Let's say that, at Wizards Towers, there is a meeting on what kind of open licensing system they're going to put in place for DDN. It's going well, and lots of the pro's and cons mentioned in this thread are brought up, nodded over, discussed, argued, etc. Then, a couple of hours in, someone walks in with a Pathfinder Roleplaying Game Core Rulebook, slams it down on the table, and walks out.
You're absolutely right to ask this question and it is a good one. I think more than anything else that Pathfinder is proof positive that that Wizards absolutely
should use the OGL for 5e.
I know what you're thinking: I'm crazy. Wrong. I'm thinking like a corporate executive.
What does a corporate executive care about:
selling products. Keep that in mind for a slightly different take on the above scenario.
First some history. Late 90's, White Wolf was gaining dominance over (possibly even beating) D&D 2E.
They were not selling as much products as they should be.
Then 3E came along, Wizards release the core rules for everyone to use under the OGL, giving the fans a sense of ownership that they never had before. This made the fans happy,
allowing them to sell more books.
Then they switched to 3.5 and released the core rules again under the OGL. The fans still had that same sense of ownership. While it did not sell as well as 3E, it did sell still quite well.
They were selling good numbers of books.
Then came the switch to 4E and used a completely different license that was not give the fans the same sense of ownership. Infact it felt more like a leased vehicle or a rented apartment then owning a home or a car. Fans were not happy and
thus did not buy in good numbers.
Meanwhile Pathfinder, a game that was using the OGL, gave the fans that same sense of ownership to the rules. This made the fans of D&D happy, and it did not take long for them to outsell D&D.
Pathfinder sold in good numbers for using the OGL.
Even less well known games that used the OGL were doing well. Spirit of the Century, Traveller, Mutants and Masterminds, and a bunch others. They all had that same sense of ownership and made their fans happy.
They were selling in good numbers.
So the conclusion that a corporate executive would draw is:
Use the OGL =>
Give customers a sense of ownership =>
Customers are happy =>
Higher sales.
The trend is pretty clear.
Use the OGL => Higher Sales. If anything, Pathfinder should be a cautionary tale of why Wizards should never have abandoned the OGL in the first place and that not going OGL for 5e will hurt sales now.
Now to answer everyone who has been saying, "But that will hurt 6E in 5 years." Yea, well, do you know what 5 years is to a corporate executive:
20 quarters of earning reports. If you were a corporate executive, would you really want to tell shareholders for the next 20 quarters that you a) are
making lower sales then you could have because you didn't use some obscure marketing tool that is niche to the industry that would have made customers happy, or b) you have
higher sales then in previous quarters because you allowed the fans a sense of ownership, making them happy that also enabled somebody in their home garage to make something compatible with your product and not get sued over it? What would you rather say?