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Is it time for 5E?
- Thread starter CleverNickName
- Start date
Jack Daniel
dice-universe.blogspot.com
Well, anybody who imagines that 4e will stay evergreen and just get revised via online updates has their head in the clouds. Of course there will be a 5e; it's just a matter of time.
What matters is whether 5e will be anything like the marketing miracle that 3e was. 3e brought back droves of lapsed gamers who played 1e but didn't like 2e, and gamers who had migrated to WoD or GURPS or had just given up on role-playing altogether; and it single-handedly created the 3rd party market with the OGL. At this point, only a 5e with some kind of open license can do the impossible and reunite the fractured base of 4e, PF, and OSR players.
Personally, I await with righteous amusement the day when the WotC designers finally come forward with their pitch for 5e, because they will be obliged to point out all of 4e's flaws, explain why 4e suddenly sucks now (but it really sucked all along, you just didn't know it if you were having fun playing it), and how 5e will fix all of your problems (which you may or may not have known you had).
3e dissed 2e with its "back to the dungeon" campaign.
4e dissed 3e with its "10 minutes of fun packed into 4 hours of play" meme.
5e? I predict that it will have something to do with dialing back the hour-long battles and dissociated mechanics. At least, it had better if WotC wants to reunite the fanbase.
What matters is whether 5e will be anything like the marketing miracle that 3e was. 3e brought back droves of lapsed gamers who played 1e but didn't like 2e, and gamers who had migrated to WoD or GURPS or had just given up on role-playing altogether; and it single-handedly created the 3rd party market with the OGL. At this point, only a 5e with some kind of open license can do the impossible and reunite the fractured base of 4e, PF, and OSR players.
Personally, I await with righteous amusement the day when the WotC designers finally come forward with their pitch for 5e, because they will be obliged to point out all of 4e's flaws, explain why 4e suddenly sucks now (but it really sucked all along, you just didn't know it if you were having fun playing it), and how 5e will fix all of your problems (which you may or may not have known you had).
3e dissed 2e with its "back to the dungeon" campaign.
4e dissed 3e with its "10 minutes of fun packed into 4 hours of play" meme.
5e? I predict that it will have something to do with dialing back the hour-long battles and dissociated mechanics. At least, it had better if WotC wants to reunite the fanbase.
Alaxk Knight of Galt
First Post
They've done this for Magic. They simply call it Magic 11, or Magic 10 based on the current year.
M.L. Martin
Adventurer
2nd Edition dropped the numbering as of 1995, feeling that there was no longer a need to differentiate. (That was probably the point at which they'd sold through the last of the 1E backstock. TSR's approach to edition change was dramatically different from WotC's "There is no back catalog" approach.
)Having my 4th Edition Core Rulebook Collection at hand, the box and the back covers refer to '4th edition'. The front covers don't. The credits refer to the 4th Edition design and development teams, but the text of the books only references '4th Edition' in the "History of D&D" sidebar in the PH.
Dice4Hire
First Post
It is called winter vacation, people.
As for 5E. No, it is too early. 4E came at the right time. 3.5 was done. They had explored everything they really could and had seemingly run out of ideas. The last few complete books were just minor minor variations on themes. The big departures from the themes, like Tome of Magic and Incarnum, had not done well at all.
5E is still a long ways away. I still see a lot that WOTC can do with 4E. I just hope it is with regular 4E, not essentials style.
RangerWickett
Legend
They should go the The Fast and the Furious route, and make the next edition Too Dungeony, Too Dragony.
But yeah, sure, I think WotC should have long term plans, and those plans probably involve releasing a new edition in 2 to 4 years. They're probably looking at new technologies, trying to figure out when it'll be best to jump into the all-electronic field, where you run games from a tablet, and everyone has their characters on their smart phones, and your animated holographic 3D miniatures move around on your Microsoft Surface touchscreen table.
Sure, you can still purchase print-on-demand books, and print your character sheets, and use a rolled up map with dry erase markers, but the norm will be high tech.
But yeah, sure, I think WotC should have long term plans, and those plans probably involve releasing a new edition in 2 to 4 years. They're probably looking at new technologies, trying to figure out when it'll be best to jump into the all-electronic field, where you run games from a tablet, and everyone has their characters on their smart phones, and your animated holographic 3D miniatures move around on your Microsoft Surface touchscreen table.
Sure, you can still purchase print-on-demand books, and print your character sheets, and use a rolled up map with dry erase markers, but the norm will be high tech.
I suppose that WoTC could announce 5e at any time but I do not see it happening anytime soon. I think they are putting a lot of effort into online tools and DDI right now and changing editions before that is completed and out the door would be madness.
It would pretty much kill DDI. For that matter the fans would not wear it, the edition wars still rumble on a little and that would have to fade for a successful marketing campaign.
From my own experience of the VTT and the other online tools, they are a couple of year out from final version in my opinion.
Basically in my opinion the requirements for a successful launch of 5e are;
All the 4e tools have to be out there in DDi and in a intgrated fashion.
In that Characters created in the CB would have to be importable into the VTT , the same with monsters. The campaing management tools (what ever they are; at least an encounter builder and journalling capacity) would need to be in place and we would have to have some history to see how stuff like player/DM is and third party stuff is handled.
They are from 2 to 4 years away from that at the moment.
Then the electronic tools to support 5e need to be in place from the get go or no-ne will adpot, having being spoiled on the 4e tools.
We alsready have people refusing to create essentials characters by hand.
While, in 5 years the mass paperback market may not have been replaced by the eReader, the winning format will porbably be known and the end of the mass paperback market will be visible.
So Wizards amy go books plus electronic, or electronic plus books or a mix of both, or they may go electronic plus box sets full of coloured plastic.
It would pretty much kill DDI. For that matter the fans would not wear it, the edition wars still rumble on a little and that would have to fade for a successful marketing campaign.
From my own experience of the VTT and the other online tools, they are a couple of year out from final version in my opinion.
Basically in my opinion the requirements for a successful launch of 5e are;
All the 4e tools have to be out there in DDi and in a intgrated fashion.
In that Characters created in the CB would have to be importable into the VTT , the same with monsters. The campaing management tools (what ever they are; at least an encounter builder and journalling capacity) would need to be in place and we would have to have some history to see how stuff like player/DM is and third party stuff is handled.
They are from 2 to 4 years away from that at the moment.
Then the electronic tools to support 5e need to be in place from the get go or no-ne will adpot, having being spoiled on the 4e tools.
We alsready have people refusing to create essentials characters by hand.
While, in 5 years the mass paperback market may not have been replaced by the eReader, the winning format will porbably be known and the end of the mass paperback market will be visible.
So Wizards amy go books plus electronic, or electronic plus books or a mix of both, or they may go electronic plus box sets full of coloured plastic.
Stormonu
Legend
I'd be willing to bet as soon as 5E comes out, the 4E tools would vanish. "Evolve or Die".
It is impossible to say at this point in time. The VTT as currently exists could be used to play any rpg but it does have a bias to 4e.I'd be willing to bet as soon as 5E comes out, the 4E tools would vanish. "Evolve or Die".
What actually happens and wheither WOTC take a heavy or light hand remains to be seen.
What they actually do, in practice will, I think have a very significant impact on how the tools are used, how they evolve and the general acceptance of the tools in the marketplace.
IMHO, they would be wise to facilitate any game played in their tools, since it encourages subscriptions to DDI. Subscriptions to DDI may prove a more valuable revenue stream than anything the editions make.
However, all that remains to be seen and as of this moment all bets are off.
Time will tell.
Remathilis
Legend
Difficult to predict, the future is. - Yoda.
Lets look at the recent developments.
- D&D Essentials just came out, to generally positive reviews. Its turn-around time was fairly quick, and it incorporated errata, new ways of doing stuff, and some alternative sub-systems into the 4e game. Its recent push of new material (much of it "evergreen" rule books and starters) leads one to believe that they intended it for more than just one year.
- WotC has just released a new character builder, and has plans for a new monster builder and virtual table top. Software needs long lead-time, much longer than even the game books themselves. By the time they finish debugging the online tools, the new ones would have to be ready for a new edition.
- There were no annual WotC layoffs. This means they are at or below acceptable team-levels OR they are bulking up for new development.
- Several early-released books disappeared off the radar. This included updates to the PHB (Heroes of Swd & Spl) and the Nentir Vale gaz. This can mean a lot of things: the material isn't ready (due to lack of development time), its being held to puff-out the latter half of 2011 (possibly due to other cancellations), or they are killing the products to prep a new edition (2000/2008 all over again). The last possibility is that they are winding down D&D products altogether due to lack of energetic sales. (Aka the Doomsday scenario).
- D&DMinis and Heroescape have both wound down to next to nothing. This bodes poorly to the mini-heavy 4e, and pogs/tokens have taken they're place as a cheap alternative.
- Pre-Essential material (such as PHB3 and MM3) didn't sell as well as Core 1 and Core 2 releases. This is the reason for a lack of DMG3, the ending of the PHB/DMG/MM a year schedule, and perhaps even "classic" itself. Only Dark Sun bucked the trend.
- D&D Neverwinter is still in development and supposed to utilize the D&D 4e rules. Its unclear if they are the Classic or Essential version of the rules. In theory, it could be changed to a mythical 5e.
- Dragon/Dungeon Content is thin. This bodes poorly because it means they aren't getting enough submissions, or they are withholding material (see books, above).
- Thanks to the thinning content, the char-builder debacle, and problems with monster-builder and the compendium updates, there seems to be a rash of DDi account cancellations (anecdotal, at least). That could mean a cash-flow loss.
- 4e, despite inter-compatibility, is now two "branches", Classic and Essential. WotC appears unable or unwilling to support both except through token measures (sparse Dragon material). The material canceled seems to be generally classic-era material. Perhaps this is to make room for more Essential-era material?
What does all this mean? Either...
a.) Essentials did better than anyone at WotC hoped, and they are quickly recalculating their product lineup to take into account their "new" D&Ds success, phasing out "classic" support altogether.
b.) Essentials did well, but not well enough and they are gearing up for a major new revision/edition/marketing blitz to try to win back the numerous fans they lost in various 4e-era debacles (the roll-out, DDi, PDFs, etc).
c.) Essentials did well, but not enough to keep D&D as a primary WotC cash-cow. Material will be thin from here-on-out, leading to an eventual shelving in 2012/13.
d.) The Unquiet ghosts of Gygax and Arneson have wrecked havoc on WotC.
A is optimism. B. is desperation, C. is Despair, and D is probably true.
Lets look at the recent developments.
- D&D Essentials just came out, to generally positive reviews. Its turn-around time was fairly quick, and it incorporated errata, new ways of doing stuff, and some alternative sub-systems into the 4e game. Its recent push of new material (much of it "evergreen" rule books and starters) leads one to believe that they intended it for more than just one year.
- WotC has just released a new character builder, and has plans for a new monster builder and virtual table top. Software needs long lead-time, much longer than even the game books themselves. By the time they finish debugging the online tools, the new ones would have to be ready for a new edition.
- There were no annual WotC layoffs. This means they are at or below acceptable team-levels OR they are bulking up for new development.
- Several early-released books disappeared off the radar. This included updates to the PHB (Heroes of Swd & Spl) and the Nentir Vale gaz. This can mean a lot of things: the material isn't ready (due to lack of development time), its being held to puff-out the latter half of 2011 (possibly due to other cancellations), or they are killing the products to prep a new edition (2000/2008 all over again). The last possibility is that they are winding down D&D products altogether due to lack of energetic sales. (Aka the Doomsday scenario).
- D&DMinis and Heroescape have both wound down to next to nothing. This bodes poorly to the mini-heavy 4e, and pogs/tokens have taken they're place as a cheap alternative.
- Pre-Essential material (such as PHB3 and MM3) didn't sell as well as Core 1 and Core 2 releases. This is the reason for a lack of DMG3, the ending of the PHB/DMG/MM a year schedule, and perhaps even "classic" itself. Only Dark Sun bucked the trend.
- D&D Neverwinter is still in development and supposed to utilize the D&D 4e rules. Its unclear if they are the Classic or Essential version of the rules. In theory, it could be changed to a mythical 5e.
- Dragon/Dungeon Content is thin. This bodes poorly because it means they aren't getting enough submissions, or they are withholding material (see books, above).
- Thanks to the thinning content, the char-builder debacle, and problems with monster-builder and the compendium updates, there seems to be a rash of DDi account cancellations (anecdotal, at least). That could mean a cash-flow loss.
- 4e, despite inter-compatibility, is now two "branches", Classic and Essential. WotC appears unable or unwilling to support both except through token measures (sparse Dragon material). The material canceled seems to be generally classic-era material. Perhaps this is to make room for more Essential-era material?
What does all this mean? Either...
a.) Essentials did better than anyone at WotC hoped, and they are quickly recalculating their product lineup to take into account their "new" D&Ds success, phasing out "classic" support altogether.
b.) Essentials did well, but not well enough and they are gearing up for a major new revision/edition/marketing blitz to try to win back the numerous fans they lost in various 4e-era debacles (the roll-out, DDi, PDFs, etc).
c.) Essentials did well, but not enough to keep D&D as a primary WotC cash-cow. Material will be thin from here-on-out, leading to an eventual shelving in 2012/13.
d.) The Unquiet ghosts of Gygax and Arneson have wrecked havoc on WotC.
A is optimism. B. is desperation, C. is Despair, and D is probably true.
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