3E came along, Wizards release the core rules for everyone to use under the OGL, giving the fans a sense of ownership that they never had before. This made the fans happy, allowing them to sell more books.
Then they switched to 3.5 and released the core rules again under the OGL. The fans still had that same sense of ownership. While it did not sell as well as 3E, it did sell still quite well. They were selling good numbers of books.
Then came the switch to 4E and used a completely different license that was not give the fans the same sense of ownership. Infact it felt more like a leased vehicle or a rented apartment then owning a home or a car. Fans were not happy and thus did not buy in good numbers.
I don't know of any particular evidence that 4e was not bought "in good numbers".
I don't see why WotC would have stopped publishing 3.5 and started with 4e if they didn't think they could improve their sales. And as [MENTION=22779]Hussar[/MENTION] has indicated, they did. I think it's pretty clear they didn't reach their $50 million target. Is their evidence that their D&D revenue stream in (say) 2011 was significantly different from the D&D revenue stream in (say) 2007?
Meanwhile Pathfinder, a game that was using the OGL, gave the fans that same sense of ownership to the rules. This made the fans of D&D happy, and it did not take long for them to outsell D&D. Pathfinder sold in good numbers for using the OGL.
Do we know that PF has generated more revenue over its lifetime than 4e over its?
[MENTION=22779]Hussar[/MENTION] has said that we don't know these things. I think he's right.
I also suspect that it wasn't D&D's profits that allowed them to take the time to develop 5e but rather Magic's since MtG is Hasbro's #2 property. I imagine that profits from that game alone allows them to fuel the rest of the company
Does WotC subsidise D&D via MtG? I've never heard this said before, which isn't to say that it's not the case. But I thought each product line reported as a distinct item to Hasbro, and that that is why D&D has to aim for a $50 million target on its own.
Even less well known games that used the OGL were doing well. Spirit of the Century, Traveller, Mutants and Masterminds, and a bunch others. They all had that same sense of ownership and made their fans happy. They were selling in good numbers.
Are you seriously suggesting that these games sold better than 4e?
So the conclusion that a corporate executive would draw is:
Use the OGL =>
Give customers a sense of ownership =>
Customers are happy =>
Higher sales. [/quote]The conclusion I would draw from the 3E/PF/4e debacle, were I a WotC executive, is that pissing off your fans in a niche hobby market, in an environment in which you have granted all your competitors a royalty free licence to try and capture your customer base, is something to be avoided.
I would therefore look for a way to avoid pissing off my fans without granting my competitors a royalty free licence to try and capture my customer base. The D&Dnext "big tent" rhetoric seems to be one element of the "avoid pissing off my fans" part of this strategy.
Now to answer everyone who has been saying, "But that will hurt 6E in 5 years." Yea, well, do you know what 5 years is to a corporate executive: 20 quarters of earning reports. If you were a corporate executive, would you really want to tell shareholders for the next 20 quarters that you a) are making lower sales then you could have because you didn't use some obscure marketing tool that is niche to the industry that would have made customers happy, or b) you have higher sales then in previous quarters because you allowed the fans a sense of ownership, making them happy that also enabled somebody in their home garage to make something compatible with your product and not get sued over it? What would you rather say?
The OGL is not an obscure marketing tool. It is a royalty free licence to your IP, which - for a publishing company - is one of your most valuable assets.
As a corporate executive, my job would include working out to leverage my assets to generate maximum revenue over the near- to medium-term. (I agree the long term tends to be disregarded.) It is going to take a fair bit to persuade me that the best way to do that is to give all my competitors a royalty free licence to exploit those assets.
I more-or-less agree with [MENTION=1]Morrus[/MENTION] upthread, though I'd put it in terms of "customer preferences" rather than "quality". 4e is a game that seems designed to people who like (i) gonzo fantasy, (ii) highly technical action resolution, and (iii) a high degree of indie-style player protagonism achieved via metagame mechanics. In these respects it overlaps somewhat with Burning Wheel, though BW is less gonzo and more gritty and thematically "serious". WotC - whether guided by Heinsoo, or Mearls, or Slavicsek, or Ron Edwards, or whomever - seemed to have thought that there was a big market for this sort of game which Luke Crane had not yet tapped but which they could. It turns out they were wrong. (Though I don't think they really had the best go at it that they might have - their GMing advice was so-so, and their pre-packaged adventures were bad.)
Misjudge your customer preferences like this, in an environment in which your competitor can continue to publish material for the ruleset that you've abandoned, and you won't do as well as you had hoped! The idea that people who hate fighter dailies, and "player empowerment", and "everything is core", would have happily played 4e if only it was released as OGC, strikes me as somewhat fanciful.