D&D 5E Prediction: No OGL until at least May if not later

[machineelf]

Here are my poorly informed musings. WOTC doesn't want to release an OGL right now because they know there will be an instant release of several (very good) adventure paths and modules. That would hurt the bottom line of their third party produced adventure paths and other products (like the spell cards). They probably won't release an OGL until after the Elemental Evil adventure path is released and has time to sell. Then maybe they will release an OGL. That would put it around May at the earliest.

I don't really know what I am talking about. Questions, thoughts?

 

[painted_klown]

Please forgive my ignorance, but how/why would an OGL reduce sales of products like the spell cards?

I can understand players buying different adventure paths/modules, if they thought they would be better than the official ones, but I would think items like the spell cards, DM screen, etc would still be viable either way.

Am I not connecting the right dots here?

 

[Staffan]

Because, assuming they do things exactly like 3.5e (put all the rules in a freely available SRD), spell cards are one of the easiest things to do as a third-party publisher, since you don't need to add any content of your own, just presentation.

 

[machineelf]

Well It may be my ignorance, but I was presuming that the spells would be part of the OGL, and therefore someone or a company could produce competing spell cards (perhaps on poker cardplaying plastic material that would be more durable than the laminated cardstock on the current spell cards). That could directly compete with GF9. Again though, I could be missing something or not be quite correct with my assumptions.

 

[Nellisir]

WotC has market penetration and brand recognition no other company can match. Third-party products are not a threat to WotC's revenue, and the big name RPG companies (Paizo, White Wolf) aren't going to leap into 5e anytime soon. It's hard enough to find D&D on store shelves; you're not going to find something that a lot of people view as knock-off products, and a lot of game store owners remember the d20 product glut.

 

[Morrus]

Nobody's going to release anything under an OGL that WotC's bottom line will even notice. Never have before, and certainly won't now (Pathfinder being a perfect storm of a lot of factors and not something repeatable).

Only Paizo could, and they're more interested in building their own brand than in supporting WotC's.

 

[machineelf]

Third-party products are not a threat to WotC's revenue ...

I wasn't saying so much that third-party products are a threat to WOTC's revenue. I was saying that WOTC wants to protect the third party companies it has contracted out merchandise to. It might even be written into contracts that WOTC won't release an OGL until after these products (like the official adventure paths) have sufficient time to sell.

Who wants to be a Sasquatch Studios, work really hard on an adventure path, and then have WOTC release an OGL just as your adventure path goes out to bookstores. You'd loose a certain percentage of business if they released the OGL at that moment.

 

[machineelf]

Nobody's going to release anything under an OGL that WotC's bottom line will even notice.

Let me clarify here too. I'm not saying anything about WOTC's bottom line. I'm talking about the bottom line of Kobold Press and Sasquatch Studios. WOTC doesn't want to hurt those studios' bottom line by having them produce APs and then turn around right away and release the OGL. They might have even told them, "Don't worry guys. You'll have time to sell the products before we get around to releasing an OGL."

Releasing an OGL won't hurt their bottom line tremendously, but since they are small studios, even a small percentage loss in sales would be felt.

So basically, I am saying that I don't see WOTC issuing an OGL until after Sasquatch Studios books have had two or three months to be out on shelves, at least.

 

[painted_klown]

Interesting points & counterpoints here all. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Having not been around for everything that has transpired with previous editions, I find this stuff to be highly fascinating.

 

[Jester David]

I can imagine them releasing details of the OGL earlier in 2015 but not actually releasing the licence until later, to give people maximum amount of time to polish product and conform to the guidelines. The more time people spend absorbing the rules, the better the finished products end up.
Plus, more time to get the higher ups to sign off on the policy, which is likely very time intensive.