Ulthwithian
First Post
Well, the math regarding AoE attacks vs. minions is breathtakingly elegant, IMO. The math, quite simply, is:
percentage chance to hit ~= percentage of minions targeted that are killed
I think the point above about minions being a different type of ablation needs to be be reiterated. Also, the math regarding 'taking 4 MMs to take down a level 1 mob vs. taking 1 MM to take down a level 1 minion' is very relevant. Is it not a 4:1 Minion:Mob ratio?
I will be looking at the Orc Mobs and develop a model for discussing the actual difference between using 1 mob and 4 minions in this post later. One point that is brutally clear from even a cursory inspection is that 4 minions that have a chance to hit within about 10% of the mob they stem from should do quite a bit more damage against single-target strikes. But I will develop the model and then return to discuss.
Edit: All right, I did a 'quick-and-dirty' analysis on Kathra vs. Orcs. Some data:
Kathra average at-will damage vs. Orc Raider: 5.475 (please note, that this is per swing, not per hit.
Expected number of swings to kill Orc Raider: 8.4016 (hp/avg. dmg. per swing)
Kathra hit chance vs. Orc Drudge: 0.55
Expected number of swings to kill Orc Drudge: 1.818
Orc Raider average damage vs. Kathra: 5.35 (again, per swing and not per hit)
Time alive vs. Kathra: 8.4016 swings
Damage dealt in time alive: 44.95 damage
Orc Drudge average damage vs. Kathra: 2.75
4 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra (that is, time until 4 Orc Drudges are not alive vs. Kathra): 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 20 (2.75*4*1.818)
3 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra: 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 15
2 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra: 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 10
1 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra: 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 5
Sum of damage: 50
Analysis:
Considering the one-level difference between the Drudge and the Raider, it seems like a balance point assumed would be that one mob and 4 equal-level minions (in the same basic role) should do equivalent damage while alive. Note, though, that the minions survive for less time. Thus, minions are an option to 'front-load' damage.
This is of course completely neglecting the tactical situation, which is actually advantageous to the Minions. If all four Minions are attacking Kathra, Combat Advantage should be granted which is not detailed in the above stats. That can be considered an offsetting advantage against the disadvantage Minions face against AoE attacks.
I can do a more rigorous model on request. If not, I will now focus my attention on Skamos vs. these same Orcs.
percentage chance to hit ~= percentage of minions targeted that are killed
I think the point above about minions being a different type of ablation needs to be be reiterated. Also, the math regarding 'taking 4 MMs to take down a level 1 mob vs. taking 1 MM to take down a level 1 minion' is very relevant. Is it not a 4:1 Minion:Mob ratio?
I will be looking at the Orc Mobs and develop a model for discussing the actual difference between using 1 mob and 4 minions in this post later. One point that is brutally clear from even a cursory inspection is that 4 minions that have a chance to hit within about 10% of the mob they stem from should do quite a bit more damage against single-target strikes. But I will develop the model and then return to discuss.
Edit: All right, I did a 'quick-and-dirty' analysis on Kathra vs. Orcs. Some data:
Kathra average at-will damage vs. Orc Raider: 5.475 (please note, that this is per swing, not per hit.
Expected number of swings to kill Orc Raider: 8.4016 (hp/avg. dmg. per swing)
Kathra hit chance vs. Orc Drudge: 0.55
Expected number of swings to kill Orc Drudge: 1.818
Orc Raider average damage vs. Kathra: 5.35 (again, per swing and not per hit)
Time alive vs. Kathra: 8.4016 swings
Damage dealt in time alive: 44.95 damage
Orc Drudge average damage vs. Kathra: 2.75
4 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra (that is, time until 4 Orc Drudges are not alive vs. Kathra): 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 20 (2.75*4*1.818)
3 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra: 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 15
2 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra: 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 10
1 Orc Drudge Time alive vs. Kathra: 1.818 rounds
Damage dealt in time alive: 5
Sum of damage: 50
Analysis:
Considering the one-level difference between the Drudge and the Raider, it seems like a balance point assumed would be that one mob and 4 equal-level minions (in the same basic role) should do equivalent damage while alive. Note, though, that the minions survive for less time. Thus, minions are an option to 'front-load' damage.
This is of course completely neglecting the tactical situation, which is actually advantageous to the Minions. If all four Minions are attacking Kathra, Combat Advantage should be granted which is not detailed in the above stats. That can be considered an offsetting advantage against the disadvantage Minions face against AoE attacks.
I can do a more rigorous model on request. If not, I will now focus my attention on Skamos vs. these same Orcs.
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