D&D (2024) New leak looks real bad

[Ruin Explorer]

D&D Shorts has been accurate throughout this saga AFAIK so this is pretty concerning to me.

$30 subs? AI Dungeon Masters? If I heard this a year ago I'd dismiss it as ridiculous. Now? It's about par for the course.

Very late to the party here but, I don't think this is what is really to be termed a "leak", even if it's true, because it's just this:


Or rather the corporate equivalent.

For anyone who can't see it, it's the country-folk hobo song "Big Rock Candy Mountain", wherein hobos dream of a place which was literally made of candy, which they could visit. Just replace the hobos with people in suits, sitting around a boardroom, and this is Big Rock Candy Mountain all over.

None of these things will necessarily happen. The businesshobos at WotC wish they would though.

• AI DMing? I've been predicting they'll try for that since WotC announced the 3D VTT, whether it comes in in 2024 or 2028 or whenever and whether it's remotely a good experience for people who actually like RPGs is the question.

(My guess would be sooner rather than later, but no to good experience, but for people who can't get a DM, or are too antisocial for a normal group, or wanna play D&D more like a videogame - they exist btw - it'll be a boon.)

• Changing the game to make it easier to DM, and thus easier for an AI DM because more stuff is written down (like in 3.XE and 4E)? That's already started happening in the 1D&D playtest, I expect it'll continue but it might not. It's hard because they want 5E compatibility, and 5E is explicitly designed not to work that way.

• $30/per person per month is obviously a wild fantasy of the Big Rock Candy Mountain kind. There's virtually nothing digital apart that has fees like that, certainly nothing game-related excepts cheats/hacks. I do expect we'll see attempts to do price-rises on DDB though. Probably unjustifiable ones too because I don't think they'll really increase they value, they'll just hand out free junk and say they are.

• Getting rid of homebrew at lower tiers seems extremely unlikely. It's the sort of idea someone might kick around in a meeting, but it'd silly because you'd just lose subscribers - D&D literally doesn't work without homebrew in Beyond's terms, because homebrew include stuff very slight equipment/magic item variants, slight monster variants, and other stuff you routinely encounter.

 

[Greg Benage]

ITT people have different preferences. Should be good for another hundred pages.

 

[Haplo781]

Very late to the party here but, I don't think this is what is really to be termed a "leak", even if it's true, because it's just this:


Or rather the corporate equivalent.

For anyone who can't see it, it's the country-folk hobo song "Big Rock Candy Mountain", wherein hobos dream of a place which was literally made of candy, which they could visit. Just replace the hobos with people in suits, sitting around a boardroom, and this is Big Rock Candy Mountain all over.

None of these things will necessarily happen. The businesshobos at WotC wish they would though.

• AI DMing? I've been predicting they'll try for that since WotC announced the 3D VTT, whether it comes in in 2024 or 2028 or whenever and whether it's remotely a good experience for people who actually like RPGs is the question.

(My guess would be sooner rather than later, but no to good experience, but for people who can't get a DM, or are too antisocial for a normal group, or wanna play D&D more like a videogame - they exist btw - it'll be a boon.)

• Changing the game to make it easier to DM, and thus easier for an AI DM because more stuff is written down (like in 3.XE and 4E)? That's already started happening in the 1D&D playtest, I expect it'll continue but it might not. It's hard because they want 5E compatibility, and 5E is explicitly designed not to work that way.

• $30/per person per month is obviously a wild fantasy of the Big Rock Candy Mountain kind. There's virtually nothing digital apart that has fees like that, certainly nothing game-related excepts cheats/hacks. I do expect we'll see attempts to do price-rises on DDB though. Probably unjustifiable ones too because I don't think they'll really increase they value, they'll just hand out free junk and say they are.

• Getting rid of homebrew at lower tiers seems extremely unlikely. It's the sort of idea someone might kick around in a meeting, but it'd silly because you'd just lose subscribers - D&D literally doesn't work without homebrew in Beyond's terms, because homebrew include stuff very slight equipment/magic item variants, slight monster variants, and other stuff you routinely encounter.

Know what else sounded like C-suite blue sky fantasy?

Killing the OGL.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

This would have been a much better plan under 4E, where theater of the mind play was harder to pull off.

The funny thing is 4E was also kind of a bad design for a VTT, because of the sheer huge number of Immediate Actions, Interrupts, and Reactions that you at higher levels, which is stuff that's very difficult to automate in a VTT (or a videogame, note) without it becoming kind of annoying. There are a lot of other issues too of a more minor nature.

However, certainly 3.XE would have been a lot better, and slightly altered 4E would also have worked well - indeed I expect if their VTT plans for 4E had gone, well, we'd have seen 4E move in that direction with a different 4.5E or the like.

5E is a bad starting point for two reasons:

1) It's not very dependent on a grid/map to play. I feel it actually plays better TtoM than with a grid, but either way, it doesn't need it.

2) It is very DM-dependent, in that the role of the DM was vastly and intentionally expanded over 3.XE/4E, and a lot of rules were "vague on purpose", which has been a mixed bag for the game, but has at least avoided the insane proliferation of rules that 3.XE and PF particularly had.

But it looks like 1D&D wants to decrease 2, which will, in practice, make D&D easier to DM for newer DMs, and easier to get more automated in a VTT (and easier for an AI to DM), at the cost of making D&D less flexible and perhaps less broadly appealing. But the Age of the Apology Edition is over; the Age of the Cashgrab has begun. The sort of people who enjoy flexibility can all go hang, because we don't give WotC enough dollar bills y'all.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Know what else sounded like C-suite blue sky fantasy?

Killing the OGL.

True, but that can't be an excuse for every sort of catastrophizing.

"Oh, I sound ridiculous for saying that WotC is hiring mercenaries to set fire to everyone's third party books? You know what else sounded ridiculous? Killing the OGL."

 

[Ruin Explorer]

Know what else sounded like C-suite blue sky fantasy?

Killing the OGL.

Sure, and how's that working out for them?

It doesn't seem to be working great or as intended at all.

It looks like their current realistic "best case" with the OGL is they say the OGL 1.0a no longer exists, basically no-one signs on the OGL 2.0, and people just make unlicenced or alternative-licence D&D materials with no legal safeharbour from WotC, but know WotC is way too chicken to actually sue them, because WotC has far, far, far more to lose in a court (including potentially dropping stock prices!) than some company that makes $2m/year.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned, to be clear. I'm saying this is more "wild flights of fancy" than "realistic battleplans".

 

[FormerLurker]

That we know of.

You need to finish putting on your tinfoil hat before you make statements like that...

 

[FormerLurker]

A month ago we didn't think Wizards would be dumb enough to try to revoke the OGL.

So they might actually be dumb enough to move to online only books that they can disappear when they feel like it. A month ago I would have called that kind of thinking dumb as heck, but revoking the OGL is even dumber than that so why not?

Will never happen.
Too many people play offline. It would eliminate schools, libraries, game stores, troops playing overseas, conventions, etc. Kids under 13 would need their parent's permission, and most kids under 18yo won't have credit cards. And they're a huge audience.

People worried about the same thing when the VTT and DDI was announced for 4e, and yet wave after wave of book was still released.

They might hope most players will switch to online characters sheets and using an iPad at the table to track their character. Or pay and play on a VTT. But they have to know the bulk of their money will come from book sales.

 

[Dausuul]

True, but that can't be an excuse for every sort of catastrophizing.

"Oh, I sound ridiculous for saying that WotC is hiring mercenaries to set fire to everyone's third party books? You know what else sounded ridiculous? Killing the OGL."

You just had to say that, didn't you?

Excuse me, I have to go install land mines in my bookshelf.

 

[Parmandur]

Will never happen.
Too many people play offline. It would eliminate schools, libraries, game stores, troops playing overseas, conventions, etc. Kids under 13 would need their parent's permission, and most kids under 18yo won't have credit cards. And they're a huge audience.

People worried about the same thing when the VTT and DDI was announced for 4e, and yet wave after wave of book was still released.

They might hope most players will switch to online characters sheets and using an iPad at the table to track their character. Or pay and play on a VTT. But they have to know the bulk of their money will come from book sales.

I mean, they mostly seem to be expecting most of their sales to come from plushies and action figures.