Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

gss000

Villager
That two get one free sell is lighting up D&D and Pathfinder.
I thought there might be a black Friday sale that is lifting all games. Cthulu also has some ones on the list.

Looking at the week of Amazon sales numbers, this sale got Pathfinder out of the #4000 to 5000 "channel" it's been stuck in for a few weeks into the 2900 to 3500 ranks. To me, the next question is whether it can maintain this bump after the holidays pr when this sale ends.

I'm wondering when there will be enough outside data to start reporting numbers. I also expected something from Paizo touting 3rd quarter sales with the new edition, but I can't find anything official.
 

Parmandur

Legend
I thought there might be a black Friday sale that is lifting all games. Cthulu also has some ones on the list.

Looking at the week of Amazon sales numbers, this sale got Pathfinder out of the #4000 to 5000 "channel" it's been stuck in for a few weeks into the 2900 to 3500 ranks. To me, the next question is whether it can maintain this bump after the holidays pr when this sale ends.

I'm wondering when there will be enough outside data to start reporting numbers. I also expected something from Paizo touting 3rd quarter sales with the new edition, but I can't find anything official.
Signs point to there not being much to your in particular...
 

Mistwell

Legend
I thought there might be a black Friday sale that is lifting all games. Cthulu also has some ones on the list.

Looking at the week of Amazon sales numbers, this sale got Pathfinder out of the #4000 to 5000 "channel" it's been stuck in for a few weeks into the 2900 to 3500 ranks. To me, the next question is whether it can maintain this bump after the holidays pr when this sale ends.

I'm wondering when there will be enough outside data to start reporting numbers. I also expected something from Paizo touting 3rd quarter sales with the new edition, but I can't find anything official.
Back down to #4227 now.
 

gss000

Villager
Back down to #4227 now.
Putting rough numbers into a sales estimator, this would be a 10 to 12% drop in sales. I don't know enough to say whether that is a big deal to Paizo or not. Overall, since it seems we're at a little bit of a stable place, today's sales number is about 50% of where it was after launch when it was selling more than 5th ed for a very short time.

Recently, I've been looking at how 1st ed is still doing compared to 2nd as a way to gauge enthusiasm for switching to the new edition. Using the various rank trackers, it looks like the 1st ed core rulebook sales are 75% of the 2nd ed core rulebook. Compare that to 4th ed D&D, which is at 24% of 5th ed's sales. Looks to me like Paizo has an enthusiasm gap to work on, which I don't find surprising based on the Paizo's history of drawing in gamers who didn't want to change from 3rd ed D&D. Hopefully, the sales percentage drops or else the old edition could cannibalize the new edition's sales.

Caveat as always that Amazon data is proxy for overall sales since we don't have any knowledge of Paizo direct sales or overall hobby store sales.
 

Green Onceler

Explorer
Using the various rank trackers, it looks like the 1st ed core rulebook sales are 75% of the 2nd ed core rulebook. Compare that to 4th ed D&D, which is at 24% of 5th ed's sales. Looks to me like Paizo has an enthusiasm gap to work on
That's interesting. Do those 1e Core Rulebook sales include the Pocket Edition?

Completely anecdotally, I am noticing a distinct enthusiasm gap for the new edition in my immediate circles. I play with one group face to face here in Japan. It consists of 6 members, none of whom have bought any 2e product or show any interest in doing so. I also GM a diverse international group online. I am not sure if any of them have bought any product, but none seem interested in the new edition. It rarely gets brought up.

No negativity from me toward the new game. I'm sure the new game would be fun if I played. Just like 5e is fun when I play. But, I just have no interest in buying a whole new library of books when I am generally satisfied with my large existing P1 library. I'd rather buy Starfinder books than P2.
 

gss000

Villager
That's interesting. Do those 1e Core Rulebook sales include the Pocket Edition?
Thanks for the question. Actually, that was for the pocked edition only. The non-pocket version sells less than the pocket version. However, when you combine the two, 1st ed core versions sell about 15% more right now than 2nd ed core based on what Amazon sales rank to sales amount calculators say, assuming that is at least ballpark accurate.
 

jib916

Explorer
To be fair (and as mentioned before in the thread by multiple people) Amazon is a not the greatest gauge to estimate sales / interest in Pathfinder.

One of the reasons 5e is doing so well on amazon, is because it is the main outlet to purchase it online.

Want to buy a 5e book directly from WOTC? You can't. You can buy a PF2book from Paizo.com however, in fact you can get a subscription and have them ship you one every time they publish one.

What a digital, pdf copy of a 5e book (Not a online database, like Curse's DND Beyond)? You can't You can get all of the Pf1/Pf2 books in pdf from Paizo.com

I guess what I am saying is that if you are a Pathfinder/Paizo fan, there is a large chunk of the market that is buying them online direct instead of amazon, where for 5e , it is the main outlet of sales.
 

darjr

I crit!
No. This keeps coming up. 5e is ALSO just as available from other sources.

we’ve been down this road. We actually checked the number of forum users on Paizos site that were subscribers, subscribers used to get a badge, and amazon sales for Paizo 1st edition was many times higher than that for the core book. But yes, that’s an estimate and things could be different now. Amazon sales rank ALSO jives with other sources of “sales” or rankings.

And saying that Amazon is the main source for 5e is a claim that’ll need proof.
 
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teitan

Adventurer
Amazon also offers a deep discount that Paizo does not. Get the core book for 60 or for 45? Sometimes lower?

I think P2 will be a slow burn success myself.
 

gss000

Villager
To be fair (and as mentioned before in the thread by multiple people) Amazon is a not the greatest gauge to estimate sales / interest in Pathfinder.

One of the reasons 5e is doing so well on amazon, is because it is the main outlet to purchase it online.

Want to buy a 5e book directly from WOTC? You can't. You can buy a PF2book from Paizo.com however, in fact you can get a subscription and have them ship you one every time they publish one.

What a digital, pdf copy of a 5e book (Not a online database, like Curse's DND Beyond)? You can't You can get all of the Pf1/Pf2 books in pdf from Paizo.com

I guess what I am saying is that if you are a Pathfinder/Paizo fan, there is a large chunk of the market that is buying them online direct instead of amazon, where for 5e , it is the main outlet of sales.
Much of whart I've been posting is not about 5th ed vs Pathfinder. It's about using Amazon numbers as a proxy for understanding how well it's going overall. This is commonly done when you don't have direct information. I don't trust the numbers as a direct measure of sales. Instead what I can reasonably assume is that if there is a noticeable rise or drop in sales on Amazon, there may be something similar overall. It's not a direct 1 to 1 correlation. Amazon also is probably where a lot of newer and probably more casual gamers are buying their books, so it's also a proxy for how many new players are coming in.

So of course this is not the end all and be all of sales and may only capture a percentage, but we can still use it to try to suss out the health of the game in these early months.
 

Retreater

Adventurer
I had honestly forgotten that PF2 came out, even though I've purchased the books, made characters, etc.; but all that was months ago. I'd found no interest in it in my area, so I sort of filed it away under the "maybe I'll get to play it at a convention" Weird game category.
Maybe I can find a "pay to play" game online or something?
 

gss000

Villager
Thanks for the question. Actually, that was for the pocked edition only. The non-pocket version sells less than the pocket version. However, when you combine the two, 1st ed core versions sell about 15% more right now than 2nd ed core based on what Amazon sales rank to sales amount calculators say, assuming that is at least ballpark accurate.
In the link I posted above that tracks a week of Amazon sales, I saw that I also missed the 2nd ed special edition from my calc. So let's be completely fair and compare all the 2nd ed core versions that I can find so fare to all the 1st ed core.

As it should be, the numbers are much better. With big caveats, 2nd ed core is selling 15% more than 1st ed cores. The gap should widen over time if people wrap up campaigns and switch. Too slow a change, and 1st ed will take sales from 2nd, which will also hurt profits if they invest in a lot of 2nd ed book development that people aren't buying because they are focusing on 1st ed material, which is probably on a discount or on secondary markets. Time will tell.
 

Parmandur

Legend
In the link I posted above that tracks a week of Amazon sales, I saw that I also missed the 2nd ed special edition from my calc. So let's be completely fair and compare all the 2nd ed core versions that I can find so fare to all the 1st ed core.

As it should be, the numbers are much better. With big caveats, 2nd ed core is selling 15% more than 1st ed cores. The gap should widen over time if people wrap up campaigns and switch. Too slow a change, and 1st ed will take sales from 2nd, which will also hurt profits if they invest in a lot of 2nd ed book development that people aren't buying because they are focusing on 1st ed material, which is probably on a discount or on secondary markets. Time will tell.
Going off of Reddit chatter and VTT numbers, there's doesn't seem to be any urgent move to switch editions, by and large.
 

dave2008

Legend
I had honestly forgotten that PF2 came out, even though I've purchased the books, made characters, etc.; but all that was months ago. I'd found no interest in it in my area, so I sort of filed it away under the "maybe I'll get to play it at a convention" Weird game category.
Maybe I can find a "pay to play" game online or something?
I have a similar experience (though I didn't actually forget). I but the books and dived in, but haven't found a group to play with and my groups are not interested in switching. There just doesn't seem to be much push in my area (or on these forums really).

I do wonder, if a lot of 5e's success is driven by new players, I think a good portion may end up trying out other RPGs at some point. Does Pathfinder have the name presence / marketing to grab some of that market?
 

Parmandur

Legend
I have a similar experience (though I didn't actually forget). I but the books and dived in, but haven't found a group to play with and my groups are not interested in switching. There just doesn't seem to be much push in my area (or on these forums really).

I do wonder, if a lot of 5e's success is driven by new players, I think a good portion may end up trying out other RPGs at some point. Does Pathfinder have the name presence / marketing to grab some of that market?
I think that Call of Cthulhu has been benefiting from that recently. The issue for Pathfinder is, if someone wants a break from 5E with another RPG, is how similar the experience on offer ends up being. I don't forsee a large number of 5E players moving to PF2 rather than a more divergent game with an alternative feel and genre. That's the rock to the hard place of PF1 fans being entrenched in the old rules.
 

Retreater

Adventurer
I think that Call of Cthulhu has been benefiting from that recently. The issue for Pathfinder is, if someone wants a break from 5E with another RPG, is how similar the experience on offer ends up being. I don't forsee a large number of 5E players moving to PF2 rather than a more divergent game with an alternative feel and genre. That's the rock to the hard place of PF1 fans being entrenched in the old rules.
Very true. If we want a break from 5e, we play Cthulhu, Savage Rifts, City of Mists, etc.
It seems that trying to sell players on something that's basically the same experience as D&D (d20, class based, heroic fantasy) is a tall order.
 

Haffrung

Explorer
Paizo's subscription plans are their bread and butter. That's the primary metric they'll use to gauge the success of PF2. Of course, there's no reason for them to share that information.
 

dave2008

Legend
Paizo's subscription plans are their bread and butter. That's the primary metric they'll use to gauge the success of PF2. Of course, there's no reason for them to share that information.
Are you sure, other posters have claimed that their Amazon sales are much larger than their subscription / paizo site sales. I don't know how anyone without inside information would really know, but I don't think it is safe to assume one way or the other.

You have to remember that basically everyone that posts on this website (and online RPG forums/site in general) is an outlier and our perspectives are often not indicative of the general RPG population.
 

Shroomy

Adventurer
Are you sure, other posters have claimed that their Amazon sales are much larger than their subscription / paizo site sales. I don't know how anyone without inside information would really know, but I don't think it is safe to assume one way or the other.

You have to remember that basically everyone that posts on this website (and online RPG forums/site in general) is an outlier and our perspectives are often not indicative of the general RPG population.
I would think the subscriptions are a good indication of hardcore PF/Paizo fans while Amazon would be a good indicator of casual and/or new fans.
 

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