SteveC
Doing the best imitation of myself
Sigh. Well it was a nice couple of days, wasn't it? In looking at the decisions that seem to be coming from WotC and the "you are either with us or against us," attitude, I think a lot of the parties involved should do some research into the Law of Unintended Consequences. Take a look at the book Freakonomics for a little better idea of what I'm talking about.
What has happened here, to my mind, is that WotC has managed to create a strong possibility for competition for their new game in the method they've chosen to use to shut competition down. What do I mean? Well, by saying, "you're either with us or against us," and then defining that in extremely stark terms, they're making a lot of the OGL market become their competition because they'll have nowhere else to go. Will Green Ronin publish 4E? Almost certainly not at this point. Will Paizo? Will Mongoose? Will any number of excellent smaller publishers who do business in the different OGL systems? Nope.
Would all of these companies have made 4E products if the new GSL was merely a tweaked version of the OGL? I can't speak for them, but I'll speculate that they almost certainly would. Why? Because D&D is going to be successful! It's going to sell and people are going to play it, and you're going to have a market for your games!
If you have a company that produces, say, some True20 and M&M products, and they're selling for you, in addition to your D20 lines are you going to abandon them? Almost certainly not.
At this point, it is entirely in interest for one of the largest tier third party companies to make a competing product for 4E (such as Pathfinder) and to aggressively market this game to all of those third party companies to give them a niche. Would a game like this exist or really matter in the larger scheme of things if WotC hadn't made publishing an either/or decision? Almost certainly not. Will it now? I don't know, but it is in the interest of every current OGL publisher to make it matter, because it's their livelihood.
That's the unintended consequence: by trying to stifle "competition" (and I'm putting that in quotes because how much real competition is this to WotC?) they've given the key players every reason to compete with them. Or to try at least.
--Steve
What has happened here, to my mind, is that WotC has managed to create a strong possibility for competition for their new game in the method they've chosen to use to shut competition down. What do I mean? Well, by saying, "you're either with us or against us," and then defining that in extremely stark terms, they're making a lot of the OGL market become their competition because they'll have nowhere else to go. Will Green Ronin publish 4E? Almost certainly not at this point. Will Paizo? Will Mongoose? Will any number of excellent smaller publishers who do business in the different OGL systems? Nope.
Would all of these companies have made 4E products if the new GSL was merely a tweaked version of the OGL? I can't speak for them, but I'll speculate that they almost certainly would. Why? Because D&D is going to be successful! It's going to sell and people are going to play it, and you're going to have a market for your games!
If you have a company that produces, say, some True20 and M&M products, and they're selling for you, in addition to your D20 lines are you going to abandon them? Almost certainly not.
At this point, it is entirely in interest for one of the largest tier third party companies to make a competing product for 4E (such as Pathfinder) and to aggressively market this game to all of those third party companies to give them a niche. Would a game like this exist or really matter in the larger scheme of things if WotC hadn't made publishing an either/or decision? Almost certainly not. Will it now? I don't know, but it is in the interest of every current OGL publisher to make it matter, because it's their livelihood.
That's the unintended consequence: by trying to stifle "competition" (and I'm putting that in quotes because how much real competition is this to WotC?) they've given the key players every reason to compete with them. Or to try at least.
--Steve