What's more interesting to me is the hoops that people will jump through to try and argue that a player affecting the direction of the game can't possibly be plausible or logical or "simulationist" or whatever, even when - for instance - the likelihood of their character's conjectures being true directly tracks their character's degree of knowledge (as established by character build elements).I don't think it is practical, possible or even desirable to have a RPG where the GM doesn't to some degree make decisions that affect the direction of the game. It is just about under what sort of principles the GM operates when making those decisions.
Yes. That's the point. If they didn't, then there would be no point having Cunning Expert be a thing, as there would be no way of representing the likelihood of an expert's conjecture being true.But what the mechanics do, is cause the player's conjecture to be right.
Obviously.That is not what happens in the fiction
There is no "disconnect" that is any different. I mean, we could have a RPG where the GM describes the bodily movements the Orc is making, and the player has to then describe their PC's bodily movements, and the GM adjudicates whether the PC has properly responded to the Orc's feint, footwork, parry, etc. But in most RPGs, instead the player just rolls a d20 and the success of their roll determines all these other facts about what the Orc does, how accurately their PC anticipates the Orc's bodily movements, etc.that's why there is a disconnect between the player and character decision space. That is why it is completely different than killing orcs and whatnot.
The strange runes case has the same structure. It just treats time in a slightly different way - instead of anticipating the Orc, and that anticipation being correct because the PC is a skilled duelist who can predict their foe's movements, the PC anticipates what the runes will say when read, and that is correct because the PC is a Cunning Expert who knows what strange runes are likely to reveal.