PF2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

Porridge

Villager
I've been using FREE Amazon Sales Estimator - Predict Your Sales | Rank Calculator to look at what the ranks mean. It surprising sometimes how big and how little a jump from its low of #6200 to a recent high of 1900 is. That's a 20% increase in monthly sales, if it continues. That's significant for a typically low margin industry. However, that is only 90 exrta books per month, if the calculator is correct.

For reference, 5th ed PHB at #30 earlier today is almost double that number of books per month, although this is also a recent high and probably won't last.
After poking around a bit, I found another estimator, TCK Publishing's Amazon Book Sales Calculator (using the sales per month entry) which yields significantly larger differences.

It puts D&D PHB sales at about 15-20 times those of the PF2 CRB, and PF2 Bestiary sales at about 40% of the PF2 CRB. (And it puts D&D Monster Manual sales at about 40% of the D&D PHB sales.)

But I have no idea which of these calculators is more reliable...
 

gss000

Villager
After poking around a bit, I found another estimator, TCK Publishing's Amazon Book Sales Calculator (using the sales per month entry) which yields significantly larger differences.

It puts D&D PHB sales at about 15-20 times those of the PF2 CRB, and PF2 Bestiary sales at about 40% of the PF2 CRB. (And it puts D&D Monster Manual sales at about 40% of the D&D PHB sales.)

But I have no idea which of these calculators is more reliable...
Thanks for that one! I completely agree on reliability questuon. If I had several of these calculators, I'd probably look at the range and average values to try and get a more trustworthy estimate. Unless there is a difference because of when the claculators were made or updated or some third party that rates them, it would be hard to know which calculator is more reliable.

It reminds me of marketing emails. Different sites will tell you different numbers for what is good or not. You can't just take one benchmark, but you look at them all and see how your situation relates.
 

BryonD

Adventurer
And after a solid week in the 2000s, it's finally broken the 2000 ceiling (with the PF2 CRB at #1984, and the PF2 Bestiary at #8892). No idea why.
And 24 hours later it is back under 4500. I really don't think all this means anything other than to imply that the method described recently upthread is more or less accurate (if not completely accurate). A big slug of sales (one would assume for some common end) spiked the place and that has rolled out of the scoring. (or, by the method, be discounted out of significance).

It is still crushing anything that isn't 5E, but IMO, remains way below where a PF tentpole could be.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Calculators are interesting bpeopke think books sell in the thousands if they have a high sales rank. I've suspected for a while outside the top ten the sales numbers are in the tens per day not hundreds or thousands.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
After poking around a bit, I found another estimator, TCK Publishing's Amazon Book Sales Calculator (using the sales per month entry) which yields significantly larger differences.

It puts D&D PHB sales at about 15-20 times those of the PF2 CRB, and PF2 Bestiary sales at about 40% of the PF2 CRB. (And it puts D&D Monster Manual sales at about 40% of the D&D PHB sales.)

But I have no idea which of these calculators is more reliable...
We have some numbers for the starter set. Obviously not all sales are on Amazon but they have sold 150k+ average per year in North America.
 

Porridge

Villager
And 24 hours later it is back under 4500. I really don't think all this means anything other than to imply that the method described recently upthread is more or less accurate (if not completely accurate). A big slug of sales (one would assume for some common end) spiked the place and that has rolled out of the scoring. (or, by the method, be discounted out of significance).

It is still crushing anything that isn't 5E, but IMO, remains way below where a PF tentpole could be.
I’ve been checking the D&D PHB rank along with the PF2 CRB rank, and I’ve found their movements to be pretty closely correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was in the 2000s the D&D PHB rank was around 30, when the PF2 CRB was in the low 5000s the D&D PHB rank was around 60, and now that the PF2 CRB is in the 4000s the D&D PHB rank is around 50.

This suggests that these short-term changes in rank have more to do with market forces on RPG sales in general than they do with the appeal of these particular games.
 

BryonD

Adventurer
I’ve been checking the D&D PHB rank along with the PF2 CRB rank, and I’ve found their movements to be pretty closely correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was in the 2000s the D&D PHB rank was around 30, when the PF2 CRB was in the low 5000s the D&D PHB rank was around 60, and now that the PF2 CRB is in the 4000s the D&D PHB rank is around 50.

This suggests that these short-term changes in rank have more to do with market forces on RPG sales in general than they do with the appeal of these particular games.
I think the Xmas jump was exactly that.
The very recent suddenly spike on PF2 followed by an equally rapid fall is consistent with the model described previously. If we assume that the number is somewhere in the 1 to 2 dozen a day range and someone somewhere bought 150 copies for a promotion (and yes, I'm totally making that up as a for instance) then that would produce the step change pulse we observed.

In other words, even if we foolishly assume that this amazon tracking methodology is better than putting a wet finger in a breeze to predict rain, it would still be true that day-to-day and week-to-week are more subject to the noise then the signal.

And the big vague picture still says that PF2E is crushing anything not 5E, but not anywhere near where I think the PF brand tentpole could be.
 

Mistwell

Legend
I’ve been checking the D&D PHB rank along with the PF2 CRB rank, and I’ve found their movements to be pretty closely correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was in the 2000s the D&D PHB rank was around 30, when the PF2 CRB was in the low 5000s the D&D PHB rank was around 60, and now that the PF2 CRB is in the 4000s the D&D PHB rank is around 50.

This suggests that these short-term changes in rank have more to do with market forces on RPG sales in general than they do with the appeal of these particular games.
PHB is #34 right now.
PF2 CRB is #4140 right now.
 

Mistwell

Legend
That is just astounding. That the core 5e books are STILL anywhere near the top 1000, let alone top 50, five years after release is just ... wow.
It's technically higher than that I just don't know how to calculate it. The PHB is in a number of combo packages that Amazon also sells.

For example, the Core Rules Gift Set (Special Foil Covers Edition with Slipcase, Player's Handbook, Dungeon Master's Guide, Monster Manual, DM Screen) currently rants #2,136 (for reference Pathfinder 2e Core Rulebook currently ranks #4,474).

But I don't know how to combine that gift set with the PHB itself. And there are a half-dozen of those combo categories, like the PHB with dice, or the PHB with dice and Complete Printable Kit, or the PHB with Dice and Dice Bag, etc., each with their own ranking.
 

Porridge

Villager
I’ve been checking the D&D PHB rank along with the PF2 CRB rank, and I’ve found their movements to be pretty closely correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was in the 2000s the D&D PHB rank was around 30, when the PF2 CRB was in the low 5000s the D&D PHB rank was around 60, and now that the PF2 CRB is in the 4000s the D&D PHB rank is around 50.

This suggests that these short-term changes in rank have more to do with market forces on RPG sales in general than they do with the appeal of these particular games.
PHB is #34 right now.
PF2 CRB is #4140 right now.
Yeah, there’s definitely a bit of variation from hour to hour with respect to their relative ranks. (Right now the PF2 CRB is 4186, and the 5e PHB is 51.)

But as far as I can tell, their general trajectories are pretty strongly correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was reliably in the 2000s for several days, the 5e PHB was also selling very well (I saw it in the high 20s a couple times, and never lower than in the 30s). Whereas when the PF2 CRB was slumming in the 5000s for a couple weeks, the 5e PHB also was generally pretty low (e.g., 60s).
 
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MerricB

Eternal Optimist
But as far as I can tell, their general trajectories are pretty strongly correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was reliably in the 2000s for several days, the 5e PHB was also selling very well (I saw it in the high 20s a couple times, and never lower than in the 30s). Whereas when the PF2 CRB was slumming in the 5000s for a couple weeks, the 5e PHB also was generally pretty low (e.g., 60s).
I wonder if this depends more on the TOP selling products (how many make a splash that week) rather than the sales of the PHB/CRB, which may be fairly steady.

Cheers!
 

Morrus

Well, that was fun
Staff member
Looks like the PF1 core paperback is not only out of stock at Amazon it doesn’t look like it’s coming back. Maybe? Amazon says “only available from 3rd party sellers” versus “out of stock”
Well, no, I can't imagine they'd be still printing it.
 

BryonD

Adventurer
The difference between "out of stock" vs 3rd party, IME, is "out of stock" means you can't buy it at all. But the system doesn't seem to be perfectly consistent.

Paizo did say that they would continue to print and sell the 1E pocketbooks as long as their was demand.
I agree that this seems more than a little surprising. (Perhaps they came to the choice after recognizing that the fanbase split ship had sailed. No idea...)

Maybe they changed their mind.
Maybe sales have already dropped. (Seems awful fast to have reached that conclusion, be it correct or not)
Maybe Amazon is out of stock, but will get more in.
As with everything else, just not enough data to give real answers.
 

Porridge

Villager
But per @darjr 's post it appears Amazon may no longer carry the pocket editions?
I’m pretty sure this is just some weirdness on Amazon’s end. I mean, Paizo has announced in the last month or two that they’re coming out with new pocket editions of several more PF1 books now that they’ve sold out of the originals.
 

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