If 4d6dl is the baseline, what's the PB/Array?

[Invisible Stalker]

Both the rolling and point-buy camps have strong opinions on this, such that I don't think there can ever be a consensus.

Then make the compromise candidate, the array, the default. This would be the best one for new players anyway. As long as Point-buy stays for official events and all three can be used equally as well in home games, I think this part of 5E can be put to bed.

Some of us need our ability to roll well with the d6 to overcome our inability to roll well with the d20.

 

[FreeTheSlaves]

I agree HowandWhy99, without knowing the modifier values and point buy weighting - I can't get my answer! A case of wait & see methinks.

I feel that the original 4E default array or the Essentials one may be harbingers of what's to come.

 

[Gort]

It's also perhaps worth noting that the rolling method is much better for new players, who then only need to understand what the six scores mean, rather than having to grasp all the intricacies of the point buy method in use.

Huh? It's really not that hard to say to someone, "Hey, you're playing a fighter - put your best score in strength, next best in wisdom, next one in dexterity and the rest don't really matter."

By the way, I don't like point-buy much either - I've always been a proponent of the actual 4e default, which was the standard array. I even know it by heart.

 

[nightwalker450]

I was beating myself up with probability last night, didn't get as far as I'd like to, but here's some stuff to chew on.

Using 4d6 drop Lowest:

• First column is on a single roll, what your chances of having that number is
• Second column is on a set of 6 rolls, what the chances are of that number being your highest.
• Last column is on a set of 6 rolls, what the chances are of that number being your lowest number.
• Averages, so at the end you have the average for a given roll, the average for the highest roll, and the average for the lowest roll.

STAT Prob Highest Lowest
3 0.0772% 0.0000% 0.4621%
4 0.3086% 0.0000% 1.8305%
5 0.7716% 0.0000% 4.4540%
6 1.6204% 0.0000% 8.8047%
7 2.9321% 0.0000% 14.1743%
8 4.7840% 0.0001% 18.8561%
9 7.0216% 0.0028% 19.9237%
10 9.4136% 0.0352% 16.2727%
11 11.4198% 0.2799% 9.7309%
12 12.8858% 1.4907% 4.1461%
13 13.2716% 5.3958% 1.1449%
14 12.3457% 13.3982% 0.1846%
15 10.1080% 22.6400% 0.0149%
16 7.2531% 26.6873% 0.0005%
17 4.1667% 20.7331% 0.0000%
18 1.6204% 9.3368% 0.0000%
-----
AVG 12.24 15.66 8.50

From these numbers you can add them together to figure out chances of those top and bottom rolls. Such that ~30% of characters will have a 17 or 18 and ~30% will have a stat below 8.

What I want is the numbers in between.. such that what are your chances of having a 16 as your third highest stat, or a 12 as your second highest stat? Unfortunately my probability thinking broke down, and I've been stuck at how to figure these out (Pointers?).

 

[delericho]

Huh? It's really not that hard to say to someone, "Hey, you're playing a fighter - put your best score in strength, next best in wisdom, next one in dexterity and the rest don't really matter."

That was my point exactly - if you're using random rolls, or a standard array, that's all there is to it.

But with point buy, you really need some sort of notion of the trade-offs - should you go with 16/14/14 or 16/15/13 for those top three stats, for example?

 

[Hassassin]

What I want is the numbers in between.. such that what are your chances of having a 16 as your third highest stat, or a 12 as your second highest stat? Unfortunately my probability thinking broke down, and I've been stuck at how to figure these out (Pointers?).

I think:

P(2nd highest = 14) = P(highest >= 14) * P(highest from 5 = 14)
P(3rd highest = 13) = P(2nd highest >= 13) * P(highest from 4 = 13)

Etc.

Note that you aren't taking into account rerolling rules.

Edit: No, the above isn't correct.

 

[nightwalker450]

I think:

P(2nd highest = 14) = P(highest >= 14) * P(highest from 5 = 14)
P(3rd highest = 13) = P(2nd highest >= 13) * P(highest from 4 = 13)

Etc.

Note that you aren't taking into account rerolling rules.

I'm pretty sure I tried those probabilities and my numbers weren't coming out correct. I'm expecting once I have the probability for each number being the second highest, the sum of those should add up to 100%. I'll try again, maybe I just had a typo somewhere (or excel is rounding throwing it off)...

As to rerolling, if you mean reroll if the modifiers don't reach a certain amount, or if you don't have any stat above x amount... No I'm not doing those, that would likely make my head explode. Also those rules vary group to group, so to do it justice I'd have to basically turn it into a calculator that you input all the rules, and get output. (Granted this would be fun, and something I might try after I can figure out the probability for the mid points)

 

[Hassassin]

I'm pretty sure I tried those probabilities and my numbers weren't coming out correct. I'm expecting once I have the probability for each number being the second highest, the sum of those should add up to 100%. I'll try again, maybe I just had a typo somewhere (or excel is rounding throwing it off)...

Like I wrote above, no it wasn't correct.

These sort of probabilities are so annoying to calculate that I usually just use a Monte Carlo simulation.

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

I've always liked 25-pt, 15/14/13/12/10/8.

 

[nightwalker450]

Ok, if anyone was interested, here's the graph of the data for what 4d6 drop lowest yields. As was pointed out this does not take into account rerolls. The 2nd-5th positions were found through Brute Force Monte Carlo (100,000,000 points)

The average stat array then is:
15.66, 14.16, 12.93, 11.73, 10.38, 8.50
--16,14,13,12,10,9
--4E this is 20 points

Just wanted to share