[OT] Counting cards. What is it?

[Heretic Apostate]

I'd like to start off by saying I don't gamble. However, in recent months, I've seen several references to "counting cards" in reference to I think it's blackjack. For instance, in Spin City, Paul and Mike save a fubar'ed raffle by trying to count cards in a casino. Then in a first season CSI run on cable, Warrick tells newbie Sara that he counts cards in his head. And I seem to remember that in Rain Man, the autistic counted cards.

So what the heck is it? And why is it illegal? Don't casinos run enough scams on their own? (Okay, so I've only got anecdotal evidence on the latter point. )

I'd appreciate having my curiosity satisfied.

 

[Skarp Hedin]

I myself can't count cards at all. However, I did know a guy in grad school who was paying for his room and board at school by blackjack winnings, and he was still there, so it seems it can be done well, hah.

Essentially, it's a method of tracking cards by assigning them some sort of modifier to a running total in your head. There are various systems, but the one he told me about involved, I believe, assigning each card as you see it a number from +7 to -7. Or maybe it was +/- 3. Either way, you kept track of the total running, and that way you had a pretty good idea of the proportion of helpful to harmful cards left running. It's more complex than that, and requires constant vigilance and all, but if you're good at it, you get a big advantage in your betting.

It's not illegal, but it's certainly against the rules. Meaning, casinos will throw you out if they catch you or begin to strongly suspect you. They'll also take your picture to other casinos and tell them about it, sometimes. Or, they just restrict you in what sort of blackjack you're allowed to play -- the fellow I knew quit going to one place because they told him he'd have to stick to 6 deck blackjack and couldn't play 2 deck or 4 deck anymore -- and the logisitics of keeping the count running and when there are 6 or more decks of cards is too difficult, since there are just so many cards still in the deck at any time.

I'm sure someone'll be able to answer better than that, but that's what Bob told me. Bob the Canon Law major.

 

[Bran Blackbyrd]

I've heard of this before. Some people can actually keep track of what cards have already been used and what is still in the deck and know the odds of on which card will show up if another card is showing, etc...

A well known mentalist, The Amazing Kreskin, is apparently not allowed in casinos because he is so good at this sort of thing.

The Amazing Kreskin

He can pull off some pretty amazing stunts. I don't think he really tries to promote himself as psychic or telepathic or anything, he just seems to be uncannily observant.

Maybe I should be more observant myself. Darn that ADD.

 

[Cedric]

In Blackjack the players odds of winning increase if the ratio of cards with a value of 10 (10's and face cards) are higher in the deck then normal.

So if you can keep a fairly accurate track of the number of face cards and 10's that have been played, compared to the number of lower value cards...you can gain a moderately significant edge over the house.

The largest edge can be gained by just gambling at the right place though. As a general rule...

"The Strip" in Las Vegas has the most favorable odds in blackjack. Just because the game is played all over the world doesn't mean they use the same rules everywhere. Those used on The Strip are more favorable to the players then the rules used anywhere else in the world. Examples of the player friendly rules include how many times you can split matched cards. Allowed double downs on any two cards. Dealer staying on soft 17. Allowing multiple splits of aces. Allowing double downs after splits...etc.

The fewer number of decks you are playing with the better. The average blackjack table will be playing with 5-6 decks at any one time. Those will be kept in a large 'shoe' and dealt out until only about a deck and a half remain, then they are shuffled. This serves the house in that it shortens the odds (you wouldn't think so, but it does, trust me). You cannot affectively count into a large deck shoe, there are just too many cards in it. You have to shuffle less often so more bets are placed per hour.

Contrary to popular belief, counting cards is not illegal and cannot get you arrested. However, casinos can also refuse any bet from any player. Pit bosses, in charge of small sections of casinos, will fastidiously keep an eye out on card counters. If they are making meager earnings...they are ignored. But if they are too obvious in their methods (such as often placing larger bets later in 1-2 deck games, but other times laying off of their bets when late in a 1-2 deck game while winning more often then not) they will be asked to leave. If they become a nuisance, the casino can and will share the info with their neighboring casinos in hopes of receiving player info in return.

A skilled card counter, playing in single deck blackjack, by Las Vegas Strip rules enjoys a very small percentage over the house...this is the one of only two ways (that I know of) to get an advantage over the house in a casino without cheating.

Cedric

 

[Heretic Apostate]

In the episode of Spin City I saw, the casino took away all their winnings (and possibly their stake money?). Are casinos allowed to do that? I can understand if casinos refuse to take a bet, but once they've accepted the bet, once the player has the chance of losing, I can't see how it's fair for the casino to just retroactively refuse bets. After all, they don't retroactively refuse bets if the player is losing...

Which is one reason I don't gamble: I know the house always wins, in the long run.

 

[Cedric]

To my knowledge their is nowhere where the house is allowed to take back your winnings for card counting. It may not be in line with their policies to count cards, but it's also not against any laws.

In fact, in Atlantic City, it is against the law for the Casino to refuse your bet for card counting. As long as you are not being a menace, violating other rules or creating a public disturbance...you cannot be asked or forced to stop betting just because you are card counting. Of course, Atlantic City makes back the losses from card counters by having more rigid blackjack rules that favor the house more.

Actually, the house is almost always very, very polite with card conters. They'll have a pit boss come over and quietly invite you to the side. He will usually make it clear that they enjoy your patronage, but require you to discontinue your blackjack play. Then point out that the house has many other table games of which you can take advantage, just not blackjack. Craps and Baccarat are the only other games that offer odds close to what you can get in Strip Rules Blackjack though...and even at the best odds for those games the house still has the advantage.

Whereas again, a good card counter enjoys about a 1-1.5 percent advantage over the house. Of course, if you play to that full advantage, you'll be spotted pretty quickly...back it off to a 0.5 advantage with sloppy play and you'll be fine if you are smooth.

Cedric

 

[Dubya]

Brining down the house

What the others have said about counting cards is pretty accurate. If you like non-fiction books I would highly recommend Brining down the house, by Ben Mezrich. It is an intersting book and a very fast read. Here is a review from publihers weekly.

"Shy, geeky, amiable" MIT grad Kevin Lewis, was, Mezrich learns at a party, living a double life winning huge sums of cash in Las Vegas casinos. In 1993 when Lewis was 20 years old and feeling aimless, he was invited to join the MIT Blackjack Team, organized by a former math instructor, who said, "Blackjack is beatable." Expanding on the "hi-lo" card-counting techniques popularized by Edward Thorp in his 1962 book, Beat the Dealer, the MIT group's more advanced team strategies were legal, yet frowned upon by casinos. Backed by anonymous investors, team members checked into Vegas hotels under assumed names and, pretending not to know each other, communicated in the casinos with gestures and card-count code words. Taking advantage of the statistical nature of blackjack, the team raked in millions before casinos caught on and pursued them. In his first nonfiction foray, novelist Mezrich (Reaper, etc.), telling the tale primarily from Kevin's point of view, manages to milk that threat for a degree of suspense. But the tension is undercut by the first-draft feel of his pedestrian prose, alternating between irrelevant details and heightened melodrama. In a closing essay, Lewis details the intricacies of card counting.

Dubya

 

[RangerWickett]

I have a friend who's a business major who claims he knows how to make money at gambling without requiring any real skill.

1. First, bring $2560 to a casino. Your goal is to win $5 per hour.

2. Go to a cheap table for blackjack, bet $5. If you win, you've made your $5. If you lose, see step 3.

3. Bet $10. If you win, you've netted $5. If you lose, see step 4.

4. Bet $20. If you win, you've netted $5 (-5, -10, +20). If you lose, see step 5.

5. Go to a slightly more expensive table, bet $40. If you win, you've netted $5. If you lose, keep up this doubling progression up until you end up betting $2560 in hopes of netting $5. Bear in mind, this might be going a bit too far. However, odds are good you'll win at least one hand of blackjack out of ten.


Does that strategy make sense to you?

 

[Chaldfont]

I'll second the recommendation to read Mezrich's book. Its great. It, along with some other sources of inspiration (Lucky on F/X, World Poker Tour, and Rounders) would be great for a D20 Modern game involving high stakes gambling, con artists, and organized crime.

 

[d20Dwarf]

Three things.....

That is the worst gambling strategy I've ever heard. Please tell me you are just trolling.

Being a business major doens't make you smart, in fact I might argue the opposite.

Business and game theory are not the same field.