D&D 5E I think we can safely say that 5E is a success, but will it lead to a new Golden Era?

[Mistwell]

Let's make 2 hypothetical assumptions:
1) 5E sells 10X over 4E in the first month
2) 5E sales/popularity follow the same pattern as 4E over the next 36 months.

(For the record, I don't believe or expect either of these)

Those two assumptions lead to: 5E Failure

I'm not predicting failure. I expect huge success (though I'm not promising that yet either )

But the point is, 5E is doing some form of "really good". We don't know specifically.
And it doesn't mean anything about the long term.

I keep getting this reply, and I find it odd.

Every time I post in this thread, or similar threads, I explain in the post that I am not talking about the long term and I agree the long term remains in question.

And every time, I get a reply that says yes but we don't know about the long term.

What else can I do here, to not get that reply? Do I have to put the disclaimer it bold, red, huge letters? What's it going to take for my position to be any more clear - it's doing well right now, better than 4e did at this stage and probably better than 3.0e and 3.5e at this stage, but we don't know about the long term of course because we're not at the long term.

I get it, you get it, we all get it. We're talking about right now, in the short term, it's doing well. We're not talking about the long term, because none of us can predict the future and nobody is trying to either from what I can tell.

 

[prosfilaes]

We're not talking about the long term, because none of us can predict the future and nobody is trying to either from what I can tell.

So why are you talking about the currently non-existent DungeonScape on the PDF thread?

 

[sgtscott658]

Man, that gotta suck to work under those type of conditions. One moment your working to produce great stuff, the next moment your handed a pink slip and told to go home. Hopefully there is a special place in hell for CEO's that dont think or care for their employee's well being.


Scott

After twenty-five years, I'm not sure how many MtG staff grew up on D&D.
And the CEO of WotC is a Hasbro suit. He's likely very unfamiliar with D&D and likely has zero emotional attachment to the game. If it doesn't make money, he will axe it without a second thought.

 

[Neonchameleon]

After twenty-five years, I'm not sure how many MtG staff grew up on D&D.
And the CEO of WotC is a Hasbro suit. He's likely very unfamiliar with D&D and likely has zero emotional attachment to the game. If it doesn't make money, he will axe it without a second thought.

If the CEO was just a corporate suit, their financial report wouldn't look like this. (Note: Almost no mention of D&D - one of the rumors is that D&D is being kept alive in the hope that some of the IP might do a Marvel).

 

[Halivar]

If the CEO was just a corporate suit, their financial report wouldn't look like this. (Note: Almost no mention of D&D - one of the rumors is that D&D is being kept alive in the hope that some of the IP might do a Marvel).

Yeah, just reading the opening statement and the closing statement tell me that guy's a total geek.

 

[Thaumaturge]

I keep getting this reply, and I find it odd.

Every time I post in this thread, or similar threads, I explain in the post that I am not talking about the long term and I agree the long term remains in question.

And every time, I get a reply that says yes but we don't know about the long term.

What else can I do here, to not get that reply? Do I have to put the disclaimer it bold, red, huge letters? What's it going to take for my position to be any more clear - it's doing well right now, better than 4e did at this stage and probably better than 3.0e and 3.5e at this stage, but we don't know about the long term of course because we're not at the long term.

I get it, you get it, we all get it. We're talking about right now, in the short term, it's doing well. We're not talking about the long term, because none of us can predict the future and nobody is trying to either from what I can tell.

Yes.

But we don't know about the long term, do we?

Thaumaturge.

 

[Bluenose]

It did, but not this well. It never got to #1 in all books, and in fact it never even got close to that number. According to Mike Mearls, the only book to ever get #1 from WOTC was a 3e PHB (I think it was the 3.0e one, but it might have been the 3.5e), and at the time Amazon was not selling as many books as they do now by a large factor.

So yes, 4e sold well at first. But no, 4e didn't sell this well at first.

The problem with that is that getting to No.1 depends to a large extent on what the competition is as well as your own product. There's a reason "blockbuster" movies try very hard not to compete with each other, because one is going to turn out as the loser. It's not impossible (I think it's unlikely, mind you) that Amazon sold more 4e PHBs than it has 5e PHBs, but the other books coming out around the same time were selling more than the high-sellers 5e is competing with.

 

[delericho]

It's also entirely possible that the reason the 4e PHB didn't hit #1 was that it was sold in two options: either standalone or as part of a bundle with the DMG and MM. Because those were counted separately, they served to split the vote. Combine the two, and it may well have been #1.

 

[Mistwell]

So why are you talking about the currently non-existent DungeonScape on the PDF thread?

You mean where I talk about what Hobo has said it's functionality is, rather than predicting how well it will do? I have not talked about predicting things we don't know...I am just assuming they're not liars when they tell us about the functionality.

 

[Mistwell]

The problem with that is that getting to No.1 depends to a large extent on what the competition is as well as your own product. There's a reason "blockbuster" movies try very hard not to compete with each other, because one is going to turn out as the loser. It's not impossible (I think it's unlikely, mind you) that Amazon sold more 4e PHBs than it has 5e PHBs, but the other books coming out around the same time were selling more than the high-sellers 5e is competing with.

It was up against three books with new movie releases and big advertising campaigns behind them ("If I Stay" and "The Fault in Our Stars", and "The Giver"), a book that has a massive hit TV show premiering right now ("Outlander"), two Rick Riorden books (guy who writes Percy Jackson books, also movies), a new Kevin Follet book (he's a huge bestseller, and his books are made into big TV shows), and a new Jack Reacher book (made into movies), and Divergent (a hit movie, current big on DVD rentals). And all that is ignoring the elephant in the room - it was back to school week, and every friggen back to school book was spiking at that time.

I would say the 5e PHB beat out massive competition for that spot.