Recap: Ryan Dancey's Predictions for 2007

[Delta]

I think it would be interesting to go back to a prominent analyst's predictions for 2007 and see how accurate they were. Over a year ago, Ryan Dancey posted 4 gaming-industry predictions for 2007 (starting off with specific predictions for the 6 biggest companbies).

See the link here: http://web.mac.com/rsdancey/RSDance.../9_Predictions:_2007:__The_Game_Industry.html

Which of these basically came true? Which didn't?

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

His WOTC prediction was pretty far off, as I read it. Otherwise ... couldn't tell you.

A) By the end of 2007, Wizards of the Coast will have reduced its game output to Dungeons & Dragons and a handful of other RPG products of little consequence, Magic: The Gathering, and the Star Wars Starship Battles game. All other games will either already be terminated, or the final releases in their lines will be in production or on sale. There will be nothing in the hopper either. WotC will be preparing to attempt to ride a small number of horses extra hard to meet the demands of corporate parent Hasbro for the next few years.

Certainly the "nothing in the hopper" is wrong, since 4E certainly isn't a small thing. Though you could perhaps give him credit for predicting the final release of 3.5 (except he doesn't actually say that). He missed the continued growth of DDM.

 

[Fallen Seraph]

His WW prediction is also very off.

The MMORPG is at the back-burner at the most and their PnPs have been jumping off the shelves and doing extremely well. They are publishing more and more board games as well.

 

[MerricB]

Certainly the "nothing in the hopper" is wrong, since 4E certainly isn't a small thing. Though you could perhaps give him credit for predicting the final release of 3.5 (except he doesn't actually say that). He missed the continued growth of DDM.

No, it's actually fairly accurate. 4e is big, but it's just D&D: it isn't anything new. It'll probably do good things for Wizards, but they aren't really expanding much elsewise.

Wizards are primarily now producing only a handful of products:
* Magic (trending downwards)
* D&D RPG
* Star Wars RPG (little consequence)
* D&D Minis
* Star Wars Minis
* Heroscape (moved over from Hasbro)
* D&D Novels
* Axis & Allies Minis.

The one dark horse in all of this is Gleemax, but it has been a PR disaster so far for Wizards.

Name the big new releases of Wizards in 2007!
* Star Wars Saga edition (minor release - look, I like it, but it's nowhere near D&D)
* Transformers 3d battlecard game (fad release... can't see this one surviving).

Cheers!

 

[Darrin Drader]

No, it's actually fairly accurate. 4e is big, but it's just D&D: it isn't anything new. It'll probably do good things for Wizards, but they aren't really expanding much elsewise.

4E really has the potential to be very good to WotC, or be the nail in the coffin. I'm hoping for the former and not the latter. If we see 4E fail, it's entirely possible that Hasbro will just mothball the brand and let it sit dormant for several years rather than selling it off. They can later come back with a Hasbro produced version of D&D that looks and acts more like a board game, but plays on the outcry of a market that has dwindled to almost nothing. If it succeeds then the question will be whether we're talking 3E level of success or something that is simply better than their current level, which (absolute wild speculation) isn't enough for it to be a sustainable Hasbro brand.

 

[Glyfair]

Otherwise ... couldn't tell you.

1B) Upper Deck laid off quite a number of people who were working on their RPG games. So, he's sort of right (the move into RPGs never saw any products, but the layoffs were there as predicted).

1C) Hasn't come true, and GW seems to be making a mild recovery. Of course, since 2008 they have closed their boardgame/RPG company. This could be read either way regarding the longterm health of the company.

1D) As far as we know this hasn't happened (unless it has been behind the scenes). From where I sit I think they haven't really grown in the past year. However, they do seem to be experimenting this year (even dipping into the CMG market).

1E) Hasn't happened. Right now Heroclix is doing very well. I think their Pocketmodel games are doing OK as well (Star Wars, Pirates), but I'm not certain. Mechwarrior is pretty much withering.

1F) Hasn't happened.

2) Hasbro has picked up a number of hobby games from "Out of the Box" games.

 

[thalmin]

For the record, WotC (through the Avalon Hill brand) has 2 classic board games coming in the next few months. Diplomacy is scheduled for March 14, and Acquire for June 13.

 

[Turjan]

For the record, WotC (through the Avalon Hill brand) has 2 classic board games coming in the next few months. Diplomacy is scheduled for March 14, and Acquire for June 13.

That's true, but they ceased production on nearly all their other AH games, like RoboRally, Nexus Ops, or Vegas Showdown. There's hardly anything left.

 

[thalmin]

Robo Rally is discontinued? I just got in a copy, and it is on the reorder list I received from WotC yesterday. The others are gone, though. Just RR, the various A&A titles, and the 2 Risk games remain.

Sorry for the derailing.

 

[Ed_Laprade]

His predictions were for 2007. So why are most of the replies talking about what's going on in 2008?