Holy crap. How well does it need to do? Third best of all time isn’t good enough. What it’s not a success if it doesn’t do better than the one before it? Talk about goal posts on roller skates.
Figure thrown about is a billion dollar expectation.
It's break even point is somewhere probably around 600-700 million but could be close to 800 million.
If they "only" make a billion their profit is a couple of hundred million minus tax. Possibly less.
They get about 60% of the box office on average, less in foreign markets. The problem being they've probably spent 250+ million to make it, and 100 million+ on marketing and that's probably conservative on the marketing.
Note they made 700 million on TFA on 2 billion dollars. TLJ made 1.3 billion but it hits their profit. TLJ had a big drop off week 2, their movie got less than TLJ opening weekend.
If they've spent more like 400+ million on 1 billion they make "only" 200 million. And some estimates of the movie costs are higher than 400 million.
Movie might bomb if they get much lower than a billion or come close to it.
If the movie drops 25-30% week that's good. If it drops 70% that's bad and yeah could be interesting.
3 numbers
They get about 60% if the box office
Break even is roughly double the movie+ marketing costs. Usually slightly less.
60% of the box office is first 2 weeks.
We'll have a rough idea how well the movie will do by looking at the drop off this week and maybe one after it.