I think this is always true. And triply so on the internet.
However, the reverse applies as well. People will insist that the thing they like is perfect "as is" and no amount of evidence will change that.
I think PF2E failed to learn from 4E when it went all-in on a math-balance first mechanic foundation.
That's an interesting idea, though I think it's "failure" was largely being a new game at all. Pathfinder was created for people to keep using 3.X and getting content for it; lots of people had big libraries that they still wanted to be able to use, and that was clearly not easy with 4E. Those people still exist today, and that's part of the reason why PF1's base just doesn't switch over: they never were going to. They were attached to PF1
because it was based on an older system. If they stuck through 5E without taking a new system, what makes you think that any system that was notably different from 3.X would garner these people?
It isn't growing. It isn't gaining popularity. It is "fine", I suppose because of course nobody can say what Paizo wanted. But you can't even point to any evidence that it is doing better than PF was doing the day before PF2E was announced. It trades off with Call of Chthulu in sales and there is now 5E 3PP that is solidly outselling it day over day on Amazon.
I mean the former is
demonstrably not true: it does not "trade off in Call of Cthulhu" in sales. CoC does not actually sell that much; that it takes up such a large portion of Roll20 is less a function of "selling" and more 30+ years of influence and sales. We can see this through Amazon, where the biggest CoC book varies from "nearly there" to "not close".
And the 5E 3PP thing happens: it outsold even some of WOTC's own stuff. I don't think you truly understand how big D&D is compared to everything else. The second Tome of Beasts is basically riding its initial sales wave from November, and people are buying up the first Tome at the same time. I don't expect it to maintain that for long.
I know it is considered a low blow to compare PF2E to 5E. But this is 5E 3PP!!!!
I have a hard time believing that Paizo couldn't CRUSH any other 5E 3PP if they had elected to go that direction. And they could have done it with a far smaller investment.
Given the absolute size disparity between the two? I doubt it. People like to assume this because PF1 beat out 4E at certain points, but the markets aren't the same anymore: 5E exploded the size of the RPG market, particularly for itself.
And, of course, I'm just saying this because I'm sour. OK. Guilty. It doesn't make it not true. I'll completely own that I was super excited for the design team of Paizo to turn their talents to a more modern game that still provided the game experience I enjoy. But they turned away from that and I'm bummed by that.
I do like 5E. I like it a lot. But if they wanted to make my personal ideal game it would be a lot different. And it would be a lot less popular. A whole lot less. I am quite conscious of my personal taste bias. And I don't confuse that for trying to look at the data honestly.
I anyone thinks that four years ago the Paizo mgmt sat down and said "go design a game that will be on par with CoC and behind 5E 3PP after 18 months" then I think they are out to lunch.
I think this misses that COVID hit Paizo
really hard. Given how they are running their warehouse at moment, they have had stock issues for a while and have been promoting their PDFs as a way around it.
The gatekeeping claims are 100% BS.
To the contrary, people complaining about PF2E want it to appeal to MORE people.
The biggest two complaints here right now that "PF2 isn't a roleplaying game, it's a rollplaying game" and "PF2 should be more like 5E". One is absolutely a gatekeeping argument, the other is... bland? We've gone over this "ad nauseum", but creating a 5E clone when 5E already exists would seem to be an easier way to get you completely killed comparatively: 5E players will stick with 5E, Pathfinder players (who, again, didn't leave PF for 5E in the first place) stick with 3.X stuff, and you have nothing that draws people in.
Pretending all is well with the PF2 ruleset is not what I consider a fruitful way going forward
Denial of the illness is after all the greatest barrier to healing.
This would be more impactful if it didn't come from a guy who, when rebuked by most of the community, didn't reflect and decided that a "victory declaration" would be more appropriate.
