a black dragon. The dragon's ability to retreat in and out of clouds of darkness was just something we couldn't overcome - and the dragon's speed and ongoing acid damage made fleeing (through the entire rest of the dungeon) impossible.

However, in many other cases, PCs simply being low on hp doesn't necessarily mean the end. I've seen a lot of times when several PCs are down or close to down, and they think it is all over - but they still have several rounds of fighting. And during those rounds, another PC might roll a 20 and stand back up. And by the time they go down, someone has gotten a healing potion into a friend. And just before they finally drop - the last monster falls.

I suspect a lot of times when DMs 'foresee' a TPK and intentionally cushion things to avoid it, the party may well have been able to overcome that TPK on their own anyway.

Note: All this is in regards to 4E. TPKs in 3rd Edition could be a lot more sudden and a lot more unpredictable, at least in my experience. In many cases, it might come down to the party - when you get in a rough spot, do you have the right tools to handle the enemy? If not, run or die could often be the only options on the table.
 

In our nearly 2 years of playing 4E, I have noticed that we have had many battles where we feared that we were in for a TPK but it didn't happen. I don't know whether we have a really sneaky but merciful DM or we just feared that we were in worse shape than we actually were in.

In my experience, this is a feature of 4E: you often have combats that start out going badly, producing a lot of fear, and then swing to the PCs winning with no casualties. I find that it can be very effective for making combats feel exciting.

I'm not sure why it seems to happen more in 4E than in other game systems. Part of it is that PCs are like yo-yos--they may be knocked unconscious, but a minor action by a leader later and they're back in the fight, whereas the monsters tend to have no healing. A common pattern in my experience is "PCs are bloodied or even unconscious at a point when all of the monsters are up--oh no this looks really bad--heal the PCs up and drop even one monster and suddenly we're 5 on 4 and the fight looks better--drop another monster and we start cleaning up." But that pattern existed in previous editions and other games as well, so it can't be all of it. Part of it might be the "oh no we're doing badly--everyone drop your dailies"? Not sure on the exact causes, but I find it happens all the time when 4E is working well.
 

A few sessions ago, my 4E group was headed for a TPK. We were all below 15 hit points, and 2/6 were unconscious. We had just bloodied the final elite monster.

We stalled for time. We looked up obscure rules. We argued whether it should be a minor or a standard action to pour a healing potion in an unconscious person's mouth.

Time ran out.

The elite monster teleported away--we thought it might, as it had the previous time we had fought it. See, we all knew that the DM's girlfriend was coming over for dinner. We had to hurriedly pack up and leave. :angel:
 

The signs usually appear just about the time you realize that retreat has become (next to) impossible. At least in older editions. I can't speak to 4E as I haven't played enough of it.
 

I've seen a few in 4e so far. One happened because the group was ill-prepared for the fight, and played right into the monster's strengths, and never changed tactics even though they knew they were fighting the creature sub-optimally (needlefang drake swarm, for what it's worth). I wound resetting the encounter, and the party ran it again, and while it was tough, they did better once they changed their tactic.

With a similar party, they were TPKed by a low level solo brute I made up. It was another case of the party playing right into the creature's strengths, coupled with aiming at hard to hit defences and not fighting as a party (ie, no tactics, just "rush it and kill it", which was the usual 3e tactic).

In the 3rd 4e TPK I've been in, I was a player, and it was mostly a case of the PCs being unable to avoid the encounter and having already gone through about nine encounters that day (we were low level). I think the players in that encounter were a bit tired of having encounters thrown at us, using metagame reasoning that if we ran from this one, we'd just get hit by another (which was probably untrue) and we fought it. And got destroyed.

A few early warning signs of a TPK I've noticed in 4e:

1) The monsters are hitting, and the PCs are not. If this is happening a lot, there is usually a reason this is happening. If it's the fact that GMs monsters are higher level, this could be a problem. If it's just that the PCs aren't functioning as a unit, and the GM's monsters are, then as a GM, just let the encounter carry on (and maybe point out that the PCs should be working together).

2) If the party is really low on surges, a TPK is almost certainly a possibility. If you're on the player's side of the screen, try to run. If you can't run, the GM is gunning for you, and accept your death bravely. IF you're the GM, either call of the fight, or let the PCs run. PCs should almost always have a way to avoid a fight if they're low on surges... unless they're the one that started it, in which case... bring it on.

3) The PCs keep using the same tactic, and it doesn't work this time around. If this happens, it can be a good warning sign - the PCs are using the same old tactical approach, and it just doesn't work on this particular combo of monsters. As an example, a mostly-ranged party is fighting a monster that is resistant to ranged attacks, or on a battlefield with a lot of concealing terrain - and they still focus on ranged attacks while the monsters tear the party apart. Also applies when a "rush one monster at a time" party gets divided, and doesn't know how to cope with the new situation. My advice? Let the encounter ride - it's a party problem, not yours.

4) If the PCs are using only at-wills (having used all their dailies and encounters) and the monsters are still using encounters, it can be a good warning sign that bad things are around the corner.

5) The GM plays monsters to their best abilities... and the players refuse to use daily powers. This combination will eventually lead to a TPK. Also, if PCs rarely use dailies in the first few rounds, it can lead to TPKs in a lot of cases (Dailies are best spent early, after all).
 

We stalled for time. We looked up obscure rules. We argued whether it should be a minor or a standard action to pour a healing potion in an unconscious person's mouth.


Haha, yeah. We've done this before, and joked about doing it a lot. The term I coined for this sort of thing is "filibustering the DM".
 

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