D&D 5E (2014) I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?

[SkidAce]

It was up against three books with new movie releases and big advertising campaigns behind them ("If I Stay" and "The Fault in Our Stars", and "The Giver"), a book that has a massive hit TV show premiering right now ("Outlander"), two Rick Riorden books (guy who writes Percy Jackson books, also movies), a new Kevin Follet book (he's a huge bestseller, and his books are made into big TV shows), and a new Jack Reacher book (made into movies), and Divergent (a hit movie, current big on DVD rentals). And all that is ignoring the elephant in the room - it was back to school week, and every friggen back to school book was spiking at that time.

I would say the 5e PHB beat out massive competition for that spot.

Anecdotal evidence from selling books (totally separate from any B&N official statistics), from what I've seen with the popular books and the school books, I'd agree with [MENTION=2525]Mistwell[/MENTION].

 

[thecasualoblivion]

If a greater percentage of customers buy the PHB from amazon than they did with 4E, it could skew the numbers.

I think this argument is academic. I consider myself one of the biggest 5E doomsayers and I always thought the 5E PHB would sell great upon release.

If/when Paizo starts outselling D&D again in Q1 2015 we'll know, and if the community ends up with 35-40% playing 5E and 60-65% end up playing other editions or systems than we'll know.

 

[Mistwell]

If a greater percentage of customers buy the PHB from amazon than they did with 4E, it could skew the numbers.

I think this argument is academic. I consider myself one of the biggest 5E doomsayers and I always thought the 5E PHB would sell great upon release.

Being one of the biggest 5e doomsayers with an admitted active desire for revenge against WOTC and 5e can also skew ones perspective on the numbers

All evidence out there suggests Amazon consistently represents about 30% of a books total sales, and is representative of sale channels in general. They're giving the same percentage discount on this book, that they do on average for other books. Gamers are not uniquely cheap or uniquely inclined to make online purchases - indeed it could be said retail book stores are closing at a faster rate than game stores, and offer fewer reasons for consumer loyalty than game stores.

 

[prosfilaes]

It was up against three books with new movie releases and big advertising campaigns behind them

The book that nudged the PHB out of its place is the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 6th Edition. If an evergreen book is holding the number one place, then it's probably not massive competition. The top 12 right now are

1. Publication Manual of the American Ps...
2. If I Stay
3. Player's Handbook
4. I>Clicker 2
5. 100 Days of Real Food: How We Did It,...
6. To Kill a Mockingbird
7. StrengthsFinder 2.0
8. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of...
9. The Heroes of Olympus Book Five: The...
10. "They Say / I Say": The Moves That Ma...
11. The Great Gatsby
12. Where She Went

I'd like data when the PHB was #1, but still these are basically the books the PHB was competing against. Whatever else is out there, it didn't even show up to the track to run for the gold. Again, nothing is selling well enough to beat the Publication Manual of the APA, and second place is held by a novel that's been out for four years, not one that's fresh out and in demand. Frankly, I don't see a movie of a major novel being a #1 bestseller; it's had its first sell, it's already saturated its target audience, and even those who buy it because of the movie may do it weeks before or weeks after the movie.

 

[sgtscott658]

My impression is that 4E was brought out to put an end to third party's publishing 3.x material. The problem WoTC ran into I think is that 3.5 was such a rich and robust system that many people stuck with it or went on to pathfinder. As of now, I am giving 5E a chance with my group but boy, there are some things in 5E I just am not getting my mind wrapped around on. The concentration rules are confusing, the Rogue with Cunning action can be devastating, cantrips are very powerful and class special abilities can deal out some serious hurt on the DM's encounters. Once more I think WotC is trying to put the kabash on 3.x publishers with this latest edition but it might not work. Too much 4E residue in 5E more or less to be honest and something I personally am really not to enthused about.

If a greater percentage of customers buy the PHB from amazon than they did with 4E, it could skew the numbers.

I think this argument is academic. I consider myself one of the biggest 5E doomsayers and I always thought the 5E PHB would sell great upon release.

If/when Paizo starts outselling D&D again in Q1 2015 we'll know, and if the community ends up with 35-40% playing 5E and 60-65% end up playing other editions or systems than we'll know.

 

[Maggan]

A thought experiment.

If we take the conservative view of this, and say that the current number one spot is a book no one in their right mind would buy, so it's probably not selling that well, and the second spot is taken by a four year old book which means that most of the sales were milked out of it a long time ago, and the third spot is D&D, a book sold to a niche audience where over half the customers hate the publisher with a vengeance ... and it didn't even beat out the two in front.

So let's say it is very easy to get into the bestseller list. Trivial even. So the top list on Amazon really shows that sales are weak all over. The mix of totally uninteresting books no one could possibly be buying proves that.

If that is the case, I hope that Amazon is freaking the heck out right now. They have to be planning to stop selling books, because if sales are that bad, and the list is basically worthless, what about those books that are not on the list? They can't be selling squat.

If book sales are so bad at Amazon that any old book could top the list, why is Amazon still in this business? If Amazon has built their entire empire on selling rather small quantities of bestselling books now and then, and then a single book every other month or so for the rest not on the bestseller list, then they are killing the book store trade using a big fat whopper.

Interesting times.

/Maggan

 

[billd91]

A thought experiment.

<snip>

If book sales are so bad at Amazon that any old book could top the list, why is Amazon still in this business? If Amazon has built their entire empire on selling rather small quantities of bestselling books now and then, and then a single book every other month or so for the rest not on the bestseller list, then they are killing the book store trade using a big fat whopper.

Interesting times.

/Maggan

To add to the thought experiment - you may notice that Amazon is widening its product base.

But that said, the 4 year old book currently has a brand spanking new movie release out. That'll give it a substantial bump in sales - probably not as big as its first release, but probably substantial. That author also holds spot #12 with her sequel so clearly the movie must be good for her books right now. What that means about the 5e Player's Handbook sales is anybody's guess.

 

[technoextreme]

That said, I would still be curious what a new, golden era of D&D would be like.

It would look nothing like 5E I'll tell you that much. All 5E is doing is rehashing tropes and fiction that only people in the 30 and up demographic would really have any interest in.

 

[Sailor Moon]

Here is the New York Times best seller list for 2014.

[TABLE="class: bestSellersList singleRule"] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]1[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]1[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] OUTLANDER, by Diana Gabaldon. (Dell.) Claire Randall, an English nurse, is transported back to 1743 during a second honeymoon in the Scottish Highlands. There she begins an affair with James Fraser, a redheaded soldier. Originally published in 2004. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]2[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]
[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] LOVE LETTERS, by Debbie Macomber. (Ballantine.) Three couples struggle with intimacy one summer at Cedar Cove’s Rose Harbor Inn. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]3[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]2[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] BIG LITTLE LIES, by Liane Moriarty. (Amy Einhorn/Putnam.) Who will end up dead, and how, when three mothers with children in the same school become friends? [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]4[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]
[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] THE 6TH EXTINCTION, by James Rollins. (Morrow/HarperCollins.) The 10th Sigma Force novel offers Nazis, an ancient secret, a ticking nuclear clock and alien life-forms. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]5[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]
[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] COLORLESS TSUKURU TAZAKI AND HIS YEARS OF PILGRIMAGE, by Haruki Murakami. (Knopf.) A young man’s difficult coming-of-age. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]6[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]3[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] GONE GIRL, by Gillian Flynn. (Crown.) A woman disappears on the day of her fifth anniversary; is her husband a killer? [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]90[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]7[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]9[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] THE GOLDFINCH, by Donna Tartt. (Little, Brown.) A painting smuggled out of the Metropolitan Museum of Art after a bombing becomes a boy’s prize, guilt and burden. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]43[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]8[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]7[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] FIFTY SHADES OF GREY, by E. L. James. (Vintage.) An innocent college student falls in love with a tortured man with particular sexual tastes; the first of a trilogy. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]69[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]9[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]14[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] ORPHAN TRAIN, by Christina Baker Kline. (Morrow/HarperCollins.) A historical novel about orphans swept off the streets of New York and sent to the Midwest in the 1920s. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]30[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]10[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]15[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] NOT A DRILL, by Lee Child. (Delacorte.) In this e-book short story, Jack Reacher is on a summer hike when the trail is suddenly closed and the military police show up. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]11[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]11[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] THE HEIST, by Daniel Silva. (Harper.) Gabriel Allon, an art restorer and occasional spy for the Israeli secret service, must track down a famous missing painting by Caravaggio. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]12[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]
[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] ALL THE LIGHT WE CANNOT SEE, by Anthony Doerr. (Scribner.) The lives of a blind French girl and a gadget-obsessed German boy before and during World War II. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]13[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]
[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] DRAGONFLY IN AMBER, by Diana Gabaldon. (Dell.) Volume 2 of the Outlander series, about an 18th-century Scottish warrior and a time-traveling World War II-era nurse; first published in 1992. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]14[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]
[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] INVISIBLE, by James Patterson and David Ellis. (Little, Brown.) Searching for her sister’s killer, a former F.B.I. researcher finds a link between scores of unsolved cases. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookDetails"] [TD="class: index"]15[/TD] [TD="class: symbol"]
[/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]
[/TD] [TD="class: summary"] THE BOOK OF LIFE, by Deborah Harkness. (Viking.) In the conclusion to the All Souls trilogy, the Oxford scholar/witch Diana Bishop and the vampire geneticist Matthew Clairmont return from Elizabethan London to the present. [/TD] [TD="class: weeklyPosition"]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: bookActions"] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD]
[/TD] [TD="class: reviewLinks meta"]
[/TD] [TD="class: bestsellersPurchase"]
[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Strange how none of these are in the top over at Amazon.

 

[Mistwell]

The book that nudged the PHB out of its place is the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 6th Edition. If an evergreen book is holding the number one place, then it's probably not massive competition. The top 12 right now are

First, it was originally "If I Stay" that did it, and second, that is not an evergreen book. It's a new textbook for Psych 101, required reading at a massive number of colleges right now, and it's back to school week. If ONLY text books were evergreen, students wouldn't be fleeced for so much money every year

I'd like data when the PHB was #1, but still these are basically the books the PHB was competing against. Whatever else is out there

You're looking at a snapshot, not an overall picture for the last week or so. The books I named were all up there at the time it took #1.

second place is held by a novel that's been out for four years, not one that's fresh out and in demand.

You are very incorrect in that - it's in theaters right now, which is why it's selling like hotcakes.

Frankly, I don't see a movie of a major novel being a #1 bestseller; it's had its first sell, it's already saturated its target audience, and even those who buy it because of the movie may do it weeks before or weeks after the movie.

Well, you'd be wrong in that. Movies usually make their books top of the bestseller list, even if the book is decades old (hence Great Gatsby hit top bestseller for a time). There was a lot of data that came out on that when Ender's Game was in theaters, for political reasons. It's a much wider audience than the book gets on it's initial movie release, and these movies based on novels showing up in the top bestsellers is consistent with prior data.

We have lots of really good, hard data from a lot of top bestsellers who revealed their sales numbers on Amazon at different times of the year with different levels of competition, and they all roughly agree that the top book sells in the thousands of books per hour. Until someone here shows that level of evidence to the contrary, and stops using just their own instincts combined with admitted anti-WOTC or anti-5e bias, I think these challenges to the meaningfulness of taking the #1 slot look quite shallow. Take the high route - just let 5e fans enjoy this moment in time - however brief it might be, it's meaningful for now.