I appreciate the help people have offered with how to pull off the scenario. That circulade is really an interesting design, I may need to use that later.
My own solution was just to beef the Orcs up to level 3 average and give them better weapons. The slaughter went as planned with only one Orc killed to provide a clue as to where the attackers came from. To clarify what had me confused I'll just go over the scenario I actually put together.
The village contained six houses, one inn/tavern and ten dogs, 1 for every 5 commoners. The houses are relatively close together and built around livestock pens and a barn (Which was built over a spring to supply water in the event of a siege) to hold livestock at night. The village lies in a semi-contested area where Orcish raids take place perhaps three-four times a year so the village had what I considered reasonable defenses: A rammed Earth Wall surrounded the entire village and was covered in pongi sticks*. There are two gates built of heavy timber 20 feet through the wall.
Two watchmen walk around the inner perimeter continually, each with one dog along for the march. These commoners who are watchmen were in the King's army and each have either alertness or skill focus on listen and thus tend to have a Spot/Listen score of +6-7. All the commoners will have the one weapon they are proficient in available near their bed in case of an attack.
*A real-life houseruled-in trap. Basically just a really pointy thin spike of wood, usually it's been dipped in something horrible like excrement and causes a nasty infection when it stabs you. Climbing an earthen wall covered with Pongi Sticks requires a DC 15 Reflex save each turn you're on the wall to avoid getting stuck for d4 damage and a 1-in-4 chance of getting a disease.
The problem I have with a lot of the Orc tactics proposed is that they seem to make the same assumption I do, that orcs are screwed against commoners at 2:1 odds unless they are given some advantage. Commers staying in bed translates as "The Orcs have to be given this special advantage or they lose." Saying half the commoners run (Which seems counter-RAW to me since they'll have better Charisma, and hence leadership, than the Orcs do and a slightly better intimidate score), or half the commoners are combat incapable, says the same thing. The Orcs have to be given this special tactical advantage or benefit or fifty commoners and ten dogs kill two dozen orc warriors.
I would give them a rank or two in Knowledge (tactics), but the commander would have more, and a higher Int score, too, to go with his higher Charisma.
