D&D 5E Predictions for D&D 2024?

[DEFCON 1]

Prediction: At least half of the players who say they aren't going to buy the 5E24 books probably end up doing so anyway, since everyone else keeps talking about the new rules and fixes and they come to the conclusion most of those rules fixes and changes are actually pretty good and so why not have them all in one place?

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

My fear is the translations to be stopped. In the future I could buy Van Ritchen and Fizban's guides, but I don't hurry at all.

I am interested into the bastion base-building rules, but why to buy a DM Guide again? It is not ten years ago. I had to await the translated edition, and for a time it stopped because there was a change in the translators team. And even if I wanted, where I live I can't buy the English-languange editions.

We could see a cartoon of "Hero Quest", the veteran master of dungeon-crawler board games.

LEGO D&D is possible, and maybe a future collab in Fortnite.

Even in the worst case D&D will survive because now it is a too potentially valious brand.

We are going to see D&D parodies, but this will be not wrong, because the main goal is the fun.

I bet for a rewritte of the "survivor classes", designed for fast creations in horror adventures.

 

[Stormonu]

I am 99% sure the v2014 books become legacy content as soon as the new books hit the floor.

And if you don't have them and still want them, right now there are one sale of them after the other on D&D beyond.

So how is that scandalous in any way?

I still have my Volo's Guide available in Beyond, I can still even add the monsters to encounters and I think I can build something like a Tabaxi using the Volo's (legacy) rules instead of the Mord's newer rules.

What I am talking about is a shift in usability on Beyond. When the 2024 books first hit, the 2014 books will be made Legacy content, but I expect I will still be able to build characters using the 2014 versions of the classes. At some point later in the year, I expect the 2024 sales to slow at a point that Wizards tries to pull being able to build characters with the 2014 rules (instead of the 2024 rules) to push 2024 sales, and that they get pushback from the community to keep the ability to build PCs with 2014 options - if you bought said books before 2024.

Not a scandal, just disgruntlement - Grognards: "we want our old stuff to keep working", WotC: "Buy our new stuff!".

<EDIT> Oh, I see I stated the 2014 actually vanishing off Beyond as well. If v2024 tanks badly enough I could see that occurring as a reactionary measure to try and push the new books, so I figured I'd put it in as a "worst case scenario". But it'd be a slimy, desperate and dumb move that'd get a lot of grief. Something right up a crappy money-grubbing corporation would do. We'll see if WotC/Hasbro gets that desperate (cough continued poor earning for Hasbro cough).

 

[UngeheuerLich]

I still have my Volo's Guide available in Beyond, I can still even add the monsters to encounters and I think I can build something like a Tabaxi using the Volo's (legacy) rules instead of the Mord's newer rules.

What I am talking about is a shift in usability on Beyond. When the 2024 books first hit, the 2014 books will be made Legacy content, but I expect I will still be able to build characters using the 2014 versions of the classes. At some point later in the year, I expect the 2024 sales to slow at a point that Wizards tries to pull being able to build characters with the 2014 rules (instead of the 2024 rules) to push 2024 sales, and that they get pushback from the community to keep the ability to build PCs with 2014 options - if you bought said books before 2024.

Not a scandal, just disgruntlement - Grognards: "we want our old stuff to keep working", WotC: "Buy our new stuff!".

<EDIT> Oh, I see I stated the 2014 actually vanishing off Beyond as well. If v2024 tanks badly enough I could see that occurring as a reactionary measure to try and push the new books, so I figured I'd put it in as a "worst case scenario". But it'd be a slimy, desperate and dumb move that'd get a lot of grief. Something right up a crappy money-grubbing corporation would do. We'll see if WotC/Hasbro gets that desperate (cough continued poor earning for Hasbro cough).

I think you dream something up that has no precedent. They have always allowed you to use your old content using the legacy versions. Taking away the PHB would effectively mean you can't use D&D beyond anyomore. And this would drive people away rather than boosting sales.

They are also adamant in stating that they build the 2024 game that you could use both versions going forward.

Sorry. That is a too pessimistic view and it just makes no sense at all.
Scrapping the OGL at least made some sense from a certain point of view... this does just not.

 

[bedir than]

LEGO D&D is possible, and maybe a future collab in Fortnite.

The LEGO D&D set should be releasing this year. It's basically an adventure in a box with a tavern, castle, dungeon and dragon.

 

[MockingBird]

I think 5e24 sales will be fine. The 5e14 PHB will stop being printed and the new PHB will just slide into its place going g forward. DDB, I feel, will allow for legacy content. I highly doubt WotC takes that away from DDB. You will probably even be allowed to buy the new PHB piecemeal like character classes and such if you just want to supplement your old PHB material.

 

[Mercurius]

I kind of agree with the gist of @Stormonu's post, if perhaps with a slightly different take. I think D&D peaked c. 2021-22 and is slipping just a bit. I mean, it was inevitable - the huge spike from 2017-21ish was unexpected by everyone. WotC had designs on taking it further and turning "D&D" into a massive multimedia empire, which may be true to some extent - but I think we're talking more Carthage than Rome. The movie was solid and did OK, but didn't have "This is the next MCU" phenom that they might have hoped it would be. Maybe the show will push things forward, but it may be that due to significant market saturation of fantasy stuff and the fact that "D&D" simply might not be quite as marketable as "Marvel," I think they will fall a bit short from the most optimistic projections.

But D&D will continue to do very well, but I think we'll see some peeling off of more casual players and a consolidation at a lower level than the past few years. The bubble has popped, though it will reveal a much larger core than we've ever seen. So sort of something like this:

 

[Mercurius]

And here's Part 2:

 

[Parmandur]

Big thing I haven't seen anyone here mwntion: in 2024 I predict that we will see the older edition SRDs get releases.

As to the success of the new Core books...I think they are going to sell like hotcakes, and continue to do so.

 

[Stormonu]

I think you dream something up that has no precedent. They have always allowed you to use your old content using the legacy versions. Taking away the PHB would effectively mean you can't use D&D beyond anyomore. And this would drive people away rather than boosting sales.

They are also adamant in stating that they build the 2024 game that you could use both versions going forward.

Sorry. That is a too pessimistic view and it just makes no sense at all.
Scrapping the OGL at least made some sense from a certain point of view... this does just not.

It does has precedent, it was done with 4E's online tools and the 3E tools. At some point, the 2014 books will no longer be usable with the builder.